Market Milestones: Pullback is Nigh

[Image] The first week of August started off with a bang All through the markets the downgrade rang Fitch was not playing, took an A from our debt All the bull reeled as they lost on their bet Bulls only hope now, was the man called Tim Apple iPhone revenue keeps falling like the Tower of Babel Double top on the QQQ and reversal on SPY It seems the long-awaited pullback is nigh SPY [Image]( QQQ [Image]( The last time we spoke, the QQQ and SPY just put in a pretty gnarly bearish engulfing candle, possibly starting the bigger retest we have been waiting for. Admittedly the bulls gave a solid effort, clawing back gains on Friday and early this week but eventually were defeated by the Fitch slap hear round the world. The Fitch downgrade on the US debt has [TLT]( trading just 3% away from 2022 lows with yields near the high. If you are looking to lock in some 5% yields on 10-year bonds, you just might get your wish in the coming months. AAPL reported earnings Thursday after market close. Seeing as AAPL is the largest company in the world and the largest component of the QQQ and SPY, it is arguably the most important earnings in the market. Prior to this earnings report, AAPL had gained 60% since the beginning of January, printed 7 bullish monthly candles in a row and hadn’t hit the 50DEMA since the start of March. What we are getting at is that AAPL was/is extended. It needed to drop a NVDA style earnings report in order to gap up and keep running bullish. Instead, they only made 81.8 billion dollars last quarter. I know, were they even trying you ask? I joke, but even though AAPL slightly beat analysist estimates on overall revenue and EPS, their year over year numbers saw a decline and most importantly their iPhone revenue missed estimates and declined year over year. AAPL [Image]( The mega cap tech names are priced for perfection and any wobble or hint of uncertainty about the future will lead to profit taking. AAPL is gapping down and may open under the July monthly hammer candle, which would be a pretty solid reversal at an all-time high. It is very possible for AAPL to retest into the $160s before finding solid support. Speaking of selling off, MSFT is holding on to its current support by the skin of its teeth. Weird that MSFT has teeth at all, and even more alarming is all the skin on them. Wouldn’t teeth with skin just be bones? I feel the skinlessness is what makes them teeth and not bones but hey, I am not a doctor. Anyway, what were we talking about? If MSFT breaks the $325 support, $313 and the low $290s are the next areas of solid support. If both AAPL and MSFT break down, the market will likely follow suit with a solid pullback. Considering the absolutely mammoth bullish strength that came in since March, the pullback will likely be buyable as the bulls will be out to defend their previous buys. There will also be heaps of buyers who missed the summer move and are eager to buy their favorite names any discount possible. MSFT [Image]( ETF of the Week The ETF of the week this week is going to be on the aforementioned iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). The trend has been bearish since its all-time high in 2022. Since then it has been on a cascading waterfall lower and looks to be hunting for a new low. Downside targets would be $92.00 and $88.00. If TLT can bounce in the next week or two, that could give the opportunity for a limit sell entry and decent risk reward down to the lows. TLT [Image]( Enjoy your weekend, Yates Craig, RLT & TPN Market Analyst Disclosure: You are responsible for your own trading decisions. ALWAYS, do your own research before investing in any of the above securities. This is not a solicitation to buy/sell ETFs or securities. NEVER invest money in ETFs or stocks that you can't afford to lose. You can lose all of your capital by trading any securities mentioned. These ETFs/securities are very volatile and gain and lose value quickly. We reserve the right to freely trade in any mentioned ETFs or securities. We are not compensated by any mentioned companies. We trade ETFs and securities based on our opinion of intrinsic/possible future value only. We are not registered investment advisors, so always do your own research before buying any securities. Unable to view? Read it [online]( If you no longer wish to receive mail from us, you can [unsubscribe]( Sent from: Real Life Trading in Nashville TN 37221