Fighting the Urge to Panic

Blowing off inflation... Cheaper Cocoa Puffs... Status quo for the Federal Reserve... Fighting the urge to panic... The 'rolling bull market' is still on... A few days from our biggest event of the year... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] Blowing off inflation... Cheaper Cocoa Puffs... Status quo for the Federal Reserve... Fighting the urge to panic... The 'rolling bull market' is still on... A few days from our biggest event of the year... --------------------------------------------------------------- We saw more shrugs about inflation today... I (Corey McLaughlin) [wrote yesterday]( that we'd be watching the market reaction today to the latest "official" inflation numbers, the consumer price index ("CPI") covering September. Another shrug – like yesterday's producer price index ("PPI") release received despite the numbers being above economists' consensus expectations – could be a further sign that investors are looking past high inflation as a major concern in the future. If that's the case, it means that fewer and fewer folks are concerned about additional Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes to "fight" inflation. These elevated rates have been a major headwind for the markets since last March when the central bank began raising the "cost of money." We continue to watch data points for signs of this trend. And this morning, we got another answer: More inflation. Ho-hum. September's CPI – which measures prices paid by U.S. consumers – rose 0.4% from a month ago and 3.7% from a year ago. Both figures are slightly higher than Wall Street expectations, but based on today's price action, the stock market could not have cared less. The benchmark S&P 500 Index was little changed until late-afternoon trading. Higher rent, cheaper cereal... The biggest driver of last month's headline inflation numbers was a higher cost of rent. But the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics also showed signs that underlying inflation is getting back to some semblance of a regular pace. Disinflation was even apparent in some sectors. Cereals like Cocoa Puffs and Raisin Bran, along with cakes and cookies, were apparently cheaper last month on balance than they were in August. As global news service Reuters reported... A 0.6% jump in the cost of shelter [accounted] for more than half of the rise [in the CPI]. There were increases in the costs of rent and hotel and motel accommodation... Gasoline prices rose 2.1% after accelerating 10.6% in August. Food prices climbed 0.2% for a third straight month. Grocery inflation edged up 0.1%. Consumers paid more for meat, fish and eggs, but prices of cereals and bakery products [fell 0.4%, the first drop] since June 2021. Fruit and vegetable prices were unchanged as were those of nonalcoholic beverages. Whether all of these numbers are "right" is another debate, of course. But what we were watching was how the market reacted to them. If investors didn't appear to have a fit over another set of higher-than-expected inflation numbers, it would be a notable tell... And that's just what we saw. The market doesn't think inflation is the biggest deal anymore. Or, at least, it doesn't think the folks at the Fed think it's the biggest deal anymore – and that additional rate hikes than are already expected (possibly one more this year) are unlikely. Stocks did sell off late in the day, sending the major indexes into the red. The catalyst wasn't entirely clear as we finished up today's Digest, but it didn't appear to be directly related to the latest inflation numbers, even though we saw some mainstream media outlets make the connection. Federal-funds futures traders are betting with 86% odds that the central bank won't hike rates at its November meeting, and they're penciling in a 33% shot of a 25-basis-point hike in December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. That's close to what expectations were yesterday. Talk about climbing a 'wall of worry'... As we wrote yesterday, the S&P 500 suddenly is back just slightly below its 50-day moving average and is still above its longer-term trend. This week, almost all of the major S&P 500 sectors but consumer staples are on pace for a winning week. Meantime, a war has been going on in Ukraine for 18 months that in many ways is a proxy battle between the West and the rest... Major global economic powers are on both sides. Now another bloody conflict in the Middle East has begun that has the potential to further include world influencers like Iran and Saudi Arabia in the fray in one way or another. (Unfortunately, in a geopolitics notebook that I refer to and update from time to time, I've diagramed a two-sided list of various nations under the heading "World War III," organized into allied groups. The U.S. and U.K. top one side, with China and Russia heading the other. India, notably, is floating around near the middle of the sketch.) The latest conflict in the Middle East does have the potential to further disrupt global oil supply, and stoke inflation, but thus far, investors don't seem all that concerned. After Monday's oil spike that we wrote about, Brent crude – the international benchmark – has drifted slightly lower the past few days to less than $86 per barrel... A reminder: Don't panic... We read with interest today our friend Marc Chaikin's take on Hamas' terrorist attack on Israel and the response and market reaction. Marc is the founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics and one of the savviest investors I've ever met, with five decades of professional experience... He has been telling subscribers for nearly a year that stocks have been in a "rolling bull market" – meaning that different sectors are taking turns pushing the broad market higher. And the latest developments in the Middle East haven't changed his mind. As he wrote to readers of [his free Chaikin PowerFeed newsletter this morning](... In short, the attack from Hamas happened as the market heads into mid-October. It's a time when panic often hits the market in one way or another. Many folks will likely get spooked in the days ahead. Fears of an extended conflict could drive oil prices sharply higher and stocks lower. As we'll discuss