The 'Seasonality' That Matters Most Today

Protest, unrest, and winter... Natural gas is headed back to a decade-plus high... The 'seasonality' that matters most today... Not all seasons are created equal... Mother Nature is undefeated... What this means for inflation – and the Fed... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] Protest, unrest, and winter... Natural gas is headed back to a decade-plus high... The 'seasonality' that matters most today... Not all seasons are created equal... Mother Nature is undefeated... What this means for inflation – and the Fed... --------------------------------------------------------------- You might want to burn your energy bill soon... Many people are unaware of or misunderstand our energy reality... For example, roughly 40% of the electricity in the U.S. is generated by natural gas – a fossil fuel extracted from the ground that also heats about half the homes in the country. The other 20% of our electric supply comes from coal, another 20% from renewable sources like wind and solar, and most of the rest from nuclear power. I (Corey McLaughlin) start with this fact dump today because it is relevant to the research I'm about to highlight from our colleague Brett Eversole. You heard from Brett directly in the Digest last week ([here]( and [here]( about the potentially lucrative opportunities in the energy industry. Brett talked mostly about the oil-price boom he's expecting in the years ahead... The world is pushing toward a "green energy" future as it simultaneously faces a supply crunch of current energy sources. Oil is one. Natural gas is another... This is the stuff – which can be converted into electricity at power plants – that would be flowing through major pipelines in Eastern Europe, had Russia not recently cut off supply to Germany and beyond. In concert, European natural gas prices have surged more than 200% since June. In Germany, costs are up nearly fivefold. And folks' gas and electric bills have skyrocketed in kind... Europeans are posting pictures online about them. Some are even burning them (in Italy), and protests are breaking out. Here's one that took place earlier this month in the Czech Republic, where about 70,000 people shouted for a government solution to high prices... In the U.S., the energy price increases haven't been as severe – yet... Gasoline prices spiked to an all-time high but have come back down in the past few months. And the price of natural gas has "only" doubled this year, and it has actually gone down about 20% in the past few weeks. But as Brett shared in today's edition [of the free DailyWealth newsletter](... I've got some bad news... Natural gas prices are nearly certain to head higher from here. And they'll likely hit decade-plus highs just when we need this commodity most. You see, the prices of certain commodities move like clockwork, Brett explained, because of consistent forces that drive supply and demand throughout the year. As a result, they create remarkably consistent "seasonal" trends. Natural gas is a perfect example... Natural gas isn't used only to create electricity, but also heat. And a little lady called Mother Nature is about to do her thing. It's going to get cooler in the Northern Hemisphere over the next few months, and winter will be here before you know it. It could lead to a tragic crisis and social unrest in Europe and beyond. But at the very least, we're getting to the point of the energy cycle where natural gas prices would rise again even in a normal year. As Brett showed today... Prices tend to increase as we head into winter. Specifically, natural gas prices tend to rise the most in September and October. Take a look... This data looks at the last 30 years of natural gas prices. And you can see the clear seasonal trends... Prices tend to fall at the beginning of the year. They rise a little in the spring, before falling in the summer when demand is low. But then, just as we ramp into "busy season," prices see their largest spike of the year. This is because prices aren't the highest when most of the gas is consumed or turned into electricity in the middle of winter. They're highest when expected demand is strongest ahead of the winter season... The typical gain for U.S. natural gas prices in September and October is nearly 20% combined. But the spike could be even higher this time around, according to Brett, because current natural gas stockpiles in the continental U.S. are 8% lower than last year and 24% lower than the same time in 2020. The last time stockpiles were this low was 2018. Back then, natural gas prices rose 63% in September and November. Today, U.S. natural gas prices are slightly off their highs from last month but well above levels of the past decade... Natural gas prices are already up 121% year to date, the highest of any major commodity outside of coal (which is up 145%)... And U.S. natural gas futures traded nearly 5% higher today, just above their short-term 50-day moving average and well above their longer-term average. What happens 'there' matters 'here'... Part of the reason for this year's smaller natural gas stockpile is that the U.S. has been exporting significantly more natural gas to Europe than usual to replace its previous