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An Economic Winter Is Coming

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Understanding credit cycles... Dark clouds on the horizon... An economic winter is coming... Why sto

Understanding credit cycles... Dark clouds on the horizon... An economic winter is coming... Why stocks will get much cheaper... Our complacency indicator is in freefall... How the world's best investors profit from these conditions... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] Understanding credit cycles... Dark clouds on the horizon... An economic winter is coming... Why stocks will get much cheaper... Our complacency indicator is in freefall... How the world's best investors profit from these conditions... --------------------------------------------------------------- We are living in strange times... The latest "official" read on inflation – the consumer price index ("CPI") – was released this morning, and a few tenths of a percentage made all the difference. Here's what I (Mike DiBiase) mean... August's CPI – a measure of prices paid for things like energy, housing, and health care – showed an 8.3% increase over this time a year ago. That's down from the 8.5% annual increase in July, but it was above Wall Street's consensus expectation of 8.1%. A couple tenths of a percent in the wrong direction sent the markets plunging, with the S&P 500 Index selling off roughly 4% today and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index down about 5%. It was the market's biggest one-day drop since June 2020. This shows you just how sensitive and uncertain the topic of inflation is for Wall Street. Had this one inflation number come in at 7.9% or 8% – or anything lower than the 8.1% investors hoped for – the markets likely would have rallied. That's what happened last month when July's inflation reading was lower than the 8.7% investors expected. The S&P 500 Index rose 2% that day, and the Nasdaq jumped 3%. This illustrates what a fine line the market is straddling right now. These are extreme reactions considering we're talking about a difference of a few tenths of a percentage point. The bigger picture investors seem to be missing is that inflation north of 6% is still incredibly high... not even in the stratosphere of the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Bulls are looking for any small hope to cling to as a reason to pile back into stocks. They'll now have to wait for next month's CPI release to find any hope that prices are falling. In the meantime, the bulls will likely turn their attention to signs our economy is growing again... You see, the Fed's Atlanta branch is forecasting U.S. gross domestic product ("GDP") to grow 1.3% this quarter after shrinking in the past two quarters. If they are right – and that's a big if, considering their recent forecasting prowess – I predict it will send the markets higher (in the short term) as many investors will conclude the U.S. economy has climbed out of a recession. That is, if they even believed we're in a recession to begin with... Some folks, like President Joe Biden, say we're not. As we all know, the definition of a recession is up for debate these days... Even though we've had two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, recession deniers argue it just doesn't feel "right" to call it a recession since all of the economic data isn't bad. And, they'll say, if the economy is about to grow again, who really cares anyway? Well, I do... And I expect a lot of other people will soon, too. In today's Digest, I'll explain why it doesn't matter whether inflation falls a few tenths of a percentage from one month to the next... or whether you want to pretend we're not in a recession. What matters to your portfolio's future returns is what's coming next. If you think we're getting close to the time where it's wise to go "all in" on stocks again, I urge you to keep reading. Sure, our economy could manage to somehow grow this quarter. But either way, when I look into the near future, one thing is clear to me... Things are about to get much worse... There are dark economic clouds on the horizon. No matter what the GDP numbers say about the third quarter of 2022, I believe we're in the midst of a deep, prolonged period of slowing economic growth. And things are going to get worse before they get better. As more folks wake up to this economic reality, it will trigger an even deeper sell-off in the stock market... and set off the next credit crisis. Let me be clear... this isn't something I want to happen. But if it is going to happen, as my colleague Dan Ferris likes to point out, it's better to be prepared for it. And it's even better if there's a way to profit from it. Fortunately, there is... Even though my outlook for the economy is gloomy, informed investors can still make money. Successful long-term investors must understand credit cycles... As editor of Stansberry Research's corporate-bond newsletter, Stansberry's Credit Opportunities, it's my job to monitor what's going on in the credit market. Credit cycles are a "normal" part of the economy. A full-blown credit crisis occurs about once a decade. The last one was in 2008 to 2009. The one before that was in 2001. So we're overdue. Here's what's important... There's no need to fear recessions or credit crises. Once you accept this, you can prepare your portfolio so it doesn't have to suffer through them. Credit cycles are easy to understand... When times are good, lenders (like banks, private-equity firms, and institutional investors) begin loosening their underwriting standards. That leads to a period of "easy" credit. As the credit pool expands, lenders eventually run out of people with good credit to lend to. Chasing profits, they target borrowers lower and lower on the credit ladder. Eventually, some of the low-quality loans begin to go bad. People or companies can't afford to