Market Milestones: Floating Higher

[Image] Good morning ! Hello my fellow traders! In this week's Real Life Trading Market Milestone update, let's talk about how the market just keeps on floating higher. Lately, I've been thinking about an analogy that likens the stock market to a balloon. Not the kind that you blow up and give to a kid to kick and hit around, but more like helium or hot air balloons. Did you know there are professional "Balloon Keep Up" leagues where adults play games against each other? Yeah, me neither, but apparently, they have crowds, sponsors, helmets and even World Cups! So, if being a pro trader doesn't work out, there's always pro 'Balloon Keep Up' player as plan B. Anyway, back to the point. The analogy goes something like this: the market is like a balloon that will continue to rise unless there are counter forces that bring it down, such as news, recessions, earnings reports, wars, and other factors that cause market drops. This analogy reminds us that the overall trajectory of the market is up. Even during challenging times, the market "wants" to keep rising. In fact, when there's a recession, inflation, or war looming, the market has often priced these factors in and keeps churning higher. In this market, even bad news can be good news, as a weak economy could mean a Federal Reserve pivot, which could be a bullish catalyst for the market. Despite a macro picture that's full of sharp objects and heavy chains trying to take down our balloon, the market has stayed resilient and continues to float higher. We've been bobbing sideways for nearly a year, but since October, we've been making higher highs and higher lows. Wednesday's strong bullish close suggests that the markets may head for another high, possibly filling the gap at $421 on SPY. This lines up well with our 12345 count off of the March 13th low. However, we're entering earnings season, and banks are starting to report this week. It'll be interesting to see if there are any major surprises that could bring our balloon crashing down. [Image]( [Image]( Our ETF of the week this week is VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH). Over the past few weeks SMH has shown some relative weakness compared to the overall market. It had a bearish retest gap on April 5th that filled and continued lower on April 11th. It currently has 3 bullish candles sitting right on top of a pretty strong support zone. If that level gets taken out, bulls will be trapped. This is a counter trend trade as semiconductors have been super-hot recently. However, if they are overheated and extended, this quick short could be a great way to capitalize on any downside that comes in. The dip on semiconductors should be very buyable, but why not try to make some money on the way down? [Image]( Enjoy your weekend, Yates Craig, RLT & TPN Market Analyst Disclosure: You are responsible for your own trading decisions. ALWAYS, do your own research before investing in any of the above securities. This is not a solicitation to buy/sell ETFs or securities. NEVER invest money in ETFs or stocks that you can't afford to lose. You can lose all of your capital by trading any securities mentioned. These ETFs/securities are very volatile and gain and lose value quickly. We reserve the right to freely trade in any mentioned ETFs or securities. We are not compensated by any mentioned companies. We trade ETFs and securities based on our opinion of intrinsic/possible future value only. We are not registered investment advisors, so always do your own research before buying any securities. Unable to view? Read it [online]( If you no longer wish to receive mail from us, you can [unsubscribe]( Sent from: Real Life Trading in Nashville TN 37221