[Bill Bonner's Diary](
Want to Eat? Then Get to Work!
εἴ τις οὐ θ έλει ἐργάζεσθαι μηδὲ ἐσθι έτω
eí tis ou thélei ergázesthai mēdè esthiétō(He who does not work, neither shall he eat.)
– Attributed to St. Paul
By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners
[Bill Bonner]
BARCELONA – Errata: This will come as a shock to many Dear Readers, but occasionally, we make errors here at the Diary.
Most of them don’t make much difference… but let’s correct one of them.
Obviously, our date for the end of the Peloponnesian War that we mentioned yesterday was just a dumb mistake. It was 404 BC, not 404 AD.
But let’s put our past errors behind us… and move on to new ones!
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Money Without Strings
Yesterday came news that Finland has given up.
The idea – which was “experimental” – was to give people money without conditions attached. If you were jobless, for whatever reason, the program entitled you to $685 a month.
Not much. But it came with no strings attached. Free money, in other words.
No need to look for a job. No need to be retrained. No need to do anything.
“He who does not work, neither shall he eat,” wrote Paul to the Thessalonians.
It was an old idea, another of the precious insights, condensed and hardened – like diamonds – by time and experience. It takes work to produce food. A society that doesn’t work will soon go hungry.
But since it now takes fewer and fewer people to produce the food we eat, many people have come to the conclusion that this gem of wisdom has been rendered obsolete by technology. Maybe we don’t all have to work, after all.
So it was that Finland provided a “basic income” to those in need. Similar experiments are underway in San Francisco, Toronto, Kenya, and the Netherlands.
And now, after only a few months, Finland has given its judgment; it has dropped the program.
The New York Times, however, was quick to explain that this was not a verdict against a “basic income:”
In much of the world, the concept of basic income retains appeal as a potential way to more justly spread the bounty of global capitalism while cushioning workers against the threat of robots and artificial intelligence taking their jobs…
The Finns’ decision, said The New York Times, was merely a recognition that the country already has plenty of programs for poor people.
Healthcare is free. University education is free. Unemployed people get benefits (though they have to look for a job in order to receive them). Another program seemed redundant.
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Attractive Lunatic
We began the week by describing how tradition – often expressed in aphorisms, adages, and proverbs – distills the lessons of centuries. The idea took shape as we visited the Sagrada Família cathedral here in Barcelona.
The building rejects traditional architecture in favor of bold new shapes and imaginative designs.
The Sagrada Família is breathtaking… and exhilarating, like meeting an attractive lunatic. But our guess is that it is an evolutionary dead end.
Language, art, architecture, manners, economics, and morals – all evolved with human beings themselves. Those innovations that helped us survive and prosper endured. Those that did not were discarded.
Why do men and women still marry each other? No law requires it. Nobody invented it. There is no proof that it is better than any other domestic arrangement. And many people who have tried it complain about it.
But most people give it a shot anyway, often more than once.
Of course, many people think they can dispense with the formality of it.
“We’re not married,” said a young friend recently. “We just live together. It’s got to work for us both. And when it doesn’t work, well, we don’t want to be stuck with one another.”
“Well,” we replied, speaking from much experience, “it doesn’t work every day!”
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Courting Disaster
People often chafe against the rules and restraints of tradition. Why should they be bound by old wives’ tales and silly old conventions, they wonder?
Aren’t they smart enough to figure things out for themselves, they ask?
In a word: No.
Turn your back on tradition and you court disaster. At least, that is the idea on the table. And yesterday, we looked at how rejecting the old wisdom – live by the sword, die by the sword – is a dangerous way to conduct foreign policy.
“Put your sword back in its place,” said Jesus.
Instead, the U.S. is swinging its big Claymore all over the Middle East and Africa. Our guess is that this will pay off – but only for people who make swords! Everyone else will lose.
People don’t get what they want. They don’t get what they expect. But the gods make sure that, sooner or later, they generally get what they deserve.
Regards,
[signature]
Bill
Economic Insight: How to Save the Prairie State
By Nick Giambruno, Editor, Crisis Investing
[Nick Giambruno]
The state of Illinois is in trouble, and it’s only getting worse…
Bill has [already reported]( on this topic. But for readers who don’t know, Illinois is currently facing a fiscal crisis of epic proportions.