make their loan payments... for whatever reasons. (Today, for example, it might be the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates.) That's when creditors start to "tighten" their lending standards. That means loans are harder to get, the loan sizes are smaller, and the terms of the loans are more favorable to lenders. This slows the economy, making it harder for other borrowers to repay their loans. Delinquencies lead to defaults, which lead to bankruptcies – both at the corporate and individual levels. Credit dries up. The result is a credit crisis. It clears out the bad debt and poor underwriting practices... and then the cycle starts again. Today, we're at the "easy credit" point in the cycle where low-quality loans are just beginning to go bad. The poster child of today's easy credit is Buy Now, Pay Later ("BNPL") loans... These are short-term, zero-interest, or below-market-interest installment loans using limited credit checks. They are offered by firms like Affirm (AFRM), Afterpay, and Klarna. BNPL loans are this cycle's equivalent to the worst lending practice at the top of the last credit bubble back in 2007... Those were "NINJA" loans (no income, no job, no assets). I've been seeing a BNPL payment option on more and more websites. And folks are using it to buy merchandise in stores, too. According to consumer financial services firm Bankrate, more than 60% of people under the age of 45 have used BNPL. Thanks to low interest rates and approval that takes just a few seconds, BNPL tends to lure folks into spending more than they do when using credit cards. A study from the Barclays bank and the nonprofit StepChange credit counselor revealed that one in three BNPL borrowers say the lending has gotten them into unmanageable debt. Of course, the people most likely to use BNPL financing are the ones who can't get credit elsewhere. Credit-reporting agency TransUnion reports that nearly 70% of BNPL users are subprime borrowers. You wouldn't know that reading Affirm's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC")... You see, Affirm doesn't rely on the credit bureaus to assess creditworthiness. It came up with its own credit score ranging range from zero to 100, with 100 being the highest credit quality. Affirm is very generous in its ratings. In its latest SEC filings, 90% of its $2.5 billion loan portfolio has credit scores of 90 or higher. Everyone gets an "A"! This is exactly the type of loose underwriting you see at the top of credit cycles. Affirm is putting lipstick on a pig... Its entire business model – extending credit to the least creditworthy borrowers and charging little to no interest – is flawed. This isn't going to end well for Affirm or its investors. The company even tells investors right there in its SEC filings: "We are not incentivized to profit from our consumers' hardships." Said another way, when its customers run into financial trouble, Affirm is going to take it on the chin. There are lots of signs that financial trouble has already started for American consumers... Some folks are now using BNPL loans to pay for groceries. Car repossessions are rising. And more than 20 million Americans are behind in paying their electric bills. And now, according to the Fed's latest loan-officer surveys, credit is once again tightening for the first time since the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. Banks are becoming more cautious with all types of loans, including loans to both large and small companies, as well as on credit-card loans to consumers. As credit continues to tighten, I predict we'll read more and more stories in the coming months about rising delinquencies (late payments), defaults (loans going bad), and bankruptcies (companies going bad). The Fed stepped in after the pandemic with unprecedented stimulus the last time credit tightened. But it's powerless to stop the credit crisis this time. The main reason the Fed can't save the economy this time is persistent inflation... I've been banging the drum since [April 2021]( warning about inflation. Back then, inflation was less than 3% and no one was taking it that seriously. That's right around the time Fed Chairman Jerome Powell began calling it "transitory." I called it the biggest threat to the markets. Then in [December 2021]( as the stock market was hitting all-time highs, I explained why inflation would cause the markets to crash in 2022. And [this past March]( before anyone was even talking about a recession, I predicted we wouldn't be able to avoid one this year – again because of inflation. Of course, as you know, inflation has since soared. And the markets have crashed... The S&P went on to fall 22% and the Nasdaq 32% from the time I wrote that December Digest to their lows in June. And the economy entered a recession (by the definition economists have used my entire lifetime) even faster than I expected. I'm writing this Digest today to warn you that the worst is not behind us. Things are going to get much worse before they get better. An economic winter is coming. I believe the stock market... and the even bigger corporate bond market... are headed much lower. There are two main reasons I believe this... First, inflation is tougher to get rid of than most folks understand... A bout of inflation is not like catching a cold where you can be back up on your feet feeling great again after a week. It's more like contracting severe pneumonia. You're going to be sick for a while. And if you don't take it seriously and do what it takes to fight it off, it's going to stick around even longer. The biggest mistake many investors are making today is not understanding how sticky inflation is. To them, if inflation drops a tiny bit from one month to the next, we'll be cured of it soon – allowing the Fed to begin loosening its policies later this year. That's a foolish bet. Even Jerome Powell, "Mr. Transitory," seems to have finally learned the lesson. His summer reading list must have been filled with economics textbooks. In his latest speech at central bankers' annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last month, Powell was very clear and direct. As he said... Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. I'm impressed at how far Powell has come since early 2021. In his speech, Powell even mentioned the mistakes the central bank made in the 1970s in loosening policy too fast, which led to high inflation lingering through the decade. Powell is right. In a [June Digest]( I wrote that the Fed needs to learn the lessons from the mistakes it made in the 1970s. Powell is finally saying all the right things. And yet many investors are ignoring his warnings. Ironically, when Powell was wrong about inflation being transitory, investors believed him. Now that he's finally right about inflation, investors are ignoring him. It's going to be another painful lesson for those investors. Don't fall into that trap of thinking inflation is under control just because the headline number falls from one month to the next. In the 84 months from 1973 to 1979, when inflation averaged more than 8%, the inflation rate decreased from one month to the next 36 times. And remember, there's a lot of "noise" in today's inflation numbers from supply shocks and the effect on energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine. Almost all the decline in the inflation numbers over the past two months stemmed from energy prices easing a bit. The CPI data for August showed that inflation still increased month over month from July (by 0.1%) even with sharp drops in gas prices. In fact, if you take out energy and food prices, "core" inflation rose 0.6% month over month versus Wall Street's 0.3% expectation. The reality is that interest rates have to go much higher than the Fed's 3.5% to 4% "target" rate in order to get inflation under control. That leaves the difficult choice... high inflation or high interest rates. That leads me to the second reason I see big trouble ahead for the economy and the markets... The average American is in deep financial trouble... This isn't a problem for just the poor. Let me start with some simple math... The median U.S. household income was around $70,000 in 2020, the latest year surveyed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS"). According to the BLS survey, households with incomes around $70,000 spent around $61,000 on living expenses that year... including housing, utilities, transportation, food, health care, taxes, and entertainment. That left $9,000 that they could use to build savings or pay down debt. Now consider that consumer prices rose 5% in 2021 and another 8% on average so far this year. (I'd argue the actual increases are a lot higher, but let's go with the government's official numbers.) Now consider that wages haven't kept up with rising expenses. Average wages were up only around 2.5% in 2021 and around 5% this year. That means a family with a salary of $70,000 in 2020 earns around $75,000 today, adjusting for the last two years' average raises. Meanwhile, that family's expenses have gone from $61,000 to around $70,000 using the government's CPI numbers. Their financial "cushion" has been nearly cut in half in a span of two years, all because of inflation. And remember, that's the median... The problem is much more dire for most folks. By definition, half of all households fall below the median. Food, rent, and energy costs are a much bigger proportion of these families' budgets. And those costs are up far more than the government's official 8% inflation number. Even before today's high inflation, households with incomes below $40,000 weren't making ends meet. That was around 35 million families, or 25% of all U.S. households. Now, after more than a year of high inflation, that threshold is much higher. I expect that households with incomes below $50,000 will have expenses higher than their incomes. That's around 50 million households, or nearly 40% of all families. In short... Americans are getting poorer by the month... The problem is only going to get worse until inflation subsides. It will be a problem for more and more families as rising prices outpace wage increases in the months and years ahead. Inflation is systematically wiping out the middle class. The stimulus money Americans received following the pandemic has been spent. The U.S. savings rate recently dropped to 5%, its lowest level since 2009. Nearly one out of every three American families lack enough savings to cover three months of expenses. According to a recent report, nearly 60% of all Americans are now living paycheck to paycheck. That's a staggering number. Even among households earning $200,000 or more, 30% report living paycheck to paycheck. Americans are turning to credit cards just to make ends meet. Credit-card debt increased by $100 billion in the second quarter to $887 billion. It was the largest increase in 20 years. Total household debt – including mortgages, credit cards, and car and student loans – now stands at a record $16 trillion. That's $2 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. With interest rates on the rise, much of this debt is getting more expensive by the day. According to Bankrate, the average interest rate on U.S. credit cards rose to 17.96%, the highest in more than 25 years. Consumers make up around 70% of our economy. If consumers aren't doing well, our economy isn't going to do well, either. There are plenty of dark clouds overseas, too... China's real estate bubble is on the verge of popping. Unless the government steps in, it could soon plunge that country into a full-blown debt crisis. And Europe is about to enter its own recession. Inflation in Europe spiked to a record high of 9.1% in August. And it's showing no signs of slowing. The European Central Bank ("ECB") is behind ours... It just started raising