👻 Spooky Treasury yields

…and traffic in the Panama Canal   Watching the yield rise like (Win McNamee/Getty Images)   [Sponsored by]( Yesterday’s Market Moves   Dow Jones 34,289 (-0.51%) S&P 500 4,388 (-0.28%) Nasdaq 13,506 (+0.06%) Bitcoin $25,664 (-1.72%) Dow Jones 34,289 (-0.51%) S&P 500 4,388 (-0.28%) Nasdaq 13,506 (+0.06%) Bitcoin $25,664 (-1.72%) Hey Snackers, Spooky szn is coming early: [Home Depot]( viral $300, 12-foot skeleton has already [sold out]( online after its third and final digital restock of the year. Guess it’s a bone-a-fide hit. Stocks barely budged yesterday, but bank shares retreated after regional names like [Comerica]( and [KeyCorp]( got credit-rating downgrades (analysts said others could follow). 10-YR US Treasury yields soar and put a damper on stocks, as investors expect high rates The name’s Bond… T-Bond. The 10-year Treasury yield (basically: the interest rate the US government pays to borrow money) rose to 4.35% this week — the [highest]( in 16 years. Why have Uncle Sam’s payouts on IOUs been getting fatter? Largely because investors expect that the Fed may keep rates higher for longer. When folks expect higher rates, the price of existing bonds tend to fall (investors sell “old” bonds, expecting that new issues of those same bonds will pay out at higher rates). When bond prices fall, yields rise. Good “bad” news is pressuring yields… and markets. Recent data suggests the US economy is still booming and defying predictions of a slowdown. Unemployment is near historic lows, inflation is slowing (but is still too high), and wage growth is hot. All this “good” news is making investors worried that the Fed’s economy-cooling work is far from over, which is pushing Treasury yields higher. - US stocks have rallied this summer, but rising yields and higher-rate expectations can rain on market parades. Historically, rising Treasury yields tend to hurt stock prices. - New math: As returns from low-risk investments (like US Treasury bonds) rise, investors demand higher returns from stocks to justify the changed opportunity cost. THE TAKEAWAY The economy needs to yield… for the central bank to bring rates down. Last week, the Atlanta Fed lifted its prediction for US third-quarter GDP growth. Until the stubbornly strong economy and labor market yield to Fed pressure, rate cuts likely won’t be in the cards. Meanwhile, investors will be closely watching Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at Jackson Hole for any hints about future policy. Sponsored by Masterworks This painting sold for $8 million… and everyday investors profited Thanks to Masterworks, the award winning platform for investing in blue-chip art. How does it work? Simple: Masterworks does all of the heavy lifting, like finding the painting, buying it, storing it, and eventually selling it. [Masterworks]( files each offering with the SEC so that nearly anyone can invest in highly coveted artworks for just a fraction of the price of the entire piece. Then when the painting sells, investors get their share of the net proceeds. Over 800,000 people have already signed up, and shares of every offering are limited, but Snacks Daily readers can skip the waitlist with [this exclusive link]( Maritraffic Cargo ships are stuck in the Panama Canal as extreme weather disrupts the supply chain Your fall haul may be delayed… Over 200 cargo ships are stuck in the Panama Canal, where some have been waiting weeks to cross. Refresher: the Panama Canal is the only major waterway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. About 3% of global trade and 29% of the Pacific’s container trade passes through it. The jam [started]( last month after the canal’s transit authority capped the number of vessels that could cross each day (and how much cargo they could carry) to conserve water. - Drought: A drought has sapped much of the freshwater required by the canal’s unique system of locks that move ships through the canal. - Reroute: Ship owners can lighten their loads or seek alt routes, but it adds thousands of miles to their journeys. Bleak Friday… The gumming-up of the Panama Canal is causing delivery delays and soaring shipping prices, just as carriers were starting to ferry over Black Friday and holiday goods. Analysts say disruptive events like this (recall: the Suez Canal’s Ever Given drama in 2021) show the fragility of the hyper-fast-delivery model consumers are now used to. Climate change is expected to make these weather-related disruptions more frequent. THE TAKEAWAY The weather this year is frightful… The Panama Canal Authority said the drought has “no historical precedence,” partly because this is supposed to be the region’s rainy season. Meanwhile, the Rhine River, a key European shipping route, hit its lowest water level for the year last month. The situation could worsen with the arrival of El Niño, a weather phenomenon that warms the Pacific's surface and often causes extreme weather (including less rainfall in Panama). DEFI(NE) Heard on the Block: “keys” 🎟️ Like a resellable membership to a celeb’s private club… A buzzy crypto app lets users tokenize their X (fka Twitter) presence, selling exclusive access to fans (picture: gated chat rooms) in the form of tradable “[keys]( whose prices fluctuate based on demand. The platform, dubbed Friend.tech, is built on [Coinbase]( [ethereum]( [layer 2]( (Base) and has seen 115K+ users generate $2.8M+ in fees since its invite-only August launch. Big-name early adopters include the NBA’s Grayson Allen and YouTuber FaZe Banks, suggesting Friend.tech might gain traction outside crypto-only circles. What else we're Snackin' - [Deal]( Unionized [UPS]( workers voted to ratify a new Teamsters-negotiated contract. The deal’s proposed pay raises saw interest in UPS jobs spike, with [Indeed]( reporting a 50% jump in searches for the company. - [Replay]( [Microsoft]( revised its $69B takeover bid for [Activision Blizzard]( to try to appease UK regulators. Shares of Ubisoft, which would acquire cloud rights to Activision games in the new deal, climbed 9%. - [Retail]( [Dick’s]( cut its full-year outlook after reporting a 23% profit plunge it blamed on inventory glut and increased theft. [Macy’s]( saw a sales dip and pointed to a growing # of late payments — a consumer-spending warning sign. - [Uptick]( Since June, US Covid hospitalizations have surged by two-thirds (hitting 10K) as a new variant, Eris, has risen to dominance. Updated boosters, still weeks away, are expected to be effective against Eris. - [Chipper]( Arm, [SoftBank]( semiconductor biz, filed for what’s expected to be one of the largest IPOs in years. The public offering comes 18 months after the FTC squashed [Nvidia]( attempt to buy Arm for $40B. 🍪 Thanks for Snacking with us! Want to share the Snacks? Invite your friends to sign up [here](. Snack Fact Of the Day To switch jobs, US workers on average want a salary offer of at least $78K/year [Read more]( Wednesday - Earnings expected from Nvidia, Peloton, Kohl’s, Foot Locker, Williams-Sonoma, Bath & Body Works, and Abercrombie & Fitch Authors of this Snacks own ethereum and shares of: Microsoft and Nvidia *Advertiser’s disclosure: See important disclosures at [masterworks.com/cd](. 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