The Silicon Valley Crisis of Credibility

Treasury promises Silicon Valley Bank depositors will get their money ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ Today is about credibility. The Treasury Department, the White House, and the Powers That Be are telling us the crisis is over. Today we will find out. The president is expected to address the country today on the situation involving Silicon Valley Bank, not to mention Signature Bank. Now, in theory, taxpayers aren't on the hook for this. More than that, all deposits are covered, not just those under FDIC. So in theory, it's done. And as of this writing, futures were up strongly. Yet all this depends on the panic not spreading to other banks. There were some lines at banks on Friday, especially at First Republic, but that too has supposedly been remedied. It all comes down to this - do you believe the people in charge? There are plenty of reasons to doubt. But we should also remember that there are plenty of nonsensical arguments that people are going to make - based on rumors, outlandish theories, and outright lies. I'm all for a good theory, frankly, but I trade based on the numbers. Before I do anything, I want to see the proof. And that is the most important thing I can say going into today. Today is going to be events-driven. One can't ignore what the government is going to do on a day like this. What the president says is also going to be very important. But the fundamental rules have not changed. MORE THAN EVER: - Stick to your trading tools - Don't move before you see hard proof - Remember you have a team at your back Keep Moving, COACH'S CORNER "Monday’s drop in the financial sector put continued downward pressure on all the major indices. The VIX spiked, and we entered the weekend on a seriously bearish note. No doubt volatility will remain elevated as we await more inflation data this week." "Looking at the SPX daily chart above, I see two possible scenarios playing out this week." "First, a relief rally to resistance at $3945.00 or a continued fall to support at the $3810 level. It’s impossible to tell which will play out or how long it might take. With this uncertain market, I wouldn’t be placing any long-term trades." "I’m sticking to time frames that are 78 minutes or less." "Though we could definitely see more downside in the financial sector, be very careful about 'shorting in the hole.'" "Friday ended with a doji candle, as shown in the daily XLF chart below. This equal-armed candle suggests indecision between the bulls and bears." "Candlestick patterns aren’t the strongest technical indicator, but dojis often signal the start of reversals. So wait for the day to get going before you make any directional trades on XLF or any banks. Use your indicators to guide you." "When everyone is bearish, I get skeptical. So should you." "Just ignore your biases and trade what you see. Don’t get caught in a bear trap." Cheers, Chris Hood WORD ON THE STREET No Bailouts, Rate Hike Odds Down, FIRE!!! - Bad News Is Good News - Banks are going bust, so that means the stock market is about to collapse, right? Not necessarily. With the banking system suddenly in jeopardy, prediction markets are showing the odds for another major rate hike at the next Federal Reserve meeting declining. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have gone so far as to predict that they no longer expect a rate hike in the short-term. - "We're not going to do that again" - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen vowed no repeat of the bank bailouts that characterized the 2008 financial crisis. "The reforms that have been put in place means that we're not going to do that again," she said. "But we are concerned about depositors and are focused on trying to meet their needs." Yellen said "the American banking system is really safe and well-capitalized... it's resilient." Well, we'll see, won't we? - He Just... Tweeted It Out - Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) tweeted out that in a meeting with government officials, "A Democrat Senator essentially asked whether there was a program in place to censor information on social media that could lead to a run on the banks." In response to a respondent who said this might be justified because it might be a situation like someone yelling fire in a crowded theater, Rep. Massie shot back, "What about yelling fire in a theater that's on fire?" - SIVB Depositors Will Get Money Back - According to financial regulators at the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and FDIC, "Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13." Furthermore, taxpayers won't cover any losses. Banks will be able to pledge mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries in exchange for cash, thus mitigating the risk that they will run out of money in a bank run. HOT SPOTS: What's Going on in Geopolitics - HSBC Snatches Silicon Valley Bank UK - The British government announced that it and the Bank of England "facilitated a private sale of Silicon Valley Bank UK to HSBC." Finance Minister Jeromy Hunt claimed that this deal would protect all deposits while imposing no costs on the public. - Wagner Being Used As Cannon Fodder? – The Wagner Group has been the face of the Russian military's efforts around Bakhmut, but progress is slow. According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, the Russian Ministry of Defense is taking its revenge on the group and its press-hungry frontman Yevgeny Prigozhin by deliberately thinning out its ranks. Ukraine claims to have killed 1,000 soldiers in the last few days. - China's Premier Promises Growth - New People's Republic of China Premier Li Qiang promised economic growth and a 5% target - though he noted it wouldn't be easy to achieve. However, he also said that he would be focusing on what ordinary people need, including housing and health care. This suggests that social priorities may be emphasized at the expense of economic growth itself - possibly troubling foreign investors. CUTTING EDGE: What[']( )s Happening In Tech - Twitter Getting A Rival From Facebook? - According to a spokesman from Meta Platforms, the Facebook parent company is looking to start a possible rival to Twitter. "We believe there's an opportunity for a separate space where creators and public figures can share timely updates about their interests," the spokesman said. Elon Musk tweeted a cat emoji, suggesting it is a copycat move. Unless, you know, it's Musk and it just means something random and insane. - Deel Offers Cash For Customers To Meet Payroll – Payroll provider Deel is freeing up $120 million off its own books to help its customers meet payroll if they've been hit by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. "We'll see what happens, you can never be fully certain," said co-founder and CEO Alex Bouaziz. "But in the meantime, we're ready with our customers, and customers right now and whatever we can do to help we'll be there." - Etsy Delays Seller Payouts - Sellers at Etsy are caught in the middle as the marketplace has been rocked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. "Our teams have been working around the clock to implement a solution, and we expect to pay sellers via our other payment partners within the next several business days." ETSY is expected to be able to start processing payments today. Sellers are being forced to handle expenses without revenue for longer than expected FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION --------------------------------------------------------------- “If Bitcoin is ever going to prove its usefulness, it will be soon.” With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the very future of cryptocurrency is under threat. I'm sure that actually has people in power pretty happy. But what about investors? Mr. X argues that the real time of testing is about to begin. [IS THIS THE END OF CRYPTO?]( ) Enjoying Dawn Report? Learn something, made some money? SHARE YOUR STORY WITH US OR TELL US HOW TO SERVE YOU BETTER. Let us know at info@rogueinvesting.com You’re receiving this email because you're signed up for alerts from Dawn Report. Make sure to keep them coming by [whitelisting Rogue Investing]( ). The information in this email is intended for informational purposes only and does not guarantee specific results as there is a high degree of risk involved with trading. 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