If You're Sick of Jerome Powell, Try This

A no-show to work... The jobs market is still 'strong'... A recipe for more pain... A new environment is unfolding before our eyes... Alternative options... If you're sick of Jerome Powell, try this... Doc's best offer ever for Retirement Trader... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] A no-show to work... The jobs market is still 'strong'... A recipe for more pain... A new environment is unfolding before our eyes... Alternative options... If you're sick of Jerome Powell, try this... [Doc's best offer ever for Retirement Trader](... --------------------------------------------------------------- Who needs to work anyway? This morning, as I patiently waited for food at a local breakfast shop (ordered via a self-service kiosk), I overheard a telling conversation from what appeared to be a college student with a job somewhere else (for now)... She was talking to a friend as she waited for her order... "I forgot I had work today," she said, reading a text message on her phone, which I presumed to be from a boss or coworker. "I'm supposed to be working right now." Then someone who was actually working in the store called the young lady's name aloud. Her food was ready, and she left with a full bag, paid for in advance via a smartphone app. It didn't look like she was going to work anytime soon. Sick day, I guess... I bring this up not to make a commentary on today's youth or sound like a grumpy old man – though I'm sure it sounds like I am – but because it reminded me about the state of today's jobs market... and what it could mean for the economy and markets in the year ahead. It seems that a lot of people in the U.S. today aren't afraid of not showing up for work. They either don't need to or think they can just get another job if it suits them, inflation be damned. As of the latest count, there are more than 10 million open jobs in the U.S... These might not be everyone's dream jobs. But on balance, workers still have leverage to job-hop to a higher-paying gig... or evidently to not show up at all. The story I overheard this morning was not the first example I have encountered... In the past month alone, one friend who works in a retail store told me an employee just stopped showing up to work with no explanation. They didn't hear from her until they called the police. Another friend told me they've hired multiple people at his office who didn't show up for their first day. People have not shown up to jobs as long as there have been employees, but these anecdotes today seem unusually common. Forget that I still remain naively surprised why anyone would simply not show up to a paying job in a world of 40-year high inflation. It's happening. And whether most people know it or not, it's because by "official" measures, the labor market is still strong... If someone wants a job, they can probably find one... As our Stansberry NewsWire editor C. Scott Garliss [reported earlier this week]( the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September. The number of job openings came in at 10.7 million compared with the expectation of 9.75 million. As Scott wrote, this was a rebound from a few months of declining openings, and it means the economy still has nearly two job openings for every unemployed person... As Scott also [reported today]( the number of weekly unemployment claims is still relatively low, below pre-pandemic averages. This is important information for investors, who are eyeing the direction the economy will take in the months ahead... And job openings and unemployment data are big indicators that the Federal Reserve uses when it weighs whether or not the economy can handle higher interest rates in an attempt to bring down high inflation. And, as you likely know by now, higher interest rates tend to hurt stock prices. They are a headwind. As Warren Buffett has famously said... Interest rates are to asset prices like gravity is to the apple. They power everything in the economic universe... When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices. And the opposite is also true. When interest rates go higher, stocks, bonds, and other assets with a connection to our debt-fueled financial system feel a stronger gravitational pull... and can lose value in terms of dollars. A recipe for more 'pain'... This discussion about the jobs market was among the topics that came up yesterday in Fed Chair Jerome Powell's long and winding press conference, during which the major U.S. stock indexes gyrated wildly on several unexpected comments. A brief recap... Yesterday, Powell simultaneously said the central bank could slow rate hikes starting next month (to perhaps 50 basis points), but that its benchmark lending rate could ultimately go higher than the Fed has previously indicated, which was about 4.5% as of last month. The Fed isn't the only thing that matters to the stock market, and it can matter less so to individual stocks than the overall market. But the central bank does have an influence, as [yesterday's moves during Powell's press conference]( showed... Higher interest-rate policies make dollars more "expensive" and business a bit more difficult for companies that love to use debt to finance growth... When you compare the major indexes on a given day and see the growth-heavy, small-cap Russell 2000 down more than the sturdy Dow Jones Industrial Average – like it was yesterday (off 3.4% and 1.6%, respectively) – it's a good bet you can chalk up the difference to something clouding the "growth" picture, like interest-rate speculation... The Fed's job description... Remember, the Fed has a dual mandate from Congress for "maximum employment" and "stable prices," and it prefers not to see a financial or banking crisis unfold under its watch, either. (So far, so good. Though the same can't be said for everywhere around the world.) Powell said yesterday that the U.S. jobs market and wage growth (roughly 5% year over year on average) was still so strong that it wasn't an impediment for higher rate policy. As he said... The broader picture is of an overheated labor market where demand substantially exceeds supply... We keep looking for signs [that] the beginning of a gradual softening is happening. Maybe that's there, but it's not obvious to me because wages are not coming down. They're just moving sideways at an elevated level. We would love to see vacancies coming down... They are below their all-time high, but not by as much as we thought... I