interest rates. The ECB last week hiked interest rates to 0.75%. It might not seem like much, but European banks have enjoyed negative interest rates since 2012. Those days are over. The ECB is going to have to raise rates much higher to fight off 9% inflation. What do you think higher rates are going to do to the European economies? And now, with winter right around the corner, Russia is cutting off gas supplies to Europe. That means already-high energy prices are likely to soar even higher this winter. Problems in Europe translate into problems for the U.S. Based on my review of some of the top U.S. companies' earnings reports, I estimate that Europe accounts for around 10% to 15% of large companies' global sales, on average. I just don't see how the U.S. can emerge from a recession while inflation is still crushing most Americans and Europe is about to plunge into a recession of its own. And this isn't even considering the geopolitical risk of the war in Ukraine intensifying or tensions between the U.S. and China escalating. Maybe you think I'm being too pessimistic. It's possible. I'll admit, I don't have a crystal ball. But as an investor, it helps to think in terms of probabilities. And as I look out over the horizon, I see far more things that can go wrong than can go right. Here's the big point, all of this leads me to one conclusion... Stocks and bonds are going to get much cheaper... If I've convinced you that we're in a recession and not coming out of it anytime soon, then this next chart should scare you. It shows earnings of the companies in the S&P 500. The black part of the line is actual earnings from 1980 to 2021. The blue part of the line (indicated with arrows) is Wall Street's estimates of earnings for 2022 through 2024. Recessionary periods are shown in gray. The most important thing to notice is that in every recession over the past 40 years, corporate earnings always fell. And yet... as the blue line shows, Wall Street is still forecasting earnings to grow 17% this year, 8% in 2023, and another 9% on top of that in 2024. Either Wall Street is in recession denial or it's banking on this time being different. I'm not. This chart tells me the market has a big wake-up call ahead of it. I believe we're going to see many "guide downs" in the third quarter as companies adjust their expectations for both sales and earnings. And we'll see even more in the fourth quarter as they come to grips with the economic realities as they unfold. The stock market clearly hasn't priced this in. That means it has much further to fall. There's another potential warning sign that I might be right... And I'm not talking about the widely discussed "2-10" yield curve inverting (meaning when interest rates on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond sink lower than two-year Treasurys) to the deepest level since 2000. I'm talking about our own proprietary Complacency Indicator that we use in our flagship publication, Stansberry's Investment Advisory. This indicator has been in freefall and is close to triggering another warning. Whenever this indicator falls below a "bearish" score of 30, it signals a market drop of 10% or more is coming in the next 12 months. Today, the indicator is still above 30. So it hasn't triggered an official warning... yet. But it has been falling – and falling fast. Three months ago, the indicator was at 74. Last month, it had fallen to 58. And this month, it fell 20 points to 38. The speed at which it's falling is most concerning. A 20-point drop in one month is extremely rare... In 25 years of back testing, the only other time this score fell so much so fast was in March 2000, when the score dropped from 47 to 27. The S&P 500 then went on to plummet nearly 50% over the next two and a half years. It's wise to pay attention to this indicator... It has predicted nine out of the last 11 market corrections or bear markets over the past 25 years. And it rarely flashes false signals. I hope you've prepared for the coming economic winter... If you're not prepared for what's coming next, it's not too late. You see, a credit crisis would be a good thing for my subscribers. The distressed corporate bond strategy my colleague Bill McGilton and I employ in our Stansberry's Credit Opportunities newsletter performs best in times of crisis. That's when perfectly safe corporate bonds sell off to absurd, distressed levels. Savvy investors scoop them up for pennies on the dollar and make a killing. These bonds pay a legally obligated return on a set schedule, meaning you know what your return will be when you buy them. That's why we call these bonds safer than stocks, whose returns are always uncertain outside of a dividend payment. Now, we don't need bad economic times for our strategy to work. Since launching the newsletter in late 2015, we've done very well without a true credit crisis. We've earned an average annualized return of 18% on 54 closed positions. That's not far off the 21% return of the overall stock market, and we've done it with investments that are much safer than stocks. Of course, we expect to do even better when the next credit crisis hits. Some of the world's best investors use this strategy to make a fortune... In a credit crisis, good companies' bonds often get beaten down by association with the bad ones. These falling prices drive yields (and potential returns) higher, making these investments incredibly attractive at a time when a lot of folks are panicking. In the next crisis, even bonds of companies with little or no chance of going bankrupt will trade for pennies on the dollar. That's when you can earn massive, stock-like returns in this often-overlooked sector of the market... If you're interested in profiting as the next credit crisis unfolds – with much safer investments than stocks – I'd love for you to join me in Stansberry's Credit Opportunities. [Click here for additional details about the strategy