today, support levels in the S&P 500 Index will likely be tested (and perhaps broken). That's especially true if the conflict expands further into the Middle East. If it involves other groups like Hezbollah and its Iranian sponsors, volatility could surge in the market. But importantly, this development isn't a reason to panic... Marc referenced what we did yesterday... that the S&P 500 has stayed above its 200-day moving average even after the pullback it suffered the past two months and the latest geopolitical developments. And he continued... At the same time, we're now in the sweet spot of the year when stocks often make a "V-shaped" bottom. Historically, they rally in November and December to end the year. So here's the deal... I still believe the "rolling bull market" is alive and well. And once investors assess the situation in the Middle East, we'll likely get a buyable bottom in stocks. Marc said he's "cautious on stocks today" and is watching support levels. But he strongly suggests that folks stay calm over the next couple of weeks, no matter what happens... Given all the uncertainty, I understand if you're uncomfortable with your current exposure to stocks. If that's the case, then sell down to your "sleep well at night" level. But whatever you do, don't panic. Our colleague and DailyWealth Trader editor Chris Igou alluded to the same idea [to his subscribers today]( pointing out that the market is rewarding those "who didn't panic" after the late summer/early fall sell-off in stocks. Chris got into detail on a pair of indicators that he uses to pinpoint near-term tops and bottoms in the broader market and explained how they have worked this time again to avoid succumbing to knee-jerk reactions. [Check out his full issue today for more](. We're just a few days from our biggest event of the year... As I've been mentioning lately, we're just days away from our annual Stansberry Research conference, and I couldn't be more excited. Not only we will get to see so many of our colleagues and friends in person, and in Las Vegas... but we're also looking forward to hearing sharp market insight from folks like Marc and Chris, along with various opinions and takes from our team and invited guests all in one spot. We've got tons of great speakers lined up, including your favorite Stansberry Research editors and analysts like Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig, Dan Ferris, Eric Wade, Greg Diamond, Dave Lashmet, and Brett Eversole... and invited guests like Morgan Housel, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Josh Brown, Ben Mezrich, and Lance Armstrong (yes, that Lance Armstrong – the former cyclist who now has investing interests). Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry will be there live on stage, too. So will other familiar faces like Meb Faber, Rick Rule, and Empire Financial Research founder Whitney Tilson. Next week, I will share highlights from the conference in the Digest and try to give you a sense of what's going on "in the room" and in the hallways and casinos at the Encore at Wynn Las Vegas. That'll give you a taste of our biggest event of the year. But if you aren't going to be in Vegas yourself, I'd also encourage you to consider getting access to our livestream. You can watch the presentations and hear all the recommendations from the comfort of your couch or office, and you'll get access to on-demand recordings, breakout sessions, and transcripts of all presentations. You can pause or rewatch as many times as you like through the end of the year. [Click here for more details about our livestream package](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: # [TODAY: $1 Billion Manager Unveils Breakthrough AI]( A $1 billion money manager is unveiling a new type of investing that could triple your portfolio, using an AI system that can predict where any stock will trade in 21 days, with 82% accuracy. It recently predicted Netflix within 7 cents! [Click here to learn more and claim free access to the system](. --------------------------------------------------------------- # [Prepare Now: A Massive Wave of Bankruptcies Is Coming]( In 2009, Joel Litman warned investors about 57 different companies that were about to go bankrupt – 50 collapsed within days. Now Litman is stepping forward with another big bankruptcy warning. If you own a single share of stock – much less a business... a mortgage... or a loan of any kind – this will affect you. [Click here to learn more](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 10/11/23): Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), CME Group (CME), Alphabet (GOOGL), Structure Therapeutics (GPCR), Eli Lilly (LLY), Meta Platforms (META), Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Trane Technologies (TT), Textron (TXT), and VMware (VMW). A quiet mailbag for the first time in a while today... Do you have a comment, question, or topic you'd like to see us cover? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland October 12, 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,204.6% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,044.9% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 894.9% Extreme Value Ferris wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 604.3% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 573.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 517.8% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 464.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 385.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 342.5% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel ALS-T Altius Minerals 02/16/09 308.0% Extreme Value Ferris Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 2 Extreme Value Ferris 2 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel/Wade --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 1,456.3% Crypto Capital Wade ONE-USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,036.2% Crypto Capital Wade POLY/USD Polymath 05/19/20 1,022.6% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 757.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 615.8% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. 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