Market Milestones: Macro, Inflation & Extinction

[Image] Good morning ! Welcome to another episode of Market Milestones, your go-to newsletter for staying on top of market trends. The bulls have once again regained control after a tumultuous week of selling. By tumultuous I mean the SPY fell 2.6% from its most recent high before the dip buyers gobbled up that "massive" discount at the very first support line they could find. That kind of dippage has not been seen in a mighty long while, two months to be exact. I suppose we needed a reminder that the market actually can go down, although not for more than a week it would seem. The SPY appears poised for another higher high, especially if it can keep pushing through the gap fill at $439.00 without getting rejected. That is the last key resistance before we break higher and put $450.00 in our sights. On the chart below you can see the two counts that I am currently tracking on the SPY. Either we are in a B wave, ready to make another move lower to the $420 level, or we just completed a wave 4 and the 5th wave started this Tuesday. Either way, it looks like the dips for the next few months are going to be buyable, barring some kind of cataclysmic news event. SPY Daily Chart [Image]( Macro, Inflation & Extinction I don't want to intentionally bore everyone to death, so instead I will do it unintentionally. On the macro level the Fed reiterated that at least two more rate hikes are coming this year, which means they are far from a pivot. They restated their new motto “higher for longer” saying that rates will remain elevated through 2024. This makes sense considering that Core CPI has remained above 5% for over a year and is refusing to go lower. The ongoing tightening by the Fed will continue to put financial pressure on companies, especially non-profitable ones, due to high borrowing costs. The Fed knows this and that is the whole point. With a very resilient labor market, consumer spending and confidence still high, the stock market grinding higher, and stronger than expected GDP numbers, a recession may be needed to once and for all tame this inflation. The above paragraph sums up the reason that so many investors and traders are rushing into big tech. Well, that as well as the fact that big tech will soon realize artificial super intelligence creating the singularity, a runaway chain reaction of AI self-improvement that irreversibly and inconceivably alters human civilization as we know it thus dissolving the need for any other company besides these few giants, making them 100% of the QQQ instead of just 50%. But that would be temporary because eventually our AI overloads would free us from the stock market, the concept of money, and eventually our pathetic fleshy little lives. I’m kidding…probably. If investors can see that the future consumer may be weaker, and that borrowing will continue to get more and more expensive, the “safe” investment would be companies with huge cash reserves, massive size and power to invest in themselves and companies who rely mostly on enterprise instead of the consumer. This would sum of Skynet Seven perfectly. ETF of the Week Our ETF of the week this week is Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT). ARGT put in its low in July of 2022 and has been on a rampage ever since, climbing over 100% in that time. The top holding of ARGT at 20% of the fund, is a name you have probably heard of before, Mercadolibre Inc (MELI). MELI’s chart looks like it could break down, possibly pulling back 10-12 percent. If this happens it could allow ARGT to pull back into its strong support level around $41.50. If you are wanting long exposure in Argentina via this ETF, that would be a great level to start looking for a long. ARGT [Image]( Enjoy your weekend, Yates Craig, RLT & TPN Market Analyst Disclosure: You are responsible for your own trading decisions. ALWAYS, do your own research before investing in any of the above securities. This is not a solicitation to buy/sell ETFs or securities. NEVER invest money in ETFs or stocks that you can't afford to lose. You can lose all of your capital by trading any securities mentioned. These ETFs/securities are very volatile and gain and lose value quickly. We reserve the right to freely trade in any mentioned ETFs or securities. We are not compensated by any mentioned companies. We trade ETFs and securities based on our opinion of intrinsic/possible future value only. We are not registered investment advisors, so always do your own research before buying any securities. Unable to view? Read it [online]( If you no longer wish to receive mail from us, you can [unsubscribe]( Sent from: Real Life Trading in Nashville TN 37221