Market Milestones: The Ol' Gap & Crap

[Image] Good morning , The bulls lost a few leaders on Thursday with NVDA, GOOGL, META and TSLA all selling off. However, the DIA was there to pick up the slack in a ferocious manner. CRM led the charge, gapping up 9.36% on Thursday while UNH and BA also had seriously strong days. The DIA is at a new 2023 high and is just 2.73% away from a new all-time high! The SPY and the QQQ are approximately 5% away from their all-time highs. Meanwhile, the IWM is over 36% away from its all-time high and the RSP is over 11% away from its all-time high. The DIA’s performance is a good signal for some improvement of market breadth but there is still a very long way to go before this market is healthy. DIA [Image]( QQQ [Image]( If AAPL, MSFT & AMZN break down below Thursday's low, watch for selling to intensify. The market still desperately needs big tech to carry it higher. Even if selling intensifies in the broad market, it is likely to retest the November move, find support and push higher once again. As long as the 2023 October low holds, higher highs are to be expected and the trend will remain bullish. Realistically, the bulls should hold the $440-$433 support on SPY. Wait, hold up. Didn’t the market make a meaningful low last October too? If only there was [a chart]( sent out well over a dozen times predicting this October low and subsequent bounce. SPY [Image]( [Image] One signal indicating a larger retest on the horizon is Wednesday’s candle on SPY. On Wednesday morning the SPY gapped up to a new high and sold off the majority of the day. This reversal pattern is sometimes referred to as a gap and crap. I like to call it a G&C Reversal because it makes me sound way more sophisticated. And let’s face it, for a guy who has not put on a shirt or shoes in several days, I am all about sophistication. Since the SPY’s all-time high, which also culminated with a prime G&C Reversal, there have been 14 G&C Reversals with more than 1 day of selling that followed before a new high was made. The very shallowest of these pullbacks was 2.6% which would take SPY back to $446.00 at a minimum. On November 9th, 2023, the bears tried to G&C this market hard and were absolutely blown out the very next day. That is always possible, but the odds and the charts are favoring a move lower at this point in time. G&C Reversal [Image]( [Image] The ETF of the Week is Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT). Argentina just elected a new president and all stocks related to Argentina flew on the news. If you are a member of [The Traders Plan]( you already saw us review Argentinian stocks like YPF, PAM, GGAL and BMA the day after the big gap. If you missed the most recent move, don’t FOMO in now. Instead start formulating a plan on how to trade going forward. ARGT could be traded aggressively with a breakout entry since it has moved sideways for four days at the time of this writing. However, a better risk-reward entry would be entering long around $48.00-$47.00, with protective measures set around the $46.00 level. If the $46.00 level is broken, it is likely to fill a decent part of the Presidential Gap, putting the next possible buy zone in the $44.00-$41.00 region. RSP [Image]( Thanks for spending part of your Friday morning with me. Have a great weekend and I will talk to you next week. Strive On, Yates Craig, RLT & TPN Market Analyst Disclosure: You are responsible for your own trading decisions. ALWAYS, do your own research before investing in any of the above securities. This is not a solicitation to buy/sell ETFs or securities. NEVER invest money in ETFs or stocks that you can't afford to lose. You can lose all of your capital by trading any securities mentioned. These ETFs/securities are very volatile and gain and lose value quickly. We reserve the right to freely trade in any mentioned ETFs or securities. We are not compensated by any mentioned companies. We trade ETFs and securities based on our opinion of intrinsic/possible future value only. We are not registered investment advisors, so always do your own research before buying any securities. Unable to view? Read it [online]( If you no longer wish to receive mail from us, you can [unsubscribe]( Sent from: Real Life Trading in Nashville TN 37221