don't see the case for real softening just yet. And he suggested the economy can handle tougher conditions for longer, given the near all-time low unemployment rate of 3.5% and a plateaued labor force participation rate (around 62% this year). That's about 1.5% less than before the pandemic. The U.S. has added about five million people to the measured work-eligible population since February 2020. But the same number of people are working today as back then (roughly 165 million). If about three million people are compelled to take new jobs – which would bring the workforce participation rate back to pre-pandemic levels – and seven million open jobs are eliminated, we could see a labor market equilibrium. But that assumes no layoffs, which is difficult to imagine since they are already happening in certain industries. But Powell said... We do think that this labor market can soften without having to soften as much as history would indicate through unemployment. It can soften through job openings declining. We think there's room for that, but we won't know that. That will be discovered... We can debate or hypothesize about whether the jobs market is really strong or not, and why. But it sounds like Powell thinks the economy can handle more pain. (I know a lot of you are small business owners, so I'd welcome your take at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.) This is why [the markets can be perverse](... Good news – like a lot of job openings and low unemployment – can be bad for stocks. It means there's room for the economy to slow down. High inflation and higher wages are also an indication. If you are looking at the Fed's policy path in simple terms, it comes down to two items. First, is inflation still too high? (Yes, near an all-time high.) And second, is unemployment too high? (No, it's actually at a 50-year low.) So, if you are looking at this logically, all the Fed should do is keep raising rates and trimming its balance sheet until further notice. That doesn't guarantee inflation will go down by a lot, but it does mean interest rates are heading higher... and economic growth is likely to keep slowing down. In the meantime, the stock market is likely to remain volatile. Prepare accordingly. We've shared a few strategies for where to put your money this year... It began in January with our friend and Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond's warning that a "top" was in for U.S. stocks. We shared a variety of bear market warnings, too, and cautioned about relying on the conventional 60/40 stock and bond portfolio in an "expensive stocks/high inflation" world. And our team of editors and analysts continued sharing advice in much more detail starting in April, with our Stansberry's Financial Survival Program... First, of course, cash is your best friend in a bear market... Not only is holding cash a way to preserve your hard-earned capital in a down market, but it gives you what finance types like to call "optionality" – or the option to put cash to work when you see a good buying opportunity... Second, so long as the U.S. dollar is getting relatively stronger compared with other major world currencies, "cash like" investments – like short-term Treasurys – become more attractive. A three-month T-bill is offering a 4.1% annualized yield today, for example. If you are up for short-term trading, you could also be betting on short-term moves – up or down – like Greg recommends in Ten Stock Trader or our colleague Chris Igou recommends in DailyWealth Trader. And, as we've been saying very recently, more and more stocks are starting to trade above their long-term trends. Of course, this is easier when those trends have been down all year long. But that's the point... How much lower can stocks go? Opinions vary depending on who you ask, but there's no doubt certain stocks have been trending higher the past few months. We mentioned high-quality names like Hershey (HSY) and insurance stocks yesterday (which can benefit in a higher interest-rate environment). As Greg, who recently called a bottom in U.S. stocks, wrote to his subscribers [in an update today](... It's important to watch stocks in this new environment, one that's unfolding right before our eyes. While there will be new lows in some stocks, there's also new leadership forming. Energy stocks have also been outperforming for more than a year now... while tech stocks aren't. But if buying stocks still seems to be too risky for you right now and you're sick of making sense of whatever Jerome Powell might be saying, consider another option. There is an alternative to buying and holding and hoping... Make money from everyone else's fear... No matter what we think, there's a good chance enough folks in the market are going to be nervous for much of next year... We don't know exactly what the economy is going to look like, but I'm willing to bet recession fears (or realities) will be present, especially if interest rates continue to rise... But the great thing about the trading strategy I'm about to mention is that we don't need to know anything for sure... except how to make the trades. And you will have a good guide for that. As I mentioned the other day, volatility – or fear – has been trending upward. You might feel this in your bones, but we can see it in the markets in hard data via the CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX"). The index measures the expected volatility in the S&P 500 Index over the next 30 days based on the prices traders are willing to pay for put or call options for a wide range of stocks. If you look at a chart of the VIX, it has been making higher lows since late 2021, meaning the price for options trades has been rising overall for about a year now. You can also see volatility has been volatile itself, spiking in cycles, but staying relatively high... We consider any VIX reading above 20 to be high, and 30 and above to be extreme. Today, it checks in around 25. If you read any [of Tuesday's Digest]( you should know where I'm going with this. This fear is an opportunity... Our Dr. David 'Doc' Eifrig has a winning strategy... For more than a decade, Doc has showed tens of thousands of subscribers how to make money from other people's fear... This is a simple and safe strategy, if done correctly. And you will find no better guide than Doc. As we wrote Tuesday, he is sitting on a new personal-best record of 140 consecutive winning trades using this strategy in his Retirement