and how to get started with a subscription](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: # [How to Instantly Make $3,230 – No Matter What Happens in the Market This Week]( This simple, 94% accurate, and recession-proof income strategy has nailed 132 WINNERS in a row and could soon deposit thousands MORE into your account – EVERY single month – starting today. [Click here to learn more](. --------------------------------------------------------------- # ['A Gold Storm Is Coming']( Some of the richest men in the world are jumping in right now, because evidence suggests we could be seeing MUCH HIGHER gold prices before the end of this year... and if you're not taking advantage of this little-known way to invest (for less than $10), you're missing out. [Click here for full details](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 9/12/22): the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU). In today's mailbag, feedback [on yesterday's Digest]( about rising energy prices and the "seasonality" that matters most today... Do you have a comment, question, or observation? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Let's get down to brass tacks... "First, I used to schedule energy to the Pacific Interchange Utilities in the Pacific Northwest and at that time there were 17 of them. I sat across from the person dealing with the market in California. At that time, that state was 3,000 to 5,000 megawatts short to meet there then current load. That was in the mid to late 80s. "California has gotten on the green bandwagon, and we are already seeing the results, historically impossibly high energy prices in a region, which is now more likely close to 8,000 to 10,000 megawatts shortage. It's fact 'Mother nature always wins, or finds the way to win'... Fires, drought... she especially hates a vacuum. "California is a large sucking hole going down the tubes faster than a lead weight dropped from 100 feet... If I owned a business in California it would either close, or move, I would never stay there, and thousands of people are figuring that out. They are outlawing gas/diesel vehicles for electric ones or hydrogen-powered ones. There are three ways to extract hydrogen: electrolysis (putting sulfuric acid in water and running a current through it, breaks it down in to oxygen and hydrogen) that by the way costs more than oil/natural gas drilling and distribution, and the other ways are related to the processing of natural gas, again a hated fossil fuel. "Second, that is only going to put a burden on other places, especially Democratic run places... The green bandwagon is a unreachable pipe dream, which will doom those places and ultimately the whole world to massive riots, and civil insurrections across the planet. "Keep this in mind, rich people do not riot, pillage, or complain. They are rioted, pillaged, and complained against. The rich make up maybe 15% of the whole world... Statistics show that less than 3% of a population cause revolutions. If 50% of Europe is freezing, and the economy is in the toilet, you are going to see widespread riots, revolutions, and serious disruptions across the globe. "You forgot one important thing in your 'resource stack' report... hydro. Many places have hydro generation installed. It's a renewable resource when it snows or rains regularly. FWIW, the second largest installed generation dam in this world is in the USA, it is Grand Coulee Dam in the state of Washington. It has approximately 7,000 MW of generation installed." – Paid-up subscriber Monty B. "I've seen the distribution of energy sources twice now in your Digests. You don't list hydroelectric... Where does that fit into the mix? Is water considered a 'renewable resource?'" – Paid-up subscriber Stephen G. Corey McLaughlin comment: Thanks for the notes. To clarify about hydropower... It falls under renewables, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and accounted for about 6% of "utility scale" electricity generation in the U.S. at the end of last year. Wind powers about 9% of U.S. electricity and solar around 3%. The latter number would be a little higher (but not by much) if you include the solar generated by small-scale "off grid" systems – like portable solar installations or small rooftop units – that aren't connected to power plants. Regards, Mike DiBiase Atlanta, Georgia September 13, 2022 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 956.6% Retirement Millionaire Doc ADP Automatic Data 10/09/08 860.5% Extreme Value Ferris MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 822.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ETH/USD Ethereum 02/21/20 601.5% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade HSY Hershey 12/07/07 541.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 423.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 411.5% Retirement Millionaire Doc WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 380.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter NTLA Intellia Therapeutics 12/19/19 312.8% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel FSMEX Fidelity Sel Med 09/03/08 311.8% Retirement Millionaire Doc Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 2 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel/Wade --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst ETH/USD Ethereum 12/07/18 1,369.0% Crypto Capital Wade ONE-USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,198.5% Crypto Capital Wade POLY/USD Polymath 05/19/20 1,085.4% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 872.5% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 496.0% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberrycustomerservice.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized investment advice. © 2022 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or [www.stansberryresearch.com](. Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.