For starters, the state’s budget deficit continues to widen. Have a look at the chart below.
[Chart]
In 2016, Illinois had a budget deficit of about $9.6 billion. But just one year later, in 2017, that figure jumped to $14.6 billion. That’s a 52% spike.
Here’s why that’s a problem…
Illinois is currently grappling with a pension crisis. Credit rating agency Moody’s estimates that the state has $251 billion in pension debt. Combine that with the fact that the state government has struggled to match tax income with outlays for years and you have the makings of a real crisis.
The situation is so dire, in fact, that Moody’s actually downgraded the state’s debt to a “Baa3” early last year. That simply means that Illinois is one step above “junk” status.
Now, there are a few things Illinois could do.
It could raise taxes. Illinois actually did this already. It raised the income tax rate from 3.75% to 4.95% in July of 2017. And the tax software company Turbo Tax estimates that Illinois is already one of the leaders in combined sales and income tax. At 11%, it’s the fourth-highest in the country.
But raising taxes even further has the potential to backfire. High-wealth individuals could flee the state and seek shelter in lower-tax states like Florida or Texas. That would reduce the tax revenue for the state of Illinois.
In fact, over 3,000 millionaires have fled Chicago in recent months.
This is the largest outflow of wealthy people from any U.S. city right now. It’s also one of the largest outflows of wealthy people in the world.
But it’s not just millionaires… Every five minutes, someone leaves Illinois.
The second option for Illinois could be to issue more debt. The state already seems to be taking that route. On Wednesday, Illinois put more than $500 million worth of bonds on sale. But with a near-junk rating, it remains to be seen if investors will buy in.
And more debt merely exacerbates the problem. It kicks the can down the road for another day.
But there is a third option.
Illinois could legalize recreational marijuana, tax it, and use the revenue to dig itself out of its financial hole. In fact, that appears to be precisely what it’s doing.
The Wall Street Journal reported on the developments last month:
Democrats running in state primaries across the country have been promoting legal marijuana as a painless way to raise money while avoiding tax increases.
In Illinois, the candidates vying to be the party’s gubernatorial nominee are so invested in the issue, they have been attacking one another for failing to embrace it with enough vigor.
Readers of my investment service Crisis Investing know that this is a trend I’ve been following for a long time. The unfunded pension liabilities in Illinois are disastrous for the state’s budget, but great news for recreational marijuana investors.
And there are other catalysts…
California legalized recreational marijuana on January 1 of this year. Canada will legalize marijuana nationwide later this summer.
And as [I reported]( to you last week, President Trump just gave the green light to the marijuana industry when he abandoned a Justice Department threat to crack down on legal pot.
This all adds up to one thing: a massive bull market in legal marijuana. And the good news is that you’re not too late. This industry is just getting started.
– Nick Giambruno
P.S. Last night, thousands of readers tuned in to the Pot Stock Millionaire Summit. I, along with Doug Casey, showed why many more marijuana millionaires will be minted in the years ahead.
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MAILBAG
In the mailbag, Bill’s [visit to the Sagrada Família]( has gotten readers thinking…
A “tip of the hat” for your Diary writings – particularly your Barcelona piece, which was of exceptional quality, craftsmanship, and humor. How you find the time to write like that, travel the world, and run a company is beyond me. But I want to be Bill Bonner!
– Peter D.
We may not all have the same responsibilities or duties, but we all have the same rights. It’s fundamental to our Constitution – and even our Christian and Jewish faiths – that God sees us all equally. The better view is that to whom God has bestowed more material graces, He also expects greater responsibilities towards others. We cannot buy Heaven. That’s why I’m often conflicted by the beauty and pageantry of my faith, but also troubled by it deeply, as is the current pontiff. The wealthy always get the biggest prizes in the church. I trudge on and leave judgement to God.
– Patrick V.
Also, as Bill mentioned above, a few amateur historians catch a small error in [yesterday’s Diary](
The Spartan Athens War did not end in 404 AD It ended centuries earlier. In 404 AD, Rome was entering its final death throes.
– Andrew H.
Many of your investment readers may be astute with financials, yet sadly ignorant when it comes to history – they will think Pericles ruled in the 400 AD era. It would serve many well to read and study that era or, more accurately, that epoch of time. I can only hope you did not proofread the article and miss that most important distinction. If so, you may be doing too much!
– James P.
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