Trader advisory... Doc calls this method of trading his all-time favorite. That's because it works in almost any investing environment – especially one that is loaded with fear – and delivers consistent, reliable income without worrying as much about daily stock market movement. Take this year for instance... Doc's Retirement Trader subscribers have made 21% annualized returns on average... in a bear market. (We usually don't quote annualized returns, but they matter with this strategy in particular because of the nature and number of trades.) I will be up front... This is an options-based strategy, but don't let that idea scare you. I know when many people think about options, they think about buying options, or leveraged bets that can either pay off big time or wipe you out if you get things a little bit wrong. Doc flips conventional options logic on its head... and that's exactly where he finds the opportunity to make money from other people's fear. In Retirement Trader, Doc recommends selling options, which is basically the equivalent of selling insurance to other traders... It's not as complicated as you might think... And it's not as risky as owning stocks outright. That's because Doc only recommends trades on companies that he fully understands, and that he believes offer a high margin of safety. Importantly, people are willing to pay a premium for insurance today... hence Doc's returns this year, which he made on 40 closed trades while the broader markets were down 20% or 30%, depending on which index you use. As we wrote Tuesday... Doc's strategy works in 'fearful' times – and most others... In other words... Bring the pain, Jerome Powell. Bring on any other risk out there. That's just fine... As the name of the publication suggests, Retirement Trader can work especially well for folks in or near retirement. Many subscribers have told us it's a critical part of their retirement income and have come to love selling options. But the strategy can be worthwhile for anyone... especially if stocks move largely sideways amid higher inflation. If we don't see the kind of returns in stocks that we did over the past 10 or 15 years, you can still use this strategy to make money... If you want to learn more, there is no better time than right now. For this week only, in celebration of his new record of 140 straight winning trades, Doc is making his best offer ever for folks to subscribe to Retirement Trader. You can try the service for an all-time low entry price. Plus, Doc is tripling our typical satisfaction guarantee. You can try out the strategy for yourself, read over all the information and special reports, and see if it's right for you... If not, you can cancel. [Click here for more details]( and get started today. Why This $1.2 Trillion Market Was Overlooked Cormac Kinney, founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, explains to our editor-at-large Daniela Cambone the details about a potentially strong portfolio diversifier that is gaining more institutional interest... [Click here]( to watch this episode of the Daniela Cambone Show right now. And to catch all of Matt's shows and more videos and podcasts from the Stansberry Research team, be sure to [visit our Stansberry Investor platform]( anytime. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [A Stansberry Research Celebration: 140 Straight Wins and a 94% Win Rate]( Would you bet on a 94% success rate? How about if that also included 140 wins in a row (with NO losers)... spanning two and a half years... in THIS market? That's exactly what Dr. David Eifrig has just achieved – beating his previous record of 136 wins – in his No. 1 all-time favorite strategy. This week only, get the full details and claim your celebration "gift" from Doc [right here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Will This Be the Worst U.S. Crisis Ever?]( A wealthy 73-year-old U.S. entrepreneur retreats to one of his three European properties to issue a serious warning (and four recommendations) for Americans. "It falls on someone like me to warn you clearly. I'm too rich to care about money – and too old to care what anyone thinks." [Click here for the details](... --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 11/2/22): Black Stone Minerals (BSM), Freehold Royalties (FRU.TO), and Humana (HUM). In today's mailbag, some thoughts on the Fed from the world of fiction... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "I know the subject of this e-mail is a bit over analyzed. I picked up a novel by David Baldacci, Total Control. In it, one of the plot lines involves the Federal Reserve. It was published in 1987. In it, one of the Federal Reserve's presidents says something like we know by a certain interest rate raise they know exactly how many job losses, bankruptcies, foreclosures, etc. will occur. Oh my. Anyway this is fiction from 25 years ago, right? "Just to say I read everything you publish and am happy with my membership." – Stansberry Alliance member Jeffrey G. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland November 3, 2022 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst ADP Automatic Data 10/09/08 839.2% Extreme Value Ferris MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 783.8% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 671.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter HSY Hershey 12/07/07 560.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ETH/USD Ethereum 02/21/20 542.2% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade AFG American Financial 10/12/12 443.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 420.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 413.2% Retirement Millionaire Doc TPL Texas Pacific Land 11/05/20 371.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Gula ALS-T Altius Minerals 02/16/09 311.6% Extreme Value Ferris Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula 2 Extreme Value Ferris 2 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Stansberry Innovations Report Wade --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst ETH/USD Ethereum 12/07/18 1,260.1% Crypto Capital Wade ONE-USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,148.6% Crypto Capital Wade POLY/USD Polymath 05/19/20 1,093.4% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 856.6% Crypto Capital Wade TONE/USD TE-FOOD 12/17/19 492.1% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. 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