Hunting the Black Swan

Southwest debacle could be an opportunity ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ When I see a "black swan," I think it's hunting season. Here's what I mean... A black swan is an event that comes as a surprise and has a big impact but is easily rationalized later. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is perhaps the best known promoter of the concept, especially with his 2007 book The Black Swan. What would be an example? Something like the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. It seemed to come out of nowhere and dramatically changed our entire way of life. And yet, looking back on it, it seemed eminently predictable. Yesterday had a much smaller event hit the airline industry. Southwest had to cancel fights briefly because of a technical issue. Not surprisingly, LUV was down big soon after opening, though it recovered. Still, it was down on a day when the rest of the industry gained. This isn't the first time it's happened to Southwest. And the company is under heavy criticism from those who suffered from flight delays. The company is also under political attack. "This is another demonstration that Southwest Airlines needs to upgrade their systems and stop the negative impacts to individual travelers," said Senator Maria Cantwell. However, will it cause lasting harm? I have my doubts. When you have an incident like this, it may provide an opportunity. The stock decline could be an opportunity to buy, especially as traders in an era of social media have a tendency to overreact. Obviously, we shouldn't overreact either - being so dedicated to contrarianism that we buy simply because everyone else is selling. But remember that following the popular wisdom is practically guaranteed to have you lose money in the stock market. If buying low and selling high was just about following the crowd, everyone could do it. To win requires a spirit of independence. It requires hunting black swans. Keep Moving, Corey Snyder Publisher, Rogue Investing WORD ON THE STREET Fox Settles Lawsuit, Disney Doubles Down, NYC Wealthiest City - Record High Pessimism On The Economy - According to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, there is record-high pessimism about the American economy. An incredible 69% of the public holds negative views about the economy. Less than a quarter of people think it is a good time to invest in the stock market, the lowest reading in the survey's 17-year history. President Biden's approval rating is also down to 39%. - If You Can Make It There, You Can Make It Anywhere - It's official. The Big Apple has the biggest concentration of millonaires on the planet, with a staggering 340,000. It far outpaces runners-up Tokyo and the San Francisco Bay Area. The figures come from the research firm New World Wealth. Though NYC has the most millionaires, Monaco is the top-ranked city on a wealth per capita basis - Disney Defies DeSantis - The culture wars are heating up in Florida. Disneyland will host a pro-LGBTQ "Pride Night" in June. Though that will be happening in California, it's difficult not to connect the situation to Florida, where the company took a public stance against Governor Ron DeSantis's Parental Rights in Education Bill. - Dominion V. Fox Lawsuit Is Over - Fox News and Dominion Voting Systems have reached a $787.5 million settlement over Fox's statements regarding the 2020 election. Fox admitted in a statement that "the court's rulings [had found] certain claims about Dominion to be false." While the penalty will certainly hurt Fox, the network may have been facing a crushing defeat that conceivably could have taken it off the air. HOT SPOTS: What's Going on in Geopolitics - Russia Upholds Detention Of WSJ Reporter - A Moscow court ruled the government was correct to detain Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who is being held on espionage charges. Russia's security service says the journalist was "acting on the instructions of the American side, [and] collected information constituting a state secret about the activities of one of the enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex." - El Salvador Bonds Surge – El Salvador's bonds are now the best-performing in emerging markets, rising to its highest price since September 2021. President Nayib Bukele celebrated on Twitter, saying "I will not say I told you so." - Iran Threatens To Destroy Israel's Capital - Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is upping tensions in the already unstable Middle East, launching a direct threat against Israel and "extra-regional and American forces." "The slightest mistake against our country will be responded to with a harsh response," he said, "and will be accompanied by the destruction of Haifa and Tel Aviv." CUTTING EDGE: What[']( )s Happening In Tech - Netflix Misses On Subscriber Growth - It was a roller coaster for Netflix yesterday. The company missed analyst expectations when it came to subscriber growth, picking up only 1.75 million people in contrast to the 2.2 million expected. However, it recovered on reports that its ad-supported service is a success. Still, it's the end of an era - the company is ending the actual DVD shipments with which the Netflix story began. - Foldable Smartphone Coming From Google – At the hefty price of more than $1,700, Google will launch a foldable smartphone in June. Called the "Pixel Ford," it is designed to compete with Samsung's $1,799 Galaxy Z Fold 4. - GOP Wants Ban On Legislators Using TikTok - Though TikTok is already banned on government-owned devices, government officials are not actually banned from using TikTok. Some Republicans want to change that. Senator Marshal Blackburn, Rep. Dan Crenshaw, and other Republicans advocate a ban on elected officials using TikTok. "We feel this situation warrants further action to protect the privacy of both sensitive congressional information and the personal information of our constituents," said the lawmakers in a letter. A total ban on TikTok is still being fiercely debated in Congress FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION --------------------------------------------------------------- "Investors should probably dread this." Is the "free market" even a thing? Maybe not. Today, even Republicans are eager to meddle with corporate America. Mr. X argues that this isn't "unfair" but the predictable outcome of political trends... though it spells bad news for investors. [DESANTIS, DISNEY, AND THE FUTURE OF AMERICAN BUSINESS]( ) Enjoying Dawn Report? Learn something, made some money? SHARE YOUR STORY WITH US OR TELL US HOW TO SERVE YOU BETTER. Let us know at info@rogueinvesting.com You’re receiving this email because you're signed up for alerts from Dawn Report. Make sure to keep them coming by [whitelisting Rogue Investing]( ). The information in this email is intended for informational purposes only and does not guarantee specific results as there is a high degree of risk involved with trading. Also, our traders are real traders and may have financial interests in the companies discussed. Please see our [Terms and Conditions]( ) for more information. Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( ) Rogue Investing, 721 Court St., Unit #1, Lynchburg, VA 24504, United States