Never Be On The Wrong Side Of Another Historically Repeating Market Cycle Or Trend⦠ Welcome to this week's Seasoned Stocks: Trade of the Week where we show you one trade you should be looking into for the week. We dive deep and take a look at how this stock has behaved historically during this time period. This is information you are going to want to read. We do this every week for you, so keep an eye out for another one next week. We do not give âspecificâ trading recommendations, rather âgeneralâ market information thatâs purpose is to provide you an edge in your trading. Now, letâs get into today's report. The stock we will focus on is ticker symbol: AG ,which is First Majestic Silver. First Majestic Silver engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of mineral properties with a focus on silver and gold production.
From a seasonality perspective you can see below that 93% of the time, since 2006, AG has an Average Move Up of +19.55% over 29 trading days. This period in time has experienced a wonderful Profit Factor of 22, meaning for every $1 in loss, it gained $22. This is an excellent risk adjusted return metric. Â Â 100% winners in the past 5 years! The Average Move Up is 14.59% ... Â Â [CLICK HERE FOR 50% OFF SEASONED STOCKS SCANNER]( [CLICK HERE]( Â Below is an yearly breakdown...thereâs some really really nice High Points. About 40% of the time, thereâs been -10% or more swing lows and all but one did not recover to profit. Thus, take volatility potential into account and/or wait for technical triggers to help potentially better time the trade while minimizing your risk. Â Â Below is a Cumulative Chart of the âaverage meanâ seasonal move, as you can see in the light green shaded area, First Majestic Silver has had a solid tendency to finish up on the year end. Â Â As you can see below, the competition has a consensus bullish push up at the same start dates as well... Â Â Hereâs what the chart tells me below. AG-First Majestic Silver has been trading above itâs 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) âyellowâ line for the past month, and itâs in a pullback to the 50-day EMA level that might act as support. If you notice the bottom histograms that are âblueâ, itâs saying that the stock, the industry and the sector are in a medium-term bullish trend.
Should the stock decide to keep moving up, I see solid overhead supply-resistance at the $15.25 level. With the stock currently trading at $13.16 (based on me writing this at 12:40pm EST on Friday 19th, 2021), thatâs a +2.09 move or +15.88% move. A percentage move of this nature might be reasonable, being that it falls with the historical seasonal averages. Thereâs a myriad of ways to trade this. Personally, one way is that Iâd wait for a green candle day, then Iâd wait for the next day to break above the previous green candle day high and place a stop at or below the nearest pivot low. Then my non-negotiable rules are that I must have at least 2-times the reward vs the risk `potentialâ, ideally Iâd like to aim for 3-times potential and manage the position along the way if applicable (thus minimizing my risks, and protecting profits). On the chart below, I drew 2 green candles and a yellow horizontal line of what Iâd look for and when Iâd enter. A green buying day, then a second green day that breaks above previous green day high. Some refer to it as a 3-bar reversal pattern, allow me to briefly explain⦠What Does The 3 Bar Reversal Pattern Look Like?
We are looking, in the case of a down-trending market, for 3 candlesticks to form in this sequence: - A down candlestick (generally red)
- The next candlestick has itâs low below the first candlestick and will be the lowest low of the pattern
- The third candle closes above the middle candlestick   Nothing too fancy but this pattern is pure price action and has the potential to set you up in some decent trades. Note this is an idealized pattern shown above. In reality, you could have several bars heading down (or up) and the pattern is still valid.   See below...This is an 100% hypothetical entry, with stop below previous pivot low, while trying to create a potential 3:1 reward to risk trade set-up. You see the 2 green bars and the break entry that I drew in, which might signal trend reversal back to the upside. To create this hypothetical requires an initial 1 ATR stop, which is pretty tight. You can see the ATR (Average True Range) indicator is averaging about a $0.52 move daily, so this has got a chance to certainly tap me out, which is fine. Thatâs trading, Iâm happy to keep my losses small.   [CLICK HERE FOR 50% OFF SEASONED STOCKS SCANNER]( [ CLICK HEREÂ](  In closing, thereâs a million ways to trade, and thereâs no âone and onlyâ holy-grail way to trade...hopefully these perspectives have proved worth your time, and you find which best fits your personal style. Ok. Thatâs about it, hopefully youâve found value in the information provided. Please remember, do your homework, and fully understand the risk before trading anything.
To learn more about seasonal information on AG-First Majestic Silver and other seasonal opportunities, please click on the link below to access the Seasoned Stocks software: [](
Trade Smart,
Chad Shirley Provided as-is for informational/educational purposes only and should not be construed as invest.ment advice . Past performance may not be not indicative of future results. Always consult your Investment Adviser before any decision. P.S.
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