Here’s What Buying at the Wrong Time Looks Like

[Cycles Trading With Phil Anderson]( Welcome to Cycles Trading with me, Phil Anderson. My aim with this three-day-per-week e-letter is to introduce you to the most powerful knowledge for building wealth. And that’s the 18.6-year real estate cycle and its key relationship to stocks. Every 18.6 years, property, economy, and stock markets move through a repeating series of peaks and troughs – like clockwork. And the market has followed this cycle for over 200 years. Using this knowledge, I’ve been able to forecast every major market move over my 34-year career. If this is your first time tuning in, catch up on my[background]( how I [predict the markets]( and how I’ll help you avoid [false alarms]( from the mainstream media. Here’s What Buying at the Wrong Time Looks Like By Phil Anderson, Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson During the second half of the 1980s, we saw inflation steadily munching away at people’s purchasing power and house prices steadily climbing into the end of the decade. But those were the “good” times. And the two short recessions that happened didn’t spoil the good times. By the end of the decade, house prices were 80% higher than in 1979. [chart] I remember how people justified house price increases by going against their own logic and arguments they preached a few years before. It went like this: when house prices slowed down or grew moderately, and the expectation was that they would go down, it was due to inflation. Then, when house prices rose, you guessed it, it was due to inflation. I remember being perplexed at how adults rationalize facts with flawed or incomplete logic. However, that shock was nothing compared to witnessing their shift in purchasing behavior in the later years. House prices went up substantially in the first half of that decade, and by the mid-’80s, most people thought that they were too expensive and unaffordable. “House prices will crash for sure; they’re too high. I’m going to wait until they drop, and then I will buy my house,” I heard a family acquaintance say. Yet, by the end of the decade, he bought at a much higher price. Can you imagine how he and his family must have felt in the early ‘90s recession? Like him, many hard-working people felt priced out due to “temporary” inflation and house price rises in the first half of the decade. The news said, “House prices are unaffordable,” and it certainly must have felt that way. They waited and waited as house prices did what they were not supposed to do: stabilize, go up slightly, then decisively, and then more. They waited until reality was evident enough to undo their well-entrenched “stay put” decision. As FOMO (fear of missing out) brewed and easier financing made affording homes possible, they borrowed and bought their home by the end of the decade. If you know your economic history, you know what that means, buying pretty much at the “wrong time.” And they paid a price for it. Recommended Link [Nomi Prins: “I recommend this ‘Hard Asset’ to my own friends and family”]( [image]( $100 is all you need… Former Goldman Sachs managing director Dr. Nomi Prins has identified an investment she’s calling ‘the world’s hardest asset’ – and she’s recommending it to friends, family, and followers. She’s talked about it on podcasts… live TV… and in her newest, bestselling book, Permanent Distortion. Dr. Prins says: “This asset has nothing to do with gold or silver, but it has many of the same features to protect your wealth – and preserve your privacy.” As the turbulence in our world grows worse and worse… [Click here now to see what Nomi is recommending before it’s too late.]( -- Will History Repeat Itself in the 2020s? Inflation is moderating in the United States. In May, prices rose by 4% over the previous 12 months. In response, the Fed has announced that it would not hike interest rates this time. The events unfolding now remind me of the tune of the mid- to late-‘80s. If that’s correct, where should property prices and the shape of the economic activity be heading into the rest of the decade? Let’s look at some pointers. Right now, inflation is still biting chunks out of disposable income, increasing pressure on households to make ends meet. Or worse, prompting the choice, “eat or heat.” At the same time, tenants are priced out in some areas as rents soar. House prices were supposed to tumble as interest rates climbed, but they stabilized and recovered ever so slightly. In the United States, home sales increased 4.1% in April. As property prices are deemed unaffordable in this still-inflationary environment, I wonder what the 1980s family acquaintance would say… For those of us studying economic history in the context of the 18.6-year real estate cycle, the landscape should be telling… Is history about to repeat again? Regards, [signature] Phil Anderson Editor, Cycles Trading with Phil Anderson --------------------------------------------------------------- Like what you’re reading? Send your thoughts to [feedback@rogueeconomics.com](mailto:feedback@rogueeconomics.com?subject=RE: Cycles Trading Feedback). IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… [Millionaire Trader Reveals: The One-Trade Retirement Blueprint]( How to Make One Type of Trade – Every Month – and Start Making All the Money You Need to Fund Your Retirement. [Click here to learn more.]( [image]( [Rogue Economincs]( Rogue Economics 55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483 [www.rogueeconomics.com]( [Tweet]( [TWITTER]( To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please [add our email address]( to your address book. This editorial email containing advertisements was sent to {EMAIL} because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click [here](. Rogue Economics welcomes your feedback and questions. But please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized advice. To contact Customer Service, call toll free Domestic/International: 1-800-681-1765, Mon–Fri, 9am–7pm ET, or email us [here](mailto:memberservices@rogueeconomics.com). © 2023 Rogue Economics. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution of our content, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Rogue Economics. [Privacy Policy]( | [Terms of Use](