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05/12/2024

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04/12/2024

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04/12/2024

Email Content Statistics

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Subject Line Length

Data shows that subject lines with 6 to 10 words generated 21 percent higher open rate.

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Average in this category

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Number of Words

The more words in the content, the more time the user will need to spend reading. Get straight to the point with catchy short phrases and interesting photos and graphics.

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Average in this category

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Number of Images

More images or large images might cause the email to load slower. Aim for a balance of words and images.

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Average in this category

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Time to Read

Longer reading time requires more attention and patience from users. Aim for short phrases and catchy keywords.

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Average in this category

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Predicted open rate

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Spam Score

Spam score is determined by a large number of checks performed on the content of the email. For the best delivery results, it is advised to lower your spam score as much as possible.

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Flesch reading score

Flesch reading score measures how complex a text is. The lower the score, the more difficult the text is to read. The Flesch readability score uses the average length of your sentences (measured by the number of words) and the average number of syllables per word in an equation to calculate the reading ease. Text with a very high Flesch reading ease score (about 100) is straightforward and easy to read, with short sentences and no words of more than two syllables. Usually, a reading ease score of 60-70 is considered acceptable/normal for web copy.

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Technologies

What powers this email? Every email we receive is parsed to determine the sending ESP and any additional email technologies used.

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Email Size (not include images)

Font Used

No. Font Name
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