Some Tonic for a World on Fire

Inching toward World War III... Has it already started?... Doc's options trading is an elixir... One central bank holds, another cuts (again)... A wildly overlooked 15-year trend... A reason to own stocks... Mailbag: We want Daffy Duck... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] Inching toward World War III... Has it already started?... Doc's options trading is an elixir... One central bank holds, another cuts (again)... A wildly overlooked 15-year trend... A reason to own stocks... Mailbag: We want Daffy Duck... --------------------------------------------------------------- Is the world on fire?... A look at the geopolitical headlines over just the past few days would tell you as much. Russian President Vladimir Putin is again cozying up with "Little Rocket Man" Kim Jong Un, the supreme leader of North Korea in what appears to be an arms deal and defense alliance... which has implications for what might happen next in the Ukraine war. In the Middle East, the Hezbollah organization in Lebanon is threatening an all-out war "with no red lines" against neighboring Israel... and warning it'll attack the island nation of Cyprus, an Israeli ally, in the eastern Mediterranean Sea... Then there are all the other overt battles and sometimes covert proxy fights, which have come to the fore since Russia's invasion of Ukraine introduced "[new world disorder]( as we put it back in March 2022. It includes financial sanctions, currency wars, product bans, and other consequences. We haven't even mentioned longtime U.S. adversaries China and Iran by name yet. Andrew Fox is a former British Army officer, paratrooper, and veteran of three tours in Afghanistan. Today, he researches defense trends, the Middle East, and disinformation, and he shares sharp analysis online in his own independent newsletter. He recently wrote... Take a step back, and it looks as if the Third World War has started already. It just doesn't look like the conflict we thought it would be. I (Corey McLaughlin) am not going to spend time here today handicapping what comes next in geopolitics... other than to say that our heads are not in the sand about it by any stretch. War is inherently inflationary, no matter what side of it you are on – and potentially panic-inducing to markets and brutal for those directly involved. Today, though, I have a few ideas as an elixir to fears about world politics... It won't lead to world peace, but it might help you rest a little easier when thinking about your portfolio. Doc's last call... If you've read the Digest at all over the past week or so and read about our friend and Stansberry Research senior partner Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig's latest recommendations, you should already know what I'm talking about. But I do want you to know that discounted access to Doc's options-trading strategy and his real-money demo with PGA Tour golfer Kevin Kisner to show you how it all works will go offline at midnight Eastern tonight. So, if you're interested at all, [click here to watch now](. You'll hear directly from Doc about his No. 1 favorite trading strategy. It thrives during periods of heightened uncertainty. It has given Doc a 94% win rate since he debuted it to subscribers in 2010. And it allows folks to collect instant income over and over and over again, with less risk than actually buying stocks, bonds, or cryptos outright. For instance, this strategy has delivered 20% annualized returns in each of the past three years. That includes the end of a wild bull market run in 2021, the bear market of 2022, and then a roller-coaster in 2023. Not only that, but Doc even went on a 200-plus-trade win streak in the same span. In the free video, you can follow along as he shows Kevin how to use this strategy to collect instant income, or "private jet money," as he calls it... and put your own money to work with a free trade recommendation. Plus, this is your last chance to get access to all of Doc's future trades using this strategy for 60% off the price we usually charge. [Click here to watch now](. Today's economic data... Here in the U.S., first-time claims for unemployment benefits dipped last week versus the week before... But that was still 238,000 people who were newly out of work. And the total number of Americans currently on benefits was the highest since January, another sign of the "official" labor-market data continuing to cool... Meanwhile, Uncle Sam also shared some bad news from the housing market. Groundbreakings for new homes and permit applications for future projects fell in May to their lowest level in roughly four years. Signals from abroad... The Bank of England ("BoE") made its latest policy announcements today and said it wasn't changing its main interest rate, which is at a 16-year high of around 5.25%. As global news service Reuters reported today... BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement alongside the decision that it was "good news" that the latest inflation data had shown inflation was back at its 2% target, but that it was too soon to cut rates. "We need to be sure that inflation will stay low and that's why we've decided to hold rates at 5.25% for now," he said. Bailey's statement differed from last month, when he said he was "optimistic" that data was moving in the right direction for a rate cut. The BoE's stance is more in line with the Federal Reserve right now. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank already cut rates in June, and other European state banks are "dovish," meaning inclined to ease policy. The Swiss are winning the rate-cut race so far. Today, the Swiss National Bank followed up a March interest-rate cut with another cut to 1.25%... even as reported growth and inflation have picked up in recent months. Quote of the week... No wonder the market has gained so much since the secular bull market began in 2009! I bookmarked this comment and an associated chart from Jurrien Timmer, the director of global macroeconomic analysis at Fidelity Investments, a few weeks ago. Timmer posted them as part of a thread on the social platform X discussing why stocks have been in a "secular" or long-term (12-to-18-year) bull market since the great financial crisis in 2009... It concerns a wildly overlooked supply/demand trend that has helped push equity prices higher in general: the "imbalance" between new shares hitting the market – through IPOs and secondary offerings – and the "reduction" in shares via buybacks and mergers. Basically, fewer and fewer total shares have been available to buy over the past 15 years. I bring this up not as a short-term market indicator, but as a reminder of the power of owning stocks of high-quality businesses over the long term and why stocks are inflation protection. Many of the market's highest-quality businesses consistently reward shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. Now, some companies buy back shares to help their share price in the short term but don't generate enough cash to reward you in the long term. Stay away from those... And some great companies put their cash to other uses rather than dividends or buybacks. Your investment decisions need more data points. But when a business is healthy enough to reward