Cutting Through the Nonsense

The myth of the 'strong' economy... Oh, yeah, unproductive government spending... Remembering a prescient prediction... A Kamala Harris presidency... What it could mean... What's on Porter's mind now... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] The myth of the 'strong' economy... Oh, yeah, unproductive government spending... Remembering a prescient prediction... A Kamala Harris presidency... What it could mean... [What's on Porter's mind now](... --------------------------------------------------------------- Something doesn't add up... This morning, Uncle Sam reported "better than expected" GDP of 2.8% annualized growth in the second quarter... OK. But the unemployment rate has risen each of the past three months, too. Also this morning, we saw disappointing earnings from companies you can use to gauge broader economic activity – such as major airlines like Southwest and American. (Southwest also announced "urgent" steps to boost revenue and is ditching its well-known "open seating" policy in favor of a strategy that allows for the sale of "premium" seats with more legroom.) Earlier this month, Delta and United had already said they expected an "oversupply" of flights ahead... and said they'd lowered fares to spur demand. This dynamic showed up as "deflation" in the latest government inflation report covering June. What gives? Airlines are just one industry, and the economy is made up of thousands of variables. But those reports certainly don't square with the idea of a "strong" economy... Ah, here's the rub about the GDP report... It's government spending. Here's Vance Ginn, the former chief economist of the White House's Office of Management and Budget... When you correctly subtract volatile inventory investment and redistributionary, unproductive government spending, the productive private sector growth was just 1.3%. It's good that GDP inflation moderated to 2.3%, but disposable personal income increased by just 1%, and the savings rate declined to a fresh low of 3.5%. Bottom line: The American economy continues to fluctuate greatly because of bad fiscal and monetary policies that contribute to poor outcomes for many Americans. That sounds accurate to me. National-defense spending grew at a 5.2% annualized rate in the second quarter, the second-largest quarter of growth in that area since the start of 2021. Switching gears to a prescient prediction... We're moving today's mailbag up, thanks to a note that subscriber Mike M. sent in last night... about a prediction that Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry made many years ago. Mike wrote... Somewhere Porter talks about, and actually predicts, Kamala Harris being president. I would like to re-read that but I don't remember where it is. Do you have some index or something – or someone's memory – that could tell me where that is? (Also might be valuable to refresh in print.) His comments, and then her now running for president is very... something. Thanks for the note, Mike, and I (Corey McLaughlin) am glad you brought this up. We've been looking to mention Porter's prediction about Kamala Harris – which he originally wrote about in his book, The Battle for America – and probably will discuss it more in a future issue. But, for now, here's the excerpt I think you're looking for... We published it [in the Digest back in 2018]( under the headline, "We're Screwed No Matter Who Wins the Next Presidential Election." (By the way, all our past Digest issues – and any past work from any of our publications – can be found in the archives on StansberryResearch.com. The Digest archive is [here]( You'll note that Porter said he expected Harris to be the Democratic nominee in 2020. That didn't work out, though she tried... But here we are four years later, and it's on the brink of happening. Porter wrote... You've probably never heard her name before... But few people knew who Barack Obama was two years before he was elected president in 2008. Sen. Harris is currently the junior U.S. senator from California, where she assumed office in 2017. Prior to that, she served as the state's attorney general, and before that as district attorney. Former President Obama is a huge fan of hers, and once described her in these words... She is brilliant and she is dedicated and she is tough. And she is exactly what you'd want in anybody who is administering the law, and making sure that everybody is getting a fair shake. She also happens to be, by far, the best-looking attorney general in the country. I believe it's just a matter of time before you see her name and face on every news network as she prepares for an eventual run. You see, just like Obama in 2008, Sen. Harris is taking all of the calculated steps a candidate with eyes on the White House would be taking at this early stage. - She's working on a new book that describes her underdog story and political agenda. - She's headlining sold-out political fundraising events, raising millions of dollars for the Democratic Party. - She's giving commencement speeches at left-leaning universities, and appearing on highly viewed talk shows. - She's assembling a campaign team of former Hillary Clinton aides. - She formally rejected corporate political action committee (PAC) money, and has even launched an online grassroots small-donor fundraising strategy. Just about the only thing she hasn't done yet is announce her candidacy. We'll make this our "quote of the week" for this week. Harris eventually did run, losing a bid for the nomination but linking up with Joe Biden to serve as his running mate for a White House run in 2020... The big point... In any case, Porter's big point was that if Harris (or any fellow progressive) won the Democratic nomination, they would likely appeal to what was soon to become the generation with the most votes in America... The one thing I am sure of is that whichever progressive candidate ultimately runs for office in 2020, he or she will be focused on a socialist platform. And that's because the only way you get hopeless, debt-burdened millennials to show up and vote for you is simple: by making the most radical promises American politics has ever seen. And those promises – like a "debt