Here’s More Proof We’re Not in A Bear Market

[Cycles Trading With Phil Anderson]( Welcome to Cycles Trading with me, Phil Anderson. My aim with this three-day-per-week e-letter is to introduce you to the most powerful knowledge for building wealth. And that’s the 18.6-year real estate cycle and its key relationship to stocks. Every 18.6 years, property, economy, and stock markets move through a repeating series of peaks and troughs – like clockwork. And the market has followed this cycle for over 200 years. Using this knowledge, I’ve been able to forecast every major market move over my 34-year career. If this is your first time tuning in, catch up on my[background]( how I [predict the markets]( and how I’ll help you avoid [false alarms]( from the mainstream media. Here’s More Proof We’re Not in A Bear Market By Phil Anderson, Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson When we started publishing Cycles Trading back in January, we made several predictions. In one of our [late-January issues]( I said that homebuilders have “clear skies ahead.” My reasons were: [I]nterest rates are stabilizing. The Fed isn’t likely to hike in massive 75 basis-points steps. The reason is slowing inflation. In December, consumer prices fell month-on-month for the first time in 2.5 years. And mortgage rates have fallen by almost a full percentage point since they peaked in November 2022. Back then, the average mortgage rate stood at 7.1%. As of writing, the average mortgage rate is 6.3%. And it will decrease further as the Fed slows down its hiking. In other words, 2023 is going to be a bumper year for homebuilders. All these trends continue… And we continue to see proof that the 18.6-year real estate cycle is right. Recommended Link [Man Named “Top 10” Timer by Timer Digest in 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993, and 1994 Issues “Trade of a Lifetime”?]( [image]( He might just be the most accurate forecaster to have ever lived… On October 8, 1987 – 11 days before Black Monday – he recommended people short the stock market… A move that made Paul Tudor Jones $100 million. In 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, and 1993 he was named a “top 10 trader” by Timer Digest. And they put him on the cover in 1994. Then, he closed off his research to the regular public. But kept publishing his forecasts to the hedge funds and billionaires who paid him dearly for the privilege… In 2008, he called the bottom of the financial crisis – months in advance… In 2020, he called the top of the market before the Covid crash… Then, a month later, he told his clients to get back in – right at the bottom… $10,000 in the 13 stocks he recommended could have turned into $2.3 million. On January 3, 2022, he called the top of the market. The very next day, stocks started their plunge… And, earlier this year, one forecast he made could have turned $100k into $6.3 million… In two days. That’s why his clients pay him between $5,000 and $10,000 (a month!) for his insights. But now he’s preparing for a major event which he’ll publicly reveal. And some are speculating he may be preparing for the “trade of a lifetime.” Is he? [The Prophecy An Exclusive Event with ‘Master Timer’ Mason Sexton (Click Here to watch now)]( -- We’re Not in a Bear Market Take a look at this chart. It tracks the performance of a homebuilder ETF and a semiconductor ETF since January 24. [chart] Both are up over 20%, and semiconductor stocks are trading close to their all-time highs. The AI craze and ChatGPT hype helped the semiconductor sector. There’s no denying that. But it happened for a reason. The economy is growing, and productivity improves all the time. The latest wave of AI enthusiasm is part of a bigger trend. This is what experts don’t get. They think that these “cyclical” stocks shouldn’t perform well. Bloomberg discussed this confusion recently: However, a number of signs suggest just as strongly that if this isn’t a bull market, it’s a very strange occurrence. For example, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gina Martin Adams points out that two of the three leading sectors among US large caps are now at new highs — semiconductors and homebuilders — while transport is missing out. She said: “This doesn’t happen in a bear market.” And indeed, it’s very odd for usually highly cyclical sectors to be setting highs when the bears are in control. This doesn’t happen in a bear market because we aren’t in one. I’ve said it many times… However, recession remains the default scenario this year, according to the majority of the talking heads you see on financial TV. As I said in January… and have repeated many times since… “There’s no recession in sight.” Before the 18.6-year cycle turns, we will see optimism, higher valuations, and credit creation at a level that you haven’t seen yet. The second half of the cycle has officially begun. Both economic and stock price data suggest so. But most investors prefer not to pay too much attention to it for some reason. It’s their choice. If You Listened to My Forecast, You’d Be Up 40% If you had taken my forecast seriously earlier this year, you’d already have made over 20%. And we have the whole second half of this year ahead of us. I see more of the same. Slowing inflation, no interest rate shocks, and the market that will finally realize that it has been grumpy for the wrong reason. 2022 was the year of fear. And I told my readers 2023 would be an up year. If you joined my The Signal newsletter when we launched back in April, you would already be up 40% on one of our picks… and up on four others, with my “right stocks, right time” system. And there’s more ahead. You can check it out [here](. Regards, [signature] Phil Anderson Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson --------------------------------------------------------------- Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to [feedback@rogueeconomics.com](mailto:feedback@rogueeconomics.com?subject=RE: Cycles Trading Feedback). Recommended Link [From -60% Account to Doubling His Money?]( [image]( After helping his readers double their money 13 TIMES in the last year alone… There’s ONE person trader Jeff Clark has NOT been able to help! His 23-year-old son, Grant. Like many people, Jeff’s son was sucked into the hype of crypto and tech stocks... His investments have taken a colossal beating, a -60% LOSS. Jeff tried to warn him… But it was no use. Today, [Jeff is in Miami, Florida, and in a moment he’s going to grab his son]( because it’s time to help him get back on track. Jeff’s staging an emergency “Financial Intervention.” [Click here to see how Jeff plans to turn his son’s -60% loss into a HUGE win.]( -- [Rogue Economincs]( Rogue Economics 55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483 [www.rogueeconomics.com]( [Tweet]( [TWITTER]( To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please [add our email address]( to your address book. This editorial email containing advertisements was sent to {EMAIL} because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click [here](. Rogue Economics welcomes your feedback and questions. But please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized advice. To contact Customer Service, call toll free Domestic/International: 1-800-681-1765, Mon–Fri, 9am–7pm ET, or email us [here](mailto:memberservices@rogueeconomics.com). © 2023 Rogue Economics. All rights reserved. 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