💰 The GOP’s spending test

…and Kaspi’s superapp IPO   SAT flashbacks (Scott Eisen/Getty Images)   [Sponsored by]( Yesterday’s Market Moves   Dow Jones 38,002 (+0.36%) S&P 500 4,850 (+0.22%) Nasdaq 15,360 (+0.32%) Bitcoin $39,792 (-4.24%) Dow Jones 38,002 (+0.36%) S&P 500 4,850 (+0.22%) Nasdaq 15,360 (+0.32%) Bitcoin $39,792 (-4.24%) Hey Snackers, The “Lords of Dogtown” movie is playing out in real life: a group of California skateboarders is draining and [cleaning]( pools for free — as long as they can skate in them. US stocks reached fresh highs, extending Friday’s historic rally. The Dow crossed 38K for the first time. Checking in on the J. Powell crystal ball: traders forecast a 40% chance of a March rate cut, down from 80% a week ago. Ballot The New Hampshire GOP primary will test the power of big money in politics And then there were two… Today is primary day in New Hampshire and, following Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ exit, it’s a [showdown]( between deep-pocketed former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former President Trump. As the $78M GOP ad spend in the state shows, New Hampshire’s primary is huge: the winner there has become the GOP nominee in the past three election cycles (2008, ’12, and ’16). As voting began, polling suggested that the GOP nom is likely Trump’s for the taking, after his record win in Iowa. - Serious spending: Haley’s campaign and supporters are outspending Trump in the overall GOP primary by a wide margin. So far, Haley’s campaign and outside groups have spent nearly $70M on ads, while the Trump campaign and supporters have spent almost $40M. - After the count: A loss in New Hampshire might not be the end for Haley. South Carolina (her home state) is another early-voting hub, and billionaire supporters like investor Stanley Druckenmiller and [Home Depot]( cofounder Ken Langone still have a Haley mega-fundraiser on the books. 2024 winner: ad sellers… This election cycle’s ad spending is projected to hit a record $10B+, and the pricey Republican race seems to validate those expectations. In the first 19 days of this month alone, GOP spending reached $275M. Across the aisle, the Biden campaign and outside groups are stockpiling cash: the president’s reelection committee raised ~$100M last quarter (likely way more than his rivals did), and a top outside group supporting him pulled in $208M last year. THE TAKEAWAY In politics, money isn’t everything… If it were, Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton would be former presidents. Nikki Haley’s big-biz backing (including from [JPMorgan Chase]( CEO Jamie Dimon and LinkedIn cofounder Reid Hoffman) hasn’t been enough to overcome GOP frontrunner Trump. Now some are questioning whether a shift in media-consumption habits (think: more streaming, less cable) have upended the political ad biz. Iowa video and TV ads reached just 42% of the state’s caucus voters, despite $124M in spending. Sponsored by Secret Stock Alerts 🚨 Hot stock tips Wall Street smarts… When it comes to investing, the most valuable tool is knowledge. For traders who don’t have the time to spend hours analyzing the market, the seasoned [Secret Stock Alerts]( team scans the market for you to discover stocks potentially poised to pop, and delivers these stock tips straight to your phone. Essential info… [Secret Stock Alerts]( focus on under-the-radar, growth-oriented stocks in highly lucrative sectors to better position you to potentially get in on the ground floor before a big move. Best of all, there’s no commitment and no cost. [Sign up now for free mobile alerts.*]( SUPERIPO Investors’ lukewarm response to Kaspi’s $1B IPO may be a chilly sign for public listings Astana goes Wall Street… Kazakhstani super app [Kaspi.kz]( had the [biggest IPO]( since [Birkenstock]( raising $1B and notching a $17.5B market cap at its Nasdaq debut. It’s the third-largest company to go public since 2020, behind chip designer [Arm]( and J&J spinoff [Kenvue](. Still, Kaspi shares debuted last week at just 0.5% above their IPO price and have fallen since. - All in one: The fintech giant is Kazakhstan’s take on the “super app,” similar to China’s WeChat and Indonesia’s Gojek. It serves both consumers and merchants, with services like banking, BNPL lending, online grocery shopping, and tax filing. - Fun facts: Kaspi, only the second company from Kazakhstan to debut on a major US exchange, said it has 13.5M customers and notched $2.7M in revenue last year. It previously went public on three other stock exchanges, including London’s. Initial public apathy?… US stock indexes notched record highs yesterday, but investors don’t seem as bullish on IPOs after two years of sluggish activity. FYI: last year only 154 companies IPO’d on US exchanges, a 15% drop from 2022 and an 85% plunge from 2021’s record of 1K+. With interest rates expected to drop this year, investors are looking for signs that the new listing market will revive, though recent debuts like Birkenstock have been lackluster. THE TAKEAWAY Even “risk on” investors need a nudge… Record-high stock prices, fueled by a tech rally, suggest the market is accepting more risk. Still, to get the IPO market humming, experts think big names need to start listing. And rumors abound of anticipated IPOs that would fit that bill (think: Shein is said to be targeting up to a $90B valuation). But if those companies end up stumbling out of the gate, it could pump the brakes on other would-be listers’ plans. What else we're Snackin' - [Brokeing]( The FAA advised airlines to inspect 380 [Boeing]( planes that share door-plug designs with the 737 Max, which had a mid-flight blowout. [United]( already predicting a Q1 loss, citing Boeing groundings. - [Mixed]( 160K+ [Apple]( Vision Pro headsets sold out in minutes after going on presale last week. Analysts say demand could cool from here after diehard techies snapped up the first batch of $3.5K gadgets. - [Fail]( [Gilead]( shares sank 11% after its Trodelvy lung-cancer drug failed to improve survival rates in trials. It’s a major setback for the pharma giant, which has spent billions to become a leader in cancer treatments. - [Fearvertise]( MIT researchers said that replacing workers with AI would generally cost more than just paying a human to do the job. Execs and investors behind ChatGPT have suggested AI could ax entire professions. - [Hack]( [Microsoft]( said the same Russian hackers behind the infamous 2020 [SolarWinds]( cyberattack breached its email servers in November, accessing accounts of top execs and cybersecurity and legal staff. 🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up [here](. Snack Fact Of the Day “Better Call Saul” set the record for most losses at the Emmy Awards [Read more]( Tuesday - Voting day for New Hampshire presidential primary - Earnings expected from Netflix, Verizon, Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed, 3M, and GE Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Apple and Microsoft *Advertiser’s disclosure: Secret Stock Alerts provides information about the stock market and other investments. Secret Stock Alerts does not provide investment advice and should not be used as a replacement for investment advice from a qualified professional. 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