🐌 The dreaded S-word

…and Netflix angles for its first best-picture Oscar [Disclosures](   Protesting rising food prices in 1973, during a time of “stagflation” in the US Credit: [Keystone/Getty Images]   Last Week’s Market Moves   Dow Jones 34,755 (+5.50%) S&P 500 4,463 (+6.16%) Nasdaq 13,894 (+2.05%) Bitcoin $41,791 (+7.82%) Dow Jones 34,755 (+5.50%) S&P 500 4,463 (+6.16%) Nasdaq 13,894 (+2.05%) Bitcoin $41,791 (+7.82%) Hey Snackers, More than [3M]( Ukrainians have fled their country, mostly to neighboring nations, as Russia’s war on Ukraine continues. The devastating humanitarian costs have [called attention]( to refugee crises around the world. Stocks jumped 5% last week for the market’s biggest weekly gain in more than a year, as investors seemed comfortable with the Fed’s first rate hike since 2018. On that note… Want to start getting Snacks daily? Or prefer to unsubscribe? Manage your subscription preferences [here](. Slug Some economists are worried about “stagflation” — and it’s bringing on ’70s-era déjà vu to the market When you blink and gas is $5... Your move, J-Pow. Two months ago, the Fed thought conditions were ripe for hiking interest rates to fight inflation: Covid in retreat, a strong labor market, and a rebounding economy. Then Russia invaded Ukraine. - Surge: Sanctions against Russia have sent the prices of commodities like oil and wheat soaring. - Change of plans: Last week, the Fed hiked rates by a quarter point, half of what some expected pre-war. - Soft landing: The Fed’s still worried about inflation and signaled six more hikes this year. But it’s also worried rapid hikes could slow growth. A ’70s economic monster could return… its name: stagflation (aka inflation + stagnant growth). Typically, inflation and recessions don’t happen simultaneously. But when they do, profits can shrink, assets like stocks can tumble, and workers can lose jobs. When stagflation last reared its head in the 1970s after an oil shock, economists weren’t sure what to do and markets slumped for a decade. Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker intervened by raising rates to historic levels, which led to a painful recession. - Echoes: The war keeps pushing oil higher, and since it still fuels the world, that could contribute to a recession. - Outlook: [Goldman Sachs]( [estimates]( that the odds of a US recession are as high as 35%, and it’s already [cut]( its growth forecast for this year. - Pocketbooks: Higher rates = higher borrowing costs for consumers. E.g.: the rate on a 30-year mortgage just ticked above 4% for the first time since 2019. - Limits: While rate hikes can curb inflation, they can’t [fix]( geopolitical jolts. THE TAKEAWAY The Fed faces a delicate balancing act… Powell’s job is to tame inflation, but not so much that it slams the brakes on growth. The US has been experiencing “boomflation”: inflation that’s bearable because wages have been rising and employment is high. But now the shadow of stagflation is creeping in — especially in Europe, because of its dependence on Russian energy. And in a globalized economy, struggles in one country can quickly become another’s. Zoom Out Stories we’re watching... Late fees... After a slew of Western sanctions, Russia’s hurtling toward default as it struggles to pay off foreign debts in USD. Moscow said it [paid]( $117M due in interest last week, avoiding its first default since 1998. But it’s unclear whether Russia will make its $2B payment in April. Experts [say]( a default likely won’t drag down global markets as it did in ’98, since banks have reduced Russian exposure. Still, [Russia’s central bank]( says sanctions will cripple the country’s economy. Russian-linked entities [owe]( international banks $121B. The golden honor… This could be the year [Netflix]( breaks its Oscar curse. The streamer’s favored to nab its first best-picture trophy on Sunday for “The Power of the Dog.” A win for the Flix would be a milestone for the Oscars, which have been slow to recognize streamer-made films in top categories. Another scoreboard to watch: ratings. Last year’s Oscars drew 10.4M viewers — 60% fewer than a year earlier (and 80% fewer from 1998’s high). ABC paid $1B in 2016 for rights to the Oscars, which now get a quarter of the