Market Milestones: Unrelenting Bull

[Image] Happy Friday , Since the singular selling candle last Thursday, the SPY has chopped around and moved sideways as the bulls refuse to give an inch to the bears. Tech saw a nice bounce on Thursday as AAPL, NVDA, and the semiconductors led the charge higher. AAPL recently traded into a strong support level and had some very apparent bullish divergence. Anyone buying off the 100WSMA missed getting filled by $1.30 and is feeling big-time sad after Thursday’s candle. The old support/new resistance at $180.00 is going to be a critical level for AAPL. Watch for AAPL to consolidate at that resistance and have some trouble moving higher between $180.00-$185.00. A bullish push through those levels will be very strong for AAPL and will put a new all-time high as the next realistic target. AAPL [Image]( The semiconductors have been leaders in this 5-month bull rampage, but they have recently been stuck in a range below their all-time highs. If we look at SMH, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, we can see that it has been trading sideways for the past 22 days. Whichever direction this consolidation breaks will be important for the market. If SMH breaks down, it will likely be headed to the 100DSMA and the gap fill from 2/21/24. However, a strong close above the April 4th candle and new all-time highs should be around the corner. A strong bullish move from the semiconductors could help push the SPY and QQQ into highs, keeping this remarkable bullish trend alive. SMH [Image]( A very interesting and possibly alarming bullish trend can be seen in long-duration bond yields. Wednesday’s inflation numbers caused the bond market to sell off, and yields to spike. Yields have broken out of the giant ascending triangle they formed in 2024. Higher yields should be bad news for equity markets; however, they completely shrugged off the data as nothing to worry about, at least so far. The chart below shows the 20-year bond yield with the QQQ overlaid in orange. We can see that QQQ bottomed as bond yields topped in late October 2023 when the Fed ostensibly pivoted. We can also see bond yields bottom and trend higher in 2024. During the yield uptrend in 2024, we know that QQQ and SPY were both churning and burning higher at a record pace. This divergence, like the RSI divergence on SPY and QQQ, seems like a warning sign of bearish moves to come. However, it has gone on longer than expected and can continue to go on for longer than anyone can anticipate. After all, as John Maynard Keynes said, “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” 20 Year Bond Yields & QQQ [Image]( Energy also broke out of a massive ascending triangle, and crude futures look like they have room to run. If energy continues higher, that will drive inflation numbers up and squeeze the Fed even harder between a rock and a hard place. XLE [Image]( There are all kinds of crazy and conflicting data points at the macro level right now. This is why we use charts and technical analysis at Real Life Trading. The chart patterns helped us get very bullish on silver, gold, bitcoin, and oil over the last few months, and the macro and economic data played a secondary role in boosting that conviction. Many charts right now are unrelentingly bullish, especially in tech. Even though SPY set up a [beautiful short]( that we shared last week, it probably won’t work because it is countertrend in one of the strongest bull markets in SPY’s history. Buyers want in, and apparently a 2.4% discount is good enough. We will keep on hoping, wishing, and dreaming of a real pullback for yet another week. Join us next week for an exciting and monumental Market Milestones on the all-important bitcoin halving. Strive On, Yates Craig, RLT Market Analyst [support@RLTNewsletter.com](mailto:support@rltnewsletter.com) Disclaimer: Trading involves inherent liabilities and risks. By accessing this newsletter, you acknowledge and understand the associated risks with trading and investing. This newsletter or email does not serve as a solicitation to buy or sell any security, and its content should not be construed as financial advice. The trades, analyses, and results presented are for entertainment and educational purposes only. These materials do not substitute professional advice from a qualified individual, firm, or corporation. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and simulated performance results have inherent limitations. Readers are strongly urged to consult a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any trading or investment decisions. Each individual's financial situation is unique, requiring personalized advice. 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