Clashing forecasts from World Bank and IMF

The choice between prosperity and DOOM ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ The warnings from the Great and the Good are increasing in volume and intensity... but there's a little good news from the World Bank. The organization slightly raised its global growth projection for this year. It's now at 2%, up slightly from 1.7% in January. But here's why I would be a little worried - it relies heavily on China. Chinese growth is now projected for 5.1%, compared to 4.3% previously. There are a lot of assumptions there. Chief among them: - No diplomatic tensions between China and the United States getting in the way of growth. - China not deciding to directly aid Russia in its war in Ukraine. - The Fed not plunging the United States into a recession. That last possibility is about to come to the fore. We're on the brink of getting the Consumer Price Index data - and it's one of those things that's going to shape the entire market. If it's too hot, the Fed is going to increase rates by more than just another quarter-point. The market can't handle another hit like that. So stay mobile, and stay liquid. Remember, the biggest opportunities come from the greatest moments of panic. Keep Moving, Corey Snyder Publisher, Rogue Investing WORD ON THE STREET Musk Vs. BBC, Special Forces In Ukraine, IMF Doomerism - 70% Of Americans "Financially Stressed" - According to a CNBC Your Money/Financial Confidence poll, 70% of Americans report being "financially stressed." Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck, while 60% said inflation is the main reason for their financial problems. - IMF Chief Economist Says We're Screwed - All right, maybe not quite that much, but it's still not great. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Oliver Gourinchas had bad news for the global economy. "We are concerned about what we have seen in the banking sector, particularly the U.S. but also in other countries, might do to growth in 2023," he said. He argued that there is about a 15% chance of a catastrophe which would reduce global growth to about 1%. 15% Odds Of Disaster... Not Great, Not Terrible - Secret Is Out - According to documents leaked online, American Special Forces are in Ukraine. But don't worry, they aren't alone - the United Kingdom, Latvia, France, and the Netherlands also have troops in the country. The Pentagon is investigating the source of the leaks. - Musk Admits Owning Twitter Is Hard - In a fiery interview with the BBC, Elon Musk admitted that taking over Twitter has been hard for him, calling it a "rollercoaster." Musk also didn't back down from his decision to label the British Broadcasting Corporation as "state media," something the Beeb has fiercely resisted. HOT SPOTS: What's Going on in Geopolitics - Russia Tightens Draft - Cracking down on draft evasion, Moscow is moving to supply a steady flow of manpower for its never-ending war in Ukraine. Draftees are now banned from leaving the country. The Duma approved the legislation with just one abstention. - Japan Sounds Warning On China's Military Drills – It's the great unanswered question of Asian geopolitics - will Japan rearm? Japan said it was following China's recent military drills around Taiwan with "great interest." The Japanese government claimed "peace and stability" in the Taiwan Strait was important both for the security of Japan and the rest of the world. - Crimea Prepares For Ukrainian Attack - The head of Russian-occupied Ukraine boasted that Crimea is ready for a rumored Ukrainian counteroffensive. "We cannot underestimate the enemy, but we can definitely say that we are ready [for an attack] and that there will be no catastrophe," said Sergei Aksyonov, head of the region. Russian forces have dug large trenches and other fixed defenses to repel any assault. CUTTING EDGE: What[']( )s Happening In Tech - Layoffs Don't Stop Hunt For Cheap Labor - Big Tech is laying off thousands of workers, but that isn't stopping Silicon Valley from seeking replacements in H1-B vias. According to analytics from the Economic Policy Institute, the top 30 H1-B employers hired 34,000 new workers using the visa program in 2022. However, the same companies have already laid off at least 85,000 workers in 2022 and early 2023. - Coinbase Bounces Back – Despite the recent shot across the bow from the federal government, Coinbase isn't being left out of Bitcoin's recent rally. COIN was up more than 6% yesterday. This came despite the exit of Vishal Gupta, head of exchange and markets at the company for about 3 years. - Elizabeth Holmes Can't Dodge Prison - Former Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes, who was crucified of fraud last year, has lost her bid to stay out of prison. Judge Edward Davila found she is not a flight risk but said the court hasn't found a significant reason to stay out of prison. An appeal is unlikely to succeed - the 9th Circuit recently rejected an appeal by another Theranos executive to stay out of prison FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION --------------------------------------------------------------- “As customers look for value, WMT is well positioned to win an increasing share of budget shoppers and those willing to pay a premium for membership in a streaming service.” Walmart is at a crossroads. The chain is closing locations in Chicago for unknown reasons (though Mr. X has his suspicious). At the same time, the company is gearing up for a massive automation effort. What's next for Walmart? Mr. X sets the stage. [UPDATE AFTER WALMART'S INVESTOR MEETING]( ) Enjoying Dawn Report? Learn something, made some money? SHARE YOUR STORY WITH US OR TELL US HOW TO SERVE YOU BETTER. 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