viewers of NFL playoff games. Events Coming up this week... Checking the “LOL” tab... while waiting for [BuzzFeed’s]( first earnings. The 16-year-old digi-media pioneer has evolved from a cat-meme extraordinaire to a Pulitzer winner. But its shares have plunged by half since its December SPAC IPO, as investors doubt the profitability of virality. The company did [report]( a 51% jump in annual revenue ahead of its listing. BuzzFeed is still reliant on third-party sites like [Twitter]( and YouTube for more than two thirds of its audience. We'll see if that dependence has eased when BuzzFeed reports Tuesday. China’s shutdown... means your iPhone might be [delayed](. A week ago China locked down Shenzhen. The city is home to [Tencent]( and [ships]( 90% of China’s exports from [Apple]( supplier Foxconn and others, and the shutdown’s weighing on an already strained global supply chain. US-listed Chinese stocks then took their worst [tumble]( since 2008 as investors worried about China’s “zero Covid” strategy and Beijing’s Moscow ties. We’ll see whether Chinese businesses took a hit when US-listed [Tencent Music]( [PetroChina]( [China Life Insurance]( [Nio]( and [China Petroleum]( report this week. ICYMI Last week's highlights... - [Gap]( Women earn 82 cents on the dollar compared to men. Now, in a push for transparency, states from Colorado to Connecticut are passing laws that make employers include pay ranges in job postings. - [Sun]( Hold your clocks: The Senate unanimously passed a bill to make daylight-saving time permanent. While the vast majority of Americans want a single time system, there’s still [disagreement]( over which one. - [House]( 1900s “company towns” are having a comeback. Resorts like [Vail]( where rents [spiked]( 20% during the pandemic, are building housing for workers to make living more affordable in WFH hotspots. What else we're Snackin' - [Build]( Building credit is key to everything from getting a car loan to a mortgage, but using credit can be daunting. Watch a money mentor share tips on how to use credit to help reach financial goals. - [Sip]( [Oatly]( has milked the alternative-drink trend, tasting a [$10B IPO]( last May. But the dairy-free darling’s manufacturing has been over budget and under producing, costing the company key customers like [Starbucks](. - [Protect]( California is creating the country’s’ first “privacy police,” an agency tasked with controlling how titans like [Google]( [Facebook]( and [Amazon]( use data. Their tools: a $10M budget and a strict privacy law. 🍪 Want to start Snacking daily? Sign up [here]( for our daily market newsletter. The Snacks Daily Podcast The latest pod trend: shows for kids. Spotify, Warner Bros, Netflix, Sony, and Amazon are all working on kids podcasts as parents try to minimize screen time. [Tune in]( to hear how media companies are now targeting kids. Snack Fact Of the Day [Netflix has brought back “Servant of the People,” a fictional show starring former actor and current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, for US viewers after airing it from 2017 to 2021]( This Week - Monday: Earnings expected from Nike and Tencent Music - Tuesday: Earnings expected from Adobe, Poshmark, and BuzzFeed - Wednesday: Earnings expected from Cintas, General Mills, Trip.com, KB Home, Jefferies Financial, HB Fuller, and Winnebago - Thursday: Weekly jobless claims. March Madness: Sweet 16 round begins. Earnings expected from PetroChina, China Life Insurance, Nio, Darden Restaurants, Mister Car Wash, and Movado - Friday: Earnings expected from China Petroleum - The weekend: The Oscars air Sunday Authors of this Snacks own shares of Amazon, Netflix, Spotify, Google, Starbucks, and Apple ID: 2088127 Robinhood Snacks newsletters and podcasts reflect the opinions of only the authors who are associated persons of Robinhood Financial LLC (Member [SIPC]( and do not reflect the views of Robinhood Markets, Inc. or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. They are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any security, digital asset (cryptocurrency, etc) in any account. They are also not research reports and are not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. 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