jubilee" for the masses, "Medicare for All," or universal basic income – would have drastic consequences for the economy, stock market, and millions of Americans' retirements. It might be time to consider this scenario all over again... It sure does align with the history lesson we've given ourselves this week... That's the record of the economy and markets going through tough times after the kind of presidential election we're about to see – one where a sitting president, eligible for a second term, decides not to run. It happened most recently in 1968, and before that in 1952 and 1928. In the months leading up to those elections, stocks were actually up... But the track record for what comes after – for whatever reasons, like costly promises to "fix" the future – isn't great. As we wrote Monday... Recessions – real "official" recessions – each occurred within a year of the '28, '52, and '68 elections. First came the market panic of 1929 and the start of the Great Depression under Herbert Hoover. A Truman speechwriter described the 1953 recession as "relatively brief and mild." The catalyst was tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve ahead of expected inflation related to the post-Korean War era. U.S. stocks were down about 12% in an associated market fall into the middle of 1953. The last of these recessions, which also coincided with high inflation and tighter monetary policy, lingered for nearly a year. This time, stocks took a more considerable hit of nearly 40% from their pre-recession peak in late 1968 to a bottom in June 1970. I can't tell you precisely what will happen in the markets or politics over the next year or few. In the short term, the prospect of some kind of "resolution" to the election – no matter what it is – could act as a tailwind for stocks, as it has in the past. Then history suggests things could get volatile... What's on Porter's mind now... Porter wrote to all Stansberry Research readers a couple of weeks ago [in a special Friday Digest](. This latest call also looks prescient, given that the popular mega-cap names and "incredibly overvalued" S&P 500 Index, as he put it, have sold off since the warning he delivered. As he wrote... Extremely high valuations, like the kind we see today in big-cap tech stocks, are like someone putting dynamite into a hole. The pressure builds and builds and builds. And the more extreme the valuations get, the bigger the inevitable explosion will be. Right now, the only thing holding up this market is sentiment – the fundamentals are completely broken. When the stocks start to fall, sentiment will disappear. Then there will be a big crash. Coincidentally, Porter is sitting down on camera in just a few days to share more about his latest outlook on the economy and markets... This includes explaining why the market crash he has predicted hasn't quite happened yet... and his thoughts now about how to navigate whatever comes next, in politics or anything else. From what we've heard about the event, you won't want to miss it. It's free, too. You can [click here for more details and to register to watch now]( so you don't miss anything. Given our subject today, I'm curious about what he might be predicting now. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: # [The EXACT Day This Bull Market Will End]( "My market crash prediction never came true. On July 30, I'll tell you why... and, more importantly, what happens next," says our founder, Porter Stansberry. Next Tuesday, he'll return to explain this year's market madness and share what he's doing with his own money. We recommend all subscribers attend. [Click here to join Porter](. --------------------------------------------------------------- # [Urgent Alert: 'This Could Be Worth 20 Times More Than Nvidia']( Whitney Tilson has nailed many of the most famous stocks of the past 25 years – including Netflix, Amazon, and Apple. Now he's pounding the table on a new technology rolling out across America, which early estimates say could create more wealth than AI, the personal computer, and the smartphone combined. [Click here to see how it could become the No. 1 investment of the next decade](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 7/24/24): Coca-Cola (KO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and Spotify Technology (SPOT). We covered the primary piece of mail that came in yesterday above. What's on your mind? As always, e-mail your comments and questions to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland July 25, 2024 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation. Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,389.6% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,365.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 900.9% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 720.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 667.4% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 474.9% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 440.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TT Trane Technologies 04/12/18 432.6% Retirement Millionaire Doc NVO Novo Nordisk 12/05/19 375.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Gula TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 353.8% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris 1 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,640.2% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,148.1% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 758.3% Crypto Capital Wade AGI/USD Delysium AI 01/16/24 312.3% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams PNC Warrants PNC-WS 6.16 years 706% True Wealth Systems Sjuggerud Maxar Technologies^ MAXR 1.90 years 691% Venture Tech. Lashmet Silvergate Capital SI 1.95 years 681% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Band Protocol BAND/USD 0.31 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra LUNA/USD 0.41 years 1,166% Crypto Capital Wade Polymesh POLYX/USD 3.84 years 1,157% Crypto Capital Wade Frontier FRONT/USD 0.09 years 979% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin BNB/USD 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. 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