Is a market "monkey wrench" coming?

And here's how to tell... [Logo]( Weekly Market Update Today is October 13, 2023 Dear Reader, Hello and Happy Friday. Apart from what it could do to oil and energy prices, there’s an aspect to the tragedy in the Middle-East that’s under-appreciated. Before I say what it is, let me say that, of course, any purely market-related impact pales alongside the staggering human toll this latest conflict has taken and will likely take in the days and weeks ahead. Bill Spencer True Market Insiders Our prayers are for a minimal loss of life and for minimal human suffering. If you attended yesterday’s live Sector Prophets Pro Mentoring session, then you already know how the conflict could disrupt a key sector of the market. Israel is one of the thriving centers of semiconductor production and manufacturing. The talented Ian King of Bloomberg [sums up the story](. “Israel is a small country with an outsized influence on the global chip industry. It’s a major source of engineering talent, a hub for international chipmakers and fertile ground for semiconductor startups the big companies often want to acquire.” The companies with a semiconductor footprint in Israel reads like a “Who’s Who” of the industry. Nvidia… Intel… Apple… Microsoft… Amazon… All have a large and growing presence in the country. The stakes are high. “Israel is one of the few places outside of East Asia where advanced chip production is done. The war between Israel and Hamas, which has left hundreds of people dead in its first week, threatens to further complicate the chip supply chain.” King reports that a man named Avinatan Or, one of the hostages taken by Hamas, is an engineer for Nvidia. Many of the skilled employees working in Israel work in the chip industry. Intel alone has 12,800 people working for it. Many of those workers at Intel, and at other companies, are reservists who have been called up to serve in any pending operations. Again, the human cost is paramount in our minds. But the potential market implications are real, and could have costs of their own. When the market closed on Friday, the bears – the forces of Supply – controlled the entire market. Our US Industry Bell Curve, which shows us a picture of market “breadth” or participation, looked like this. But this Monday, the market looked like this. A single sector had fled from the bears’ camp to the bulls’ camp. That sector was: Semiconductors.     I don’t mention that just because Semiconductors happened to turn bullish on the Bell Curve at the moment a war broke out that could hurt microchips. The more important point is that this sector was super-strong throughout much of the year. And the sectors (and stocks) that outperform during rallies – like the one we saw between May and August – usually outperforms after the market finds its low off a correction or pullback. This is a sector that would normally be a great place to look for stocks worthy of your investing dollars. Now? A geopolitical monkey wrench may or may not be headed for the Semiconductors sector. Now here’s a tip you won’t see on MSNBC. One way to determine whether the market has likely found a bottom, is to see if bad news sends prices lower. If we’re seeing “bad” news out of the Fed… or Congress… Or anywhere else… And yet the market appears to want to go higher (or at least not go lower)... Then it’s safe to start buying again. And we are seeing strength return to the market. Here’s one more shot of the Bell Curve, this one taken after yesterday’s close. From zero bullish sectors to four bullish sectors in a week. Not bad… And that was in the face of some absolutely horrific news. As always, when it comes to investing decisions, we’ll ignore the news. That won’t keep up from attending to the human and humanitarian events in our world. But it will keep us from being misled about what’s happening in the market. Have a good weekend, and I’ll see you next week. Let us all hope for the best, Bill Spencer Editor-in-Chief, True Market Insiders   [Here’s Why the S&P Will Gain 25 Percent]( [How to “Clean Up” by Cleaning the Environment]( [Putting a Correction into the Proper Context]( [YouTube]( [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( DISCLAIMER ©2023 by True Market Insiders, LLC, Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This Newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of: True Market Insiders, 7901 4th St. N STE 6113 St. Petersburg, FL 33702. 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