Biden, GOP Speaker say no default is likely
â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â The Dow was up big yesterday as hopes rose for a deal on the deficit. Both President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) suggest that there will be no default. Markets were optimistic and stocks in Asia looked good this morning. There is an element of danger here - if people are taking a happy ending for granted, the collapse could be all the more terrible if something goes wrong. Yet few are considering this outcome likely at this point. Even Kevin McCarthy's poll numbers are looking good. His favorability ratings are actually outpacing his unfavorability ones - which is rare for a House Speaker. That may not last if there is a default.
Previous polling shows that the public tends to blame the GOP when these things happen. The president, after all, controls the "bully pulpit" and it is easier for him to to put out a coherent message. In contrast, Congress will always be suffering from defections and various dissenters.
Kevin McCarthy may have every reason to settle this dispute amicably and take a small victory however he can get it. Of course, with the presidential election looming (didn't we just have one of those?), don't look for bipartisanship to last much longer.
Speaking of which, there's a presidential election taking place in a key NATO ally. And our political expert, Mr. X, puts it on the line with his prediction. Don't miss it. Keep Moving, Corey Snyder
Publisher, Rogue Investing URGENT: Despite the rosy picture being painted by a potential debt-ceiling agreement - a $500 trillion financial time bomb is set to wreak havoc on America's economy, potentially erasing over $16 trillion in household wealth! But within this catastrophe lies a hidden treasure trove of opportunities. [Click here for everything you need to know](. WORD ON THE STREET Epstein Suit Settled, Goldman's AI Boom, Twitter Declining - Gotta End Those Headlines Some Way - Deutsche Bank is settling a class-action suit accusing it of aiding Jeffrey Epstein. The bank will reportedly pay $75 million to put an end to the matter. And no doubt it's relieved that's the end of it. - No Longer A Safe Space - The Pew Research Center found that Twitter's top users are tweeting less than they were before Elon Musk took over. A quarter of those polled said they won't be on the app in a year. That's what everybody says but few follow through - The Next Great Boom - Goldman Sachs senior strategist predicted that AI could boost productivity by 1.5% over the next decade. He suggested that could "increase S&P 500 profits by 30% or more over the next decade. AI continues to reshape the entire marketplace - but even within the doom and gloom of layoffs and bankruptcies, there are opportunities. [Click here to watch the replay of "Tech Reckoning '23]( and get the tools you need to prosper in the chaos. - Target Says Retail Crime Is Rising - A gloomy projection from Target on retail sales - it suggested $500 million more than last year would be lost because of lost and stolen merchandise. That's a huge increase over the already sizable $763 million lost in the last fiscal year. HOT SPOTS: What's Going on in Geopolitics - Secret Service Scrambles After Security Breach - Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle is reportedly "livid" because of a security failure that allowed an intruder to enter the home of national security adviser Jake Sullivan. No one was hurt in the incident a few weeks ago, but the agency is reportedly taking the matter "extremely seriously." - Russian State TV Warns Public That Defeat Is Not An Option - A pro-Kremlin host warned the Russian public that defeat in Ukraine would raise the "question of our destruction." Vladimir Solovyov said that if Russia lost the war "we will disappear" like Native American tribes. - Ukraine Tells China That It Won't Lose Land - Ukraine told a Chinese envoy that Ukraine wouldn't give away any of its territory in exchange for peace. "Ending the war with a compromise at the expense of Ukraine will not work," said a senior Ukrainian official. CUTTING EDGE: What[']( Happening In Tech - OpenAI Head Urges Regulation - Sam Altman testified before Congress, urging regulation of Artificial Intelligence. He argued for the creation of a new federal agency that would great licenses for those who developed AI models above a certain level of capability, among other proposals. - Americans Think AI Puts Humanity At Risk â A Reuters/Ipsos poll found 61% of Americans think AI could threaten civilization. Those who see negative outcomes resulting from AI outnumber those who see positive outcomes by three times. (I bet everybody still ends up using it though.) - Montana Bans Tik Tok - A state finally did it. Gov. Greg Gianforte banned the popular social media app, making it illegal for app stores to allow users to download it and for the company to operate in Montana. The governor bragged that this was the "most decisive action of any state." TikTok Has Vowed To Fight The Ban FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION --------------------------------------------------------------- âNo world leader today is more disruptive than Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan. Some might say heâs even the most dangerous.â is one of the most powerful countries in NATO. But it's been an unreliable American partner. Could that change if the country's authoritarian strongman is forced from power? Mr. X says don't count on it - Turkey's powerful president may not be heading anywhere. [MY PREDICTION ON TURKEY]( Enjoying Dawn Report? Learn something, made some money?
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