Here’s More Proof We’re Not Heading for a Collapse

[Cycles Trading With Phil Anderson]( Welcome to Cycles Trading with me, Phil Anderson. My aim with this three-day-per-week e-letter is to introduce you to the most powerful knowledge for building wealth. And that’s the 18.6-year real estate cycle and its key relationship to stocks. Every 18.6 years, property, economy, and stock markets move through a repeating series of peaks and troughs – like clockwork. And the market has followed this cycle for over 200 years. Using this knowledge, I’ve been able to forecast every major market move over my 34-year career. If this is your first time tuning in, catch up on my[background]( how I [predict the markets]( and how I’ll help you avoid [false alarms]( from the mainstream media. Here’s More Proof We’re Not Heading for a Collapse By Phil Anderson, Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson The credit market is in turmoil… or so you hear from the mainstream media. Bond prices are falling off a cliff… which sends yields higher (the two are inversely related)… Stocks are shaky, and the U.S. dollar is soaring. Sounds like the market is nervous… Or is it? Well, we have a new data point proving that the market commentariat may be overstated. It’s called the “Credit VIX”… Recommended Link [“180% in Just 2 hours…”]( [image]( Subscriber R.B. – January 17, 2023: “This week YOU made a major believer out of me. I netted a 180% return… THAT is THE BEST gain over 2 hours I have EVER obtained.” [Click here to learn the 3-letter ticker R.B. and others have been trading to make $10,000s in this market.]( -- New Credit Index Confirms Where We Are in the 18.6-Year Cycle You may have heard of the VIX, which is often called the “fear index.” The underlying math is quite complex, but the idea is that a higher index reading tells you that the equity market is scared. Now, Cboe Global Markets and S&P Global are about to launch “Credit VIX,” which will estimate how nervous bond investors are. The index will track volatility expectations over the following month for several kinds of bonds, including investment-grade ones (the safer sort) and the high-yield ones (often called “junk bonds”). The index launches on October 13, but we already have simulated historical data for it. This history was backfilled with data going back to 2012. So what do we see here? Note that VIXHY tracks high-yield debt, and VIXIG tracks investment-grade bonds. [chart] Source: Cboe Global Markets, Inc. Press Release [(Click here to expand image)]( Well, the picture is clear… Credit Volatility Has Fallen Since Mid-2022 You have all the usual suspects here… the Taper Tantrum, the Covid pandemic, the Silicon Valley banking crisis… What you don’t see necessarily is the descent into credit chaos that the media is talking about. Yes, when the Fed and other central banks started hiking, the Credit VIX index went up. But since late 2022 (excluding the SVB drama, which was well-contained as it wasn’t systemic), credit volatility has been in decline. But aren’t companies supposed to be tumbling under their now-impossible debt burdens? Aren’t bond investors supposed to be dumping their Treasury holdings at record rates? Well, the data shows that since late 2022, credit markets have been quite orderly. And yes, some investors are selling bonds now… because the economy is stronger than they expected. …As I’ve told my readers multiple times, now is not the time for a recession. So solid employment numbers should not send you into a panic mode. The economy is doing well, that’s why some investors are selling bonds. Also, because the economy is doing well, businesses are managing their debt just fine. And if you look closely at the chart above, you’ll notice that the credit market is acting similarly to before the Fed’s hiking saga. In other words, the credit market feels just as good now as it did in 2021. And that’s exactly what my 18.6-year real estate cycle predicts. The credit market is expanding… the economy is doing well… Keep calm and carry on. We’re in for some good times over the next few years. Regards, [signature] Phil Anderson Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson --------------------------------------------------------------- Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to [feedback@rogueeconomics.com](mailto:feedback@rogueeconomics.com?subject=RE: Cycles Trading Feedback). IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… [Have you heard of this weird 3-second Bitcoin “loophole”?]( Last year at the Miami Bitcoin conference, this millionaire trader revealed how to rake in gains as high as 660%... 810%...even 1,925% from Bitcoin from simple setups triggered by volatile market moves. The next Bitcoin event is happening October 18th! Watch his demonstration BEFORE this event to claim your piece of the action. [Click here to see 3-second loophole]( [image]( [Rogue Economincs]( Rogue Economics 55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483 [www.rogueeconomics.com]( [Tweet]( [TWITTER]( To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please [add our email address]( to your address book. This editorial email containing advertisements was sent to {EMAIL} because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click [here](. Rogue Economics welcomes your feedback and questions. But please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized advice. To contact Customer Service, call toll free Domestic/International: 1-800-681-1765, Mon–Fri, 9am–7pm ET, or email us [here](mailto:memberservices@rogueeconomics.com). © 2023 Rogue Economics. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution of our content, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Rogue Economics. [Privacy Policy]( | [Terms of Use](