Inflation data ready to ROCK Fed

Jerome Powell may have to change his plan ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ The next inflation report is hitting at perhaps the worst possible time. Futures are up going into this morning, under the (mistaken) assumption that the Fed is going to have to call retreat on interest rates because of the recent bank failures. Yet what if the Consumer Price Index shows that inflation hasn't been reduced? It should be hitting just before markets open today. Consensus is that it will show inflation to be "sticky" and stubborn. This means that the Federal Reserve is going to keep raising interest rates. And that could be a problem for the Narrative. Right now, the combination of an inherently sensationalist media and the real threat that these bank failures pose mean that the Federal Reserve is going to come under real pressure to take its foot off the brakes. If the tech sector starts to stumble, and the unemployment rate spikes even as inflation continues... well, then we get the nightmare scenario. That's stagflation. Already, we're seeing a bit of a panic rally in crypto and precious metals. We're also seeing a dip in energy stocks... and that could be an opportunity. If the economy expands, especially as China steps up demand, now is the time to get in on the ground floor... [And I've identified one surprising energy stock that could bring in triple-digit returns this year.]( ) But for that to happen, the Fed needs not to bungle this crisis. Remember, regardless of what happens, the same opportunities remain. It's just a question of a different approach... and using the same tools in a different way. Keep Moving, COACH'S CORNER "I haven’t seen a day as flat and indecisive on SPX in many years. Intra-day directional trades were almost impossible – nothing but chop and fake-out moves. I typically have some general idea of what’s going to happen overnight. But I’ll be honest; I went into the close flat." "My indicators gave mixed signals, and I needed more convincing to risk my money. Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing." "The market is headed lower, and this banking debacle has me flashing back to 2008. Although we don’t have the same systemic problems now as then, the economy isn’t healthy." "Greed and fear drive the stock market, and we’re reaching a critical mass of fear." "This usually means that a reversal is around the corner. We’ve fallen so far, so fast, that the highest probability play is bullish." "Don’t take this to mean you should buy the dip. I wouldn’t be making any long-term investment decisions right now." "But there may be some opportunities to go long for short-term traders." "Take a look at the SPX daily chart above:" "Just ignore your biases and trade what you see. Don’t get caught in a bear trap." "We’re nearing the green support layer keeping the market afloat. Sure, we’ve gone through it, but this zone has proven resilient." "Sell-offs, like we’ve had this week, don’t continue indefinitely. If you shorted before the drop, then great job." "However, the move has already happened. So be on the lookout for the bounce." "Don’t let herd mentality decapitate your trades with a swift reversal." "I usually have some recommendations, but all I have for you currently is to be patient and wait for opportunities." "Whether your trades are bearish or bullish, make sure you follow your plan and stick to your stop losses." Cheers, Chris Hood WORD ON THE STREET Mortgage Rates Decline, CPI Report Hits, Frank's Failure - Mortgage Rate Retreats From Highs - The sudden suspense about what is going to happen with interest rates may be good news for homebuyers. Rates for the 30-year mortgage fell to 6.57% on Monday - not bad considering they were over 7% less than a week ago. Some hope the lower rates will encourage buyers to return to the struggling housing market. - Barney Frank's "Signature" Accomplishment - Rep. Barney Frank, one of the co-sponsors of the Dodd-Frank Act that reformed banks after the 2008 financial crisis, was on the board of Signature Bank. He expressed shock and disappointment in an interview with the New York Times. "They shoot one man to encourage the others," he said. "I think we were shot to encourage the others to stay away from crypto." The former congressman pushed back on charges that de-regulation caused the collapse. "I can tell you personally there was no diminution of regulation," he said on NPR. - All Eyes On CPI - Expectations are for a 0.4% rise in prices in February for the Consumer Price Index. That would be 6% from last year. Of course, the recent instability in the banking sector may overwhelm the inflation data, forcing the Fed to change its plans for combatting inflation. - United Falls By Almost 7% In After-Hours - United Airlines warned that it faces a loss in the first quarter, partially because of labor troubles and also because of weaker demand for travel. UAL was down more than 4% during the trading day and 6.92% in after-hours. HOT SPOTS: What's Going on in Geopolitics - Chinese Company Denies Tesla Is Pulling Out Of Agreement - Tesla is still going to be working with Chinese battery maker BYD Co Ltd - at least according to BYD. The company denied a report from the Korean press that Tesla was backing away from a request to provide additional batteries for Tesla Model 3 vehicles. BYD said that report "is not in line with the actual situation." - The Empire Strikes Back – King Charles III celebrated his first Commonwealth Day as sovereign, and the Anglosphere is still showing signs of unity. The United Kingdom, the United States, and Australia touted the new AUKUS agreement that will preserve a "free and open" Pacific through Australia's purchase of nuclear submarines. The three powers will also work together on AI, hypersonic missiles, and other areas of national defense. - International Criminal Court Will Open War Crimes Trial Against Russia - The ICC is reportedly planning to open several cases against Russia's conduct of the invasion of Ukraine. One case is expected to investigate Russia's alleged abduction of Ukrainian children. Another will reportedly challenge Russia's alleged deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. CUTTING EDGE: What[']( )s Happening In Tech - Buttigieg Targeting Tesla - Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg said that Tesla's "Autopilot" program is misleadingly labeled. "I wouldn't call something 'Autopilot' if the manual explicitly says that you have to have your hands on the wheel and the eyes on the road all the time," he said. "That's not saying anything about the NHTSA [National Highway Traffic Safety Administration] scope of investigation, I'm just saying at a common sense level." Right, whatever you say. - Tech Companies Win Victory On Contractors– Proposition 22, which allowed companies like Uber, Lyft, DoorDash and others to characterize their workers as contractors instead of, well, workers, has been upheld by an appeals court. (Mostly.) Barring a few sections about union organization, Proposition 22 will mostly be reimplemented, overruling an earlier ruling. The SEIU is likely to appeal the decision. - Crypto Spikes Even As Sector In Jeopardy - Bitcoin pushed for $25,000 after cryptocurrency rallied even as the future of exchanges - well, the ones that are left - seems rocky following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Global market cap grew by more than 4.6% yesterday compared to Sunday as of about 11PM EST. It's the biggest spike in Bitcoin prices in over a month FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION --------------------------------------------------------------- "We're moving closer to the end of the unipolar world that Russia is always talking about. We're not there yet. Luckily, we know exactly what to look for." A new international diplomatic agreement was a shot across the bow of the United States, especially when it comes to energy policy. Now, something even more important looks like it's going to happen in Russia. Mr. X says that we could be on the brink of a historic shift - but we still don't know if it's a new epoch or just another false start. [THE REALIGNMENT HITS]( ) Enjoying Dawn Report? Learn something, made some money? SHARE YOUR STORY WITH US OR TELL US HOW TO SERVE YOU BETTER. Let us know at info@rogueinvesting.com You’re receiving this email because you're signed up for alerts from Dawn Report. Make sure to keep them coming by [whitelisting Rogue Investing]( ). The information in this email is intended for informational purposes only and does not guarantee specific results as there is a high degree of risk involved with trading. Also, our traders are real traders and may have financial interests in the companies discussed. Please see our [Terms and Conditions]( ) for more information. Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( ) Rogue Investing, 721 Court St., Unit #1, Lynchburg, VA 24504, United States