How to Buy the Most Capital-Efficient Stocks, Safely

In today's Masters Series, we're sharing a piece written by our founder Porter Stansberry for the February 2012 issue of Stansberry's Investment Advisory. In this essay, Porter lays out the principles of one of his most important investing concepts – capital efficiency. It's a strategy that identifies the highest-quality businesses in the market. Even better, Porter explains how to tell when the price is right to buy these stocks. [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Master Series] Editor's note: Don't overthink your strategy... Despite the market putting together a strong first half this year, many investors are unsure about what to do with their money right now as a result of a potential recession looming over the economy. [But you can still find ways to profit amid this rampant market uncertainty](... In today's Masters Series, we're sharing a piece written by our founder Porter Stansberry for the February 2012 issue of Stansberry's Investment Advisory. In this essay, Porter lays out the principles of one of his most important investing concepts – capital efficiency. It's a strategy that identifies the highest-quality businesses in the market. Even better, Porter explains how to tell when the price is right to buy these stocks. Investing in capital-efficient business has led to many of the biggest winners in the newsletter's history – McDonald's (MCD), 248%; Shopify, 256%; Hershey's (HSY), 484%; Texas Pacific Land (TPL), 439%; and Microsoft (MSFT) 991%. It's one of the most important ideas for investors' long-term success… --------------------------------------------------------------- How to Buy the Most Capital-Efficient Stocks, Safely By Porter Stansberry, founder, Stansberry Research Make sure you save a copy of this letter. It's a step-by-step, paint-by-numbers guide to making a fortune in stocks. No, I can't promise that your investments will pan out as well as a few of mine have over the last few years. But I believe anyone is capable of becoming a world-class investor. You only need to know three things. These are the things I know work – no matter what else is happening in the world or in the markets. Let me explain... Investing is a simple game. The goal is to get the most in return for having given the least in exchange. Any serious study of this process will reveal that just a few variables control the outcome. First, the amount of capital employed is important. Thus, the cardinal rule is: Don't lose money. Money lost cannot be invested. Money lost will not compound. Second, time matters. The duration an investment may be held continuously with dividends reinvested is critical. And the third important factor is the rate of compound growth. What's funny about this list is how simple the game really is... and how few people pay any attention to the most basic rules. I doubt many subscribers consider these variables before they buy a stock. What most people consider is simply, "Will this stock go up? By how much? And when should I sell?" The questions they should be asking are almost the complete opposite. They should try to figure out... - How fast are these shares likely to compound, assuming I reinvest all of the dividends? - How long will I be able to hold this company safely? - And most important, what's the most I can safely pay for this stock? I share these ideas with a large amount of trepidation. These are not ideas that sell newsletters. You, gentle reader, may expect me to deliver the name of a stock that will surely double in the next month, then double again next year. Believe me, if it were that easy, I'd oblige. But the truth is a bit more complicated... --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Link: [Major Announcement From Porter Stansberry]( The government is broken... the economy is broken... financial systems are failing. What's next for America? On October 26, Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry will share his next big prediction. [To get the details, click here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- There's one exception... one sure way to get rich. And that is to buy capital-efficient businesses that have long-lived products and are capable of increasing payouts year after year. This approach is, without question, the best way to invest. It's exactly the approach master investor Warren Buffett uses. But it's difficult to explain. Worst of all... once you understand how it works, it's just too simple. All you have to do is buy the kind of companies that require little capital to operate and grow their businesses and therefore produce excess capital that they return to shareholders. Then, you reinvest that capital into more shares. Rinse and repeat. It's not much harder than washing your hair. And that means it's boring. But the truth is, using this strategy over time will produce returns that dwarf the gains you're likely to make by speculating, even if you're a great speculator. Best of all, my approach, which is based on capital efficiency, is totally safe and requires almost zero effort. The whole trick lies in understanding which companies are capital efficient and have good long-term prospects. Once you know that, you only buy when you can get the shares at such a low price that they essentially carry no risk. So how much should you pay for a stock like this, or any other long-term investment? This ends up being the most important variable, because the first rule of investing is "don't lose money." Remember... money you lose doesn't compound. Here's an easy rule of thumb to use when trying to figure out a safe price to pay for a stock... Just figure out how much money it would take to buy back every share at the current market price and add in the total net debt of the company. The number you'll end up with is called enterprise value ("EV"). That's the figure it would cost (in theory) for the company to buy itself. Next, figure out if there's any realistic way the company could afford to buy itself. Few companies actually go private this way, but bear with me. Imagine a company with an EV of $15 billion. For the company to borrow this much money, it would have to afford roughly $1 billion a year in interest payments (assuming 7% interest). If that's more than its operating income, it can't currently afford to buy itself. But if its operating income covers that amount, you've got yourself a winner. And your chances are better when shares are cheaper, of course – because this pushes down the EV. Doing this kind of analysis shows whether a company could realistically repay all of its debts and shares. Assuming it can afford to do both, there's no fundamental difference between the risk of its stock and the risk in its bonds – because all the bonds and shares could be repurchased. And that means on a fundamental basis, you're getting all the upside of the shares – all the upside of being an owner – with the same low risk of being a creditor. I call this buying at a "no risk" price. There's no additional risk to buying the equity compared with the debt. This is the best analysis to consider before you buy any stock – but especially one you're buying to hold for the long term. You have to make sure you will be comfortable enough to wait for the payoff. And the only way to do that is to buy capital-efficient companies... at good, safe prices. Regards, Porter Stansberry --------------------------------------------------------------- Editor's note: This simple strategy can help you thrive in the markets... but that doesn't mean it can protect you from what's coming next. That's why Porter is stepping forward to issue one of the most important warnings of his career. He's going on camera on October 26 to share his view about what's coming next and reveal what you must do with your money to prepare. [Learn more here](... --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Link: [Prepare Now: A Massive Wave of Bankruptcies Is Coming]( In 2009, Joel Litman warned investors about 57 different companies that were about to go bankrupt – 50 collapsed within days. Now Litman is stepping forward with another big bankruptcy warning. If you own a single share of stock – much less a business... a mortgage... or a loan of any kind – this will affect you. [Click here to learn more](. --------------------------------------------------------------- You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice. © 2023 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. 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