The Leaders of the Weight-Loss-Drug Race Win Again

A report from Dave Lashmet... Big moves in the weight-loss-drug race... $50 billion in new market cap in a single day... Weight loss in a bottle... How the sausage is made... What's next in the obesity fight... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] A report from Dave Lashmet... Big moves in the weight-loss-drug race... $50 billion in new market cap in a single day... Weight loss in a bottle... How the sausage is made... What's next in the obesity fight... --------------------------------------------------------------- Today, we're pleased to bring you a special report from our friend Dave Lashmet... Regular Digest readers may recall that Dave, editor of the Stansberry Venture Technology newsletter, most recently [wrote to you directly in June]( when he detailed the escalating tensions between China and the U.S. in the Taiwan Strait. He analyzed the impact of a brewing war in Taiwan on various semiconductor companies... tech and other industries in general... and which businesses were most likely to survive a potential war in Taiwan. This is a story Dave, one of the first employees of Stansberry Research, has been ahead of for years. He has recommended stocks related to this theme in Venture Technology, which focuses on little-known small-cap companies that are working on potentially the next world-changing drug or other technology. Speaking of that, you can find one of Dave's picks each day at the bottom of the Digest e-mail in the Stansberry Research Hall of Fame... Dave recommended chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) back in 2016 when it was trading for less than $50 per share. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia – which included returns of about 108%, 777%, and then 1,466% on partial positions – could have booked an average weighted gain of more than 600%. But there's much, much more to his work than that big winner... Since launching his Venture Technology service in 2014, Dave has recommended more than 30 stocks that have doubled or more. And returns aside, he's one of the smartest and most prescient market analysts I (Corey McLaughlin) have ever met. You may remember Dave being one of the few voices [warning in February 2020]( about what the emerging coronavirus was and how large of a threat it entailed for the global economy. Today, Dave returns to another big theme he has been tracking for the past several years: the obesity epidemic in America. Specifically, he has his eye on the companies developing drugs designed to help people lose weight... separating mere wishful thinking from the treatments that hold real and lucrative promise. As Dave explains, two companies he is very familiar with and has previously written about in the Digest enjoyed massive jumps in their stock prices yesterday. He got in touch with me last night and said, "Hey, that's something!" I agreed. Shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO), which Dave "gave away" as a free pick during a 2020 presentation, jumped 17% yesterday alone... and Eli Lilly (LLY), which Dave wrote about [in a June 2022 essay]( soared about 15% too. Today, he shares all the details about why... Big companies make big moves all the time – for better or worse. But here, it's clearly better... Yesterday, Novo Nordisk reported that its injectable weight-loss drug Wegovy reduced the risks of heart attacks or strokes by 20%. In response, Novo added $50 billion to its market cap in a single day. Was the move justified? I think so. Mr. Market is sometimes more flight-of-fancy than a value investor... In this case, he is both... Wegovy is a blockbuster weight-loss drug that already has Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") approval... And the world can't get enough of it. You've probably heard the stories of Hollywood starlets taking Wegovy (or Novo Nordisk's other brand name for the same drug, Ozempic). Eli Lilly is developing a rival drug called Mounjaro – we'll get to that momentarily. Novo gets 85% gross margins and 45% net margins on Wegovy sales. Without getting too much into the weeds, for a $50 billion bump in market cap at those margins, I would expect $12 billion in additional annual revenue and/or $5 billion in earnings before interest and taxes. As I'll explain, that's entirely reasonable here. Behind the headlines is the big picture... Two in five American adults are obese. That's 110 million Americans, plus 240 million more folks in Europe. Add Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and the number rises to something like 400 million people. That's the global obesity epidemic, which has slowly been growing for the last 40 years. Add sugar, cut exercise – like riding your bike to work – and you get obese. Add caramel syrup, you'll get fatter faster. Until three years ago, it was a social taboo to even discuss drugs that may be able to help people lose weight... though [we were](. But lower-dose Ozempic triggered minor weight loss, and higher-dose Wegovy (again, it's the same drug: semaglutide) triggered massive weight loss. I (Dave Lashmet) went to the American Diabetes Association meetings [last June]( to see the weight-loss results from Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, too. At a higher dose, it was slightly better than Wegovy. But they are nearly identical. So now severe obesity is treatable... And given supply limitations, ideally only very large, really sick people would be eligible for these drugs. That expectation is what set Novo Nordisk's market cap – until yesterday. Here's what changed... Novo Nordisk's SELECT trial reported on 17,000 heart patients taking Wegovy or a matched placebo, for 30 to 60 months. This was a double-blind trial: Neither the doctors nor patients knew who got the drug. This trial started in 2018 and finished this June, and it had an uphill battle: COVID-19. You see, the COVID virus overwhelmingly preyed on older, overweight heart patients – exactly like this trial included. Despite this limitation, Novo's Wegovy reduced their risk of heart attack, stroke, or death from a heart condition by 20%. It's likely because folks on the drug lost weight, which significantly lowered their risk. That's not a guess – we see this level of heart-attack protection after stomach-banding surgery, which brings weight loss. But surgery is expensive and traumatic, and it risks the patient getting hospital infections. Wegovy is like stomach-banding surgery without the surgery. It's weight loss in a bottle. For investors, what changed is how the drug is sold... For now, Wegovy prescriptions come mostly from specialty weight-loss clinics or diabetes specialists. These findings about its broader medical value could lead to heart doctors and general practitioners prescribing the drug as well. Instead of the tip of the iceberg, it's the iceberg. There's no rationing of this drug for just severely obese patients. Instead, Wegovy can be used as a general treatment for heart conditions. That's a huge, known market... For example, nearly 200 million people globally take daily cholesterol-lowering drugs to reduce their heart risks – including 150 million people who take statins. Even with generics, it's a $20 billion market. The goal of all these cholesterol-lowering drugs is to save us from the effects of a diet rich in animal fat. This fat builds up in our veins, and if it ever breaks up to float free, it triggers heart attacks or strokes. Likewise, the World Health Organization reports that 200 million people control their blood pressure through medication. And it just so happens, the No. 1 cause of high blood pressure is obesity. It's because you only have one pump: your heart. This vital organ moves water, food, and oxygen around your body. And if you gain weight, the only way to serve the extra tissue is for the pump to work harder. How the 'sausage' is made... Granted, we don't expect Wegovy or Mounjaro to replace all 200 million statins or cholesterol medicines... not least because Wegovy and Mounjaro are protein drugs, which are far harder to make. First, you need a "bioreactor" – basically a living pool of cells that can make a protein – and then you must put sugars on the drug correctly. From there, you need to purify the drug and bottle it for shipment. So it's a lot more complicated than a pure chemical process that spits out a thousand pills like M&M's. Fortunately, there are bioreactors available for hire, especially given the global falloff in demand for COVID vaccines. Moving forward, we expect both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to capture as much of this capacity as they can. Both firms are also building factories themselves. Yet they are years away from meeting demand. Already, Eli Lilly has raised its guidance by $2 billion based on demand for Mounjaro – which has reached nearly $1 billion in quarterly sales. Novo Nordisk had $5 billion in sales on its rival drugs last quarter. Novo Nordisk reports its new quarterly statement tomorrow... What you should expect is higher revenues, higher margins, and even more emphasis on manufacturing capacity. Plus one more thing... Besides Wegovy and Ozempic, Novo Nordisk has a third version of this same drug. It's called Rybelsus, and it's a once-daily pill. Its other drugs in this class – plus Lilly's Mounjaro – are weekly injectables. Back in May, Novo Nordisk reported that a new higher dose of Rybelsus – at 50 milligrams – triggered 10% weight loss in 70% of people who took this pill versus only 12% of the control group. So this pill works. That means this pill should also reduce heart attacks and strokes. It's the same drug, just in a different form: a pill, instead of a weekly injection under the skin. Which one would you rather take? In an ideal world, this is the real blockbuster. Yet as a practical matter, we should point out, the recommended dose of Wegovy is 2.4 milligrams per week – while Rybelsus' trial dosage came to 50 milligrams per day. Even though Novo Nordisk expects to offer Rybelsus only in smaller doses, it can still serve far more patients with injectable vials than by producing this medication in pill form. And since the drugs are priced the same, Novo would much rather make Wegovy. There's one other idea to consider for investors... The ultimate weight-loss winner might be a small molecule drug that can be manufactured in huge volumes, like a statin drug is – not a protein – that reduces your weight and also cuts your heart-attack risk. The race for this rare prize is currently being led by Eli Lilly. This experimental drug – currently named "orforglipron" – is not ready for sales, though. This pill is only through mid-stage human clinical trials, and even if it proves to be safe and effective on a larger scale, it's five years from the market. Until then, the safest course is Novo Nordisk... followed by Eli Lilly's existing Mounjaro. That's today's medical news for investors, as I see it... This is life-saving medicine with a $12 billion annual revenue bump, as all these new weight-loss drugs go mainstream. That's why the market was excited yesterday, amid a mostly otherwise down day, and that's why Novo Nordisk gained $50 billion in market cap. My Venture Technology subscribers are now sitting on a 145% gain in Novo shares since my initial recommendation back in June 2020 (even factoring in the shares that we already sold back at 100%). And I will certainly keep everyone updated on the developments in the weight-loss-drug race moving ahead. If you're interested in joining us and learning more about how we go about investing in these companies, get started with a subscription to Venture Technology today... My research isn't cheap... But I delve into smaller companies you won't usually see covered elsewhere. Without a Venture Technology subscription, you'll likely hear about them only after they've taken off. And right now, you can claim a 55% discount off our regular subscription price... [Click here for more information]( including more about my background, what other subscribers think of the newsletter, the results we've had over the years, and how you can access the newsletter with our lowest-price special offer today. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [It's Not Flashy, It's Not Sexy, but It Just Flat-Out WORKS!]( Top value expert Dan Ferris is stepping forward to show you – for FREE – the secret behind his biggest winners. He's sharing the large gains his readers could've made, such as 406% on Prestige Brands... 201% on Alexander & {NAME}... and a massive 629% on Constellation Brands. This strategy is dead simple to use and only requires checking five boxes on any stock. Plus, get details on how it has led him to his latest shortlist of recommendations, which could double or triple from here if you act immediately. [Get the details here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Stock Alert: The Great AI Bubble of 2023]( He called the Priceline collapse in 2012, the 2020 crash, and the 2022 bear market. Today, he's issuing a new warning for America's favorite AI stocks. If you're holding Nvidia or any FAANG stocks right now, it's time to prepare for a massive shift. [Click here for his new warning (includes the No. 1 AI stock recommendation)](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 8/8/23): Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Dice Therapeutics (DICE), Fortive (FTV), Gambling.com (GAMB), ICON (ICLR), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Procter & Gamble (PG), Parker-Hannifin (PH), PulteGroup (PHM), Phillips 66 (PSX), SLB (SLB), Walmart (WMT), and West Pharmaceutical Services (WST). In today's mailbag, feedback on [yesterday's Digest]( about bank downgrades and the next credit crisis... Do you have a comment or question? Send your notes to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Corey, well said. I have been 'nervous' about credit liabilities too, and Moody's did exactly what you would expect a high-class Credit Agency before they so rudely lower the boom on Yellen's Treasury sales (like Fitch), which inevitably will squeeze CRE et al, as new banking rules force accumulating more Treasuries and therefore reduce capital available for loans." – Stansberry Alliance member Bill B. Good investing, Dave Lashmet with Corey McLaughlin Seattle, Washington and Baltimore, Maryland August 9, 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,184.7% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,022.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 887.2% Extreme Value Ferris wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 703.9% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 553.9% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 544.9% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 541.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 392.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 343.8% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel FSMEX Fidelity Sel Med 09/03/08 310.2% Retirement Millionaire Doc Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel/Wade 1 Extreme Value Ferris --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 1,602.5% Crypto Capital Wade ONE-USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,067.3% Crypto Capital Wade POLY/USD Polymath 05/19/20 1,035.5% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 804.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 692.7% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You're receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. 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