shareholders, we're glad to see that happen. Also, looking at the bigger picture, you'll want to keep an eye out for shifting momentum and protect against "cyclical" bear markets – like we saw in 2022. That's especially true if you have a shorter investing horizon. But to me, this new stock issuance versus share buyback/merger detail is a large bullish backdrop for owning stocks in the long term. One addendum, though... Timmer is working off the idea that a secular bull market began in 2009. There is a case to be made that it started later and thus has a longer run ahead still... Dedicated Digest readers will recall that last year our colleague Brett Eversole wrote here about the concepts of secular (and cyclical) bull and bear markets. As Brett explained in [our January 30, 2023 edition](... In reality – and what the man on the street also doesn't know – there are two kinds of bull markets and two kinds of bear markets... - Cyclical: This is what happens over 12 to 18 months. - Secular: This is what happens over 12 to 18 years. And Brett also contended the current secular bull market that we're in began in 2013... Everyone knows stocks bottomed in March 2009. Wasn't that the beginning of the bull market? Well, that's not how secular bull markets work... To find the long-term secular trend, we need to wait for stocks to stage a major breakout to a new all-time high. Only then can we know for sure that the overall trend has shifted. Stocks broke out to a new all-time high in 2013. That's when this secular bull market began. It's just shy of 10 years old, as I write. Brett also shared this chart in January 2023... In the chart, green boxes show secular bull markets over the past 100 years. Red boxes show secular bear markets with long-term downtrends or sideways markets. Take a look... Again, this was back in January of last year... Since then, the S&P 500 has shot higher to above 5,500 and new all-time highs. Brett's point was that we were both seeing a bear market and a bull market at the same time, depending on the timeline you were talking about. He was saying the bear market of 2022 was unfolding within a longer-term secular bull market. And he was spot on. Go back and read his full two-part series for all those details [here]( and [here](. This wasn't a popular thing to do at the time, but if you were interested in generous returns, it was exactly the right guidance to follow. So it goes with us here at Stansberry Research. We're not afraid to be contrarian. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [Must See by Midnight: Use KO241220P60 to Collect $360 Instantly]( But first, claim a 30-day trial of our most successful research service, Retirement Trader. Former Goldman Sachs trader Dr. David Eifrig shows you how to collect thousands of dollars a month... without touching any conventional investments up front and with a 94% success rate. [Click here by midnight tonight for the details](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [If You Own Any Stocks in 2024, Read This IMMEDIATELY]( Wall Street titan Marc Chaikin predicted 2023's bank crisis five months in advance. He also predicted last year's bull run when everybody was expecting a recession. Now he's sounding the alarm on what's coming NEXT for the stock market, based on a signal with 100% perfect accuracy across more than 80 years of historical data. [Click here for the details (including a free recommendation)](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 6/18/24): ABB (ABBNY), Applied Materials (AMAT), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Brown & Brown (BRO), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Costco Wholesale (COST), Cintas (CTAS), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), KraneShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index Fund (KEMX), Eli Lilly (LLY), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Micron Technology (MU), Neuberger Berman Next Generation Connectivity Fund (NBXG), Oracle (ORCL), Procter & Gamble (PG), ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD), Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology Fund (RSPT), VanEck Semiconductor Fund (SMH), ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO), Teradyne (TER), Trane Technologies (TT), The Trade Desk (TTD), ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (USD), Vanguard S&P 500 Fund (VOO), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities (VTIP), and the short position in Cracker Barrel (CBRL). In today's mailbag, feedback on [Tuesday's edition]( which included a contribution from Doc Eifrig and a report on the latest in Fed-speak... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Doc, your guidance is brilliant... Thanks for your brilliant insights over the years. I have been in options for a long time... I make a LOT of money reliably..." – Subscriber Gregg C. "I have an AI/tech update suggestion for the daily Digest: Whenever you quote any of the Federal Reserve heads, it would be enjoyable to be able to click on the quote and have it voiced by Daffy Duck. "Imagine hearing this recited by the Daffster: 'If all of it happens to be as forecasted, I think one rate cut would be appropriate by year's end. But I could also see two cuts, or none, for this year.' (Cue Looney Tunes theme)" – Subscriber Gary S. Corey McLaughlin comment: I am fully on board with this idea, Gary. I think you're onto something... as long as you're not able to use the Daffster feature on anything I write. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland June 20, 2024 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,422.5% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,422.3% Retirement Millionaire Doc ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 892.1% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 731.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 623.3% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 451.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TT Trane Technologies 04/12/18 451.8% Retirement Millionaire Doc AFG American Financial 10/12/12 443.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter NVO Novo Nordisk 12/05/19 408.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Gula TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 378.4% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris 1 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,627.0% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,165.4% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 774.5% Crypto Capital Wade AGI/USD Delysium AI 01/16/24 320.0% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams PNC Warrants PNC-WS 6.16 years 706% True Wealth Systems Sjuggerud Maxar Technologies^ MAXR 1.90 years 691% Venture Tech. Lashmet Silvergate Capital SI 1.95 years 681% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Band Protocol BAND/USD 0.31 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra LUNA/USD 0.41 years 1,166% Crypto Capital Wade Polymesh POLYX/USD 3.84 years 1,157% Crypto Capital Wade Frontier FRONT/USD 0.09 years 979% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin BNB/USD 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. 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