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TRENDS February 26, 2017
Dear investor,
Itâs not a secret that the cheap debt policy from the European Central Bank has really helped out several European countries to keep the government finances under control. Well, more or less, as several members of the Eurozone are still running huge budget deficits.
When the ECB was created, its main ( and sole) mission was to keep an eye on the monetary policy in the Eurozone. The focus was on the inflation rate, which should be approximately 2% as that was thought to be ideal, in the longer term.
In order to keep the economy going and to boost the inflation rate, the ECB has started an asset purchase program just a few years ago. This would allow the Central Bank to pump more liquidity into the system.
This plan was expected to have a âtrickle downâ effect, but in reality most of the cash has been sticking to the wrong fingers. Banks and asset managers are benefiting, but the common man on the street doesnât notice anything.
On the contrary, as the requirements for mortgages are becoming more strict, and you can just forget about easy access to credit cards or personal loans.
So letâs be clear, the low interest rate isnât serving any other purpose than to make the institutions rich. And we arenât talking about a few billion and not even about a few hundred billion euro, as you can see on the next chart. The counter is at in excess of 1.6 trillion⦠and counting!
[Debt1](
But perhaps, more importantly, it also avoids the annual government budgets to fall off a cliff. In fact, even Jens Weidmann, one of the fiercest opponents of the buyback program, now expects the ECB to continue the purchase program.
âVorsorge ist notwendigâ. Precautions are necessary.
Thatâs the verbatim quote of Weidmann in todayâs edition of the Frankfurter Allgemeiner.
Every single country in the Eurozone is benefiting from the ultra-low interest rates. The biggest winner seems to be Germany, which has saved 250 billion in the past 10 years compared to where the interest rates were in that year.
[Debt2](
As you can see on the previous image, the net government debt in the Eurozone continues to increase. It currently stands at 9.5 trillion euro.
This means that every 1% increase in the interest rates would cost all Eurozone countries 95B EUR per year on a combined basis. Thatâs an additional TRILLION in the next ten years.
Everything seems to be going just fine on the surface. But deep down, the problems are still there. The world is addicted to cheap debt and once the ECB-drip will be removed, countries will be facing hundreds of billions per year in additional interest payments.
When stakes are high on the monetary front, itâs always a good idea to have an insurance policy. Allocating a part of your assets to precious metals usually isnât a bad idea. Moreover, it's one of the best ideas in the financial landscape, today.
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Kind regards,
Secular Investor
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