Russian supplies. As I shared [in the August 25 Digest](... During the first four months of 2022, the U.S. exported 74% of its liquefied natural gas to Europe, compared with 34% the year before. And as of June, the U.S. had sent more gas to Europe than it did in all of 2021. Higher prices have encouraged shipping energy to Europe, which in turn might lead to more higher prices. That's inflation... and it's part of the reason the world's central banks are trying to slow the economy down and dampen demand for all kinds of goods and services. Of course, though, maybe the last thing someone wants to give up using in the winter is heat. The same goes for electricity, year-round. As Brett concluded... According to history, natural gas prices are about to begin a seasonal boom. And it's possible that they could rise 20%, 30%, or even 40% in the coming weeks... hitting a decade-plus high along the way. This isn't good news for consumers, especially the folks who are [already behind on their energy bills](. But it could help wrap up an already fantastic year for energy companies, which may continue to earn big profits over the next six months – helped by higher prices. As Brett has been sharing recently, if you're looking for a part of the market where profits could absolutely soar in the years ahead, look no further than the energy sector. As he says, the unfolding energy crisis is much bigger than even seasonal trends. You can hear all the details directly from him [here](. Now, to be fair, I am typically skeptical of 'seasonality'... This might get me in some trouble. Some Wall Street veterans, maybe even some of our colleagues, might stop reading right here and tell me I'm missing something. I might be... That's OK. "Seasonality" – the belief that what the stock market has done in past seasons, months, or weeks says something significant about what will happen in the present – has always been a hard sell for me. Here's just one recent example... I'm an active reader of "FinTwit" (finance-focused Twitter users), and every day I see lots of posts from folks I follow or that Twitter's algorithms serve up to me. Heading into April of this year, probably two-thirds of these "experts" were suddenly sharing statistics about how April was the best month, historically, for stocks. They were implying the same would happen this year. I'll quote Ryan Detrick, then the chief market strategist at LPL Financial. He wrote at the end of March after the benchmark S&P 500 Index fell 13% over the first two months of 2022, then rallied to finish the first quarter roughly 5% below all-time highs... The big question is can the near-term strength continue? The good news is stocks really appear to love April. Not only is it the best month on average since 1950, but it has also been higher an incredible 15 of the past 16 years as well. Not this time, though. Make it 15 out of 17, which is not helpful for anyone invested this year. The S&P 500 finished this April down 9%. And heading into this month, a lot of these same people were now talking about how September is one of the worst months for stocks. So far, stocks are up (though remember, many indicators still show we're in a bear market). Herein lies an important distinction when talking about seasonality. Not all seasons, months, or weeks are created equal, even if they arrive in the same order every year... You have to consider the context of what's going on and if factors outweigh the dates on the calendar. To this point, Mother Nature is undefeated... So, certain seasonal patterns are compelling to follow – like the prices of essential commodities such as natural gas. The prices actually reflect real supply-and-demand cycles that are tied to big trends that the Federal Reserve can't manipulate – like the weather. As I was putzing around in my gas-powered car over the weekend... On the way to pick up some food (another essential), I was listening to a financial discussion on the radio. The host and his guest were talking about how the "tipping point" for electric vehicles had maybe arrived... maybe. Then, after the segment, a news update broke in with some notes about what was going on, as of yesterday, with the war in Ukraine and energy supplies. And given the idea from Brett today, a thought struck me that I think is worth sharing here... In "normal" winters, the price of natural gas goes up. Now, Russia has cut off a big chunk of supply to Europe and – since we've been shipping more to Europe than ever before – Americans are ending up with less supply, too. If anyone is betting on "official" inflation numbers to get close enough to 2% – central banks' stated goal – over the next six months, that's a risky play. Energy costs make up about a third of the consumer price index ("CPI"), the headline inflation number. Incidentally, we will learn the latest CPI reading for August tomorrow morning. We wouldn't be surprised if the CPI shows inflation lower than it was in July. We've all seen the big numbers at the gas station drop in the past three months. But inflation is not going back to "normal" anytime soon, including this winter. Prices to heat hundreds of millions of people's homes are about to go up... right when many people can least afford it. It's Time to Get Rich Robert Kiyosaki – who has written a new book, Capitalist Manifesto – says the big crash he has been predicting is here. But as he tells our editor-at-large Daniela Cambone, now is also the time to get rich. He shares what assets he's interested in today and what to avoid... [Click here]( to watch this episode right now. And to catch all of the videos and podcasts from the Stansberry Research team, be sure to [visit our Stansberry Investor platform]( anytime. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [SEE TODAY: Dr. Steve Sjuggerud's Major Announcement]( "This is what I'm doing with my own money right now – I recommend you do the same," says Steve, founding partner of Stansberry Research. In a brand-new update, he explains his No. 1 recommended sector that could reliably make you hundreds-of-percent gains in the coming months, no matter what the market does next – plus, why today is such a watershed moment... the setup of a lifetime. [See Steve's urgent new message right here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Income Secret Revealed: How to INSTANTLY Collect $1000s Every Month]( For the past 12 years, this 94% accurate, crisis-proof strategy has been handing some Americans "instant" cash payouts as much as $4,000 per month... without EVER having to buy a single stock up front. And it's not too late for you to jump in. [Click here for full details](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 9/9/22): None. In today's mailbag, more thoughts on student-loan forgiveness... a thank-you note... and an extension of a metaphor that Dan Ferris shared [in his latest Friday essay](... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Just went to my 50-year college reunion last night. Not one person is excited about the Biden student loan forgiveness s***! Because most if not all have already busted their asses to pay their [loans] off. They want to know why they have to pay for Biff's keg parties at the frat house when he is making three times the money they are..." – Paid-up subscriber Lee D. "I became a subscriber four months ago. Before that I was watching my portfolio decline every month with no control. By chance I listened to a Stansberry talk and the light went off. Options provide more safety in a bear market than investing in stocks. I took over my portfolio and have clawed my way back from over 20% loss to about 5%. "I am a full-time surgeon who knew absolutely nothing about options but Doc and Greg Diamond gave me the confidence to trade. Thank you." – Paid-up subscriber Barbara M. "Dan love your writing, analogies, and metaphors! Road kill is quite prevalent in central Wisconsin where the corn fields of the south mix with the lakes and forests of the north, so I found your analogy very interesting. Here, we have different scavengers since vultures find it too cold. We have bald eagles and crows. The deer dead on the road are the fraudulent companies. I liken the eagle to government trying to clean up the mess and the crows to the people involved in the fraud or just 'VC'. "Crows work together to distract the eagle who guards the kill, so they can sneak in there and get a chunk of meat (money). The auto drivers are investors and Stansberry is driver education teaching us how to avoid hitting a deer. The trailing stop loss, after the capital loss (car damage) of hitting the deer, is rural Wisconsinites taking all the fresh meat home with us to minimize our loss and getting out before the eagles and crows get involved! "I thank all of you at Stansberry for the education you provide!!!" – Paid-up subscriber Larry N. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland September 12, 2022 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 948.5% Retirement Millionaire Doc ADP Automatic Data 10/09/08 861.6% Extreme Value Ferris MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 815.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ETH/USD Ethereum 02/21/20 603.4% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade HSY Hershey 12/07/07 538.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 419.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 406.7% Retirement Millionaire Doc WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 377.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter NTLA Intellia Therapeutics 12/19/19 310.4% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel FSMEX Fidelity Sel Med 09/03/08 307.4% Retirement Millionaire Doc Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 2 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel/Wade --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst ETH/USD Ethereum 12/07/18 1,372.4% Crypto Capital Wade ONE-USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,184.7% Crypto Capital Wade POLY/USD Polymath 05/19/20 1,089.1% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 862.1% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 470.1% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberrycustomerservice.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized investment advice. © 2022 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or [www.stansberryresearch.com](. Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.