Here’s what our Volatility-Resistant Model is telling us about the markets

We just rebalanced for April You are receiving this email because you signed up to receive emails from True Market Insiders. [Unsubscribe here]( Keep the emails you value from falling into your spam folder. [Whitelist True Market Insiders](. Forgot your login information? Click [here](. EDITOR’S NOTE: I’m sharing some market analysis from the team over at Avalon today. From time to time, I like to give you a behind-the-scenes look at what clients at money management firms come to expect from their investing teams. Dear Reader, For long-term investors, the first quarter of 2023 brought mildly positive returns with a truckload of volatility. Not surprising, as March was a month of unprecedented news. The highlights were: - The 2nd and 3rd largest bank collapses in U.S. history. - Multiple countries ditch the U.S. Dollar for the Chinese Yuan. - The Fed raised Interest rates to their highest levels since 2007. - Credit Suisse, one of the world’s largest banks, collapsed in under 48 hours and was bought by UBS. - President Trump has been indicted and is the first U.S. president to face criminal charges. However, despite the mid-month sell-off, the month of March pleasantly surprised investors with a month-end rally, ending both the month and the quarter higher. As shown above, the market rally was fairly uniform, as both of March’s VRM holdings, EFA and JNK, followed a similar trajectory. Looking at the Q1 numbers, the real winner turned out to be technology as mean reversion saw 2022 worst performers become 2023 best performers. The Nasdaq is up over 20% over 93 days. Across the entire S&P 500, the average stock was up 3% in Q1. That is much lower than the 7% that the S&P gained at the index level. This means that the largest stocks in the index gained more than the smallest stocks. This really points to the fact the market breadth really has been quite awful. How bad? The entire market cap gains in the S&P 500 came from the top 15 companies. The remaining part of the index actually has lost money YTD. The rally seems to have been more about liquidity, rather than fundamentally driven. But as we head into April, there are signs that the market rally may be broadening out. When viewing asset categories on the basis of absolute return rankings, we can see an increase that the number of attractive asset categories is expanding. In fact, the presence of the S&P 500 (SPY) is the first time since January 2022! We can also see an increase in the number of positive sectors where demand is again increasing. Just one week ago, only two U.S. Sectors demonstrated short-term demand – today that picture is much more positive. April seasonality trends suggest the buying pressure could continue. Since 1950, the S&P has posted average and median April returns of 1.5% and 1.2% respectively. In addition, the index (S&P 500) has finished positive during the month 71% of the time, marking the highest positivity rate on the calendar. And we’ve got the perfect way to help you keep an eye on what opportunity is coming next this month… The team at Avalon is dedicated to seeing people succeed, so we send ADAPT every week with market insights from a responsible money management perspective – not just one-off stock ideas. If you’d like to hear more from the team and get a behind-the-scenes look at how Avalon is investing their clients’ money, [go here and sign up now](. It’s your only way to get intel on major shifts in the stock market and asset categories right to your inbox to help you make more informed investment decisions. Not to brag, but we sold our stocks and bonds back in April of 2022 and went into cash for a horrific couple of months – saving our clients incredible losses. The same goes for the shift to International Equities being on top in December… If you were subscribed to ADAPT, you would have been privy to those shifts too, and able to make moves for yourself to help you hedge against inflation and loss. [Click to subscribe and join us now]( – we look forward to talking to you more soon. DISCLAIMER: True Market Insiders sent this to you on behalf of a third party, Avalon, a registered investment advisor. Avalon and True Market Insiders are separate entities. Neither company owns the other. Both companies are owned by Chris Rowe. 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