Nerdwallet, Moderna, and Food Prices

November 5, 2021 Nerdwallet, Moderna, and Food Prices Good morning traders, Welcome back to The Daily Setup. Markets were mixed yesterday. Here's what's on the docket today: - Nerdwallet IPOs - Food prices are near record highs - Peloton falls sharply after reporting earnings So let's have a cup of joe, act busy for a bit, and then ride into the weekend. Jeff Revenge of the Nerdwallet BIGGEST MOVER Revenge of the Nerds Thursday was a big day for Lewis, Gilbert, Poindexter and the rest of the nerds, as NerdWallet (NRDS) [began trading]( on its first day in the public market. NRDS ended the day up 57.2%, and was up as much as 90% midday. The stock was halted numerous times during trading, so it's safe to say that Thursday was the biggest nerd party since the 1987 rager at the [Hotel Coral Essex]( in Ft. Lauderdale. - NerdWallet is a digital platform focused on personal finance, and provides consumers with educational information about products such as loans, credit cards, mortgages, etc. Essentially an affiliate marketing company. - The IPO price was $18 and NRDS closed at $28.30, so perhaps the underwriters left some money on the table? - It's frankly still amazing to think that Gilbert from Revenge of the Nerds went on [to be Goose in Top Gun]( just a scant few years later. It may be worth keeping an eye on to see if NRDS trades like a financial name or a technology stock in the coming months. The closest comparison might be LendingTree (TREE) for a reference point… Let's just hope it doesn't wind up like Zillow for the Tri-Lambs sake. You know you done f*cked up, right? -Investors' response to Moderna's earnings report Shares of Moderna (MRNA) nose-dived in Thursday's trading session after releasing their fiscal Q3 earnings report before the opening bell. The stock opened the day down 14.5%, and continued to fall during trading to close down 17.89%. - [Q3 EPS]( came in at $7.70/share on revenue of $4.97B, compared to analysts' expectations of $9.05/share on $6.21B in revenue. I'm no genius, but I'm pretty sure missing revenue by more than $1B is a big deal. - The company projected vaccine sales for the year at $15B-$18B, which is down from their previous projection of $20B. Sales in 2022 are expected to be in the $17B-$22B range. - In comparison, Pfizer said that it expects sales of its Covid vaccine to be $36B in 2021 and $29B in 2022, further cementing their alpha status in the Covid vaccine marketplace. - The company has been prioritizing vaccine deliveries to low income countries via [Covax](, which is the United Nations backed effort to share Covid vaccines. See kids, sharing isn't always caring. While the news is definitely not good, Moderna is still a key player in the Covid vaccine arena. The company is waiting on approval from the FDA regarding their shot for children aged 5-11 years old, which the company is hoping will be authorized in January. They have also signed $17B in purchase agreements for their boosters in 2022. Keep MRNA in your watchlist to see if the stock starts to consolidate and build a base at this new price level. I'll just have water, thanks [Fluffy Friends GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY]( You might as well just start eating your paycheck, because global food prices are the highest they've been [since 2011](. The U.S. has seen food price inflation of 5-6% in 2021, which is [triple]( the normal rate for a year. This is thanks in large part to a national labor shortage, which has pushed stores to raise wages and have consumers foot the bill from price increases. Not to mention the boring old collapse of global supply chains, yaddah yaddah yaddah. - To make things worse, severe weather events like [droughts across the Middle East]( and hurricanes have forced entire nations to rely on imports for grain. This trend is likely to continue in places where desertification will make droughts more frequent. - The global energy crisis has also hit greenhouses in the Netherlands,[the world's second-largest exporter of food by value](, causing blackouts and forcing the nation to scale back on energy consumption. This has further contributed to higher prices for vegetables and fertilizers. Just like inflation, some of these absurdly high prices will hopefully be transitory. As a consumer, you can save money by buying locally to circumvent shipping costs, and by buying more staples like root vegetables that don't have the built-in labor expense of prepared food. On the investment side, buying stock in non-animal protein sources such as beans, soy, and nuts is probably a good idea, as the cost of meat will likely continue to increase as animal feed costs continue to rise. In summary, meat is tasty, yet inefficient. Down, down, down Other News How to Crash a Stationary Bike Peloton (PTON) reported earnings on Thursday and the cycling community hasn't been damaged this badly since Dick Pound (his honest to goodness real name) [and his boys at the World Anti-Doping Association]( showed up to poop in the EPO laced punchbowl. Shares were down 4.3% on Thursday in anticipation of results [and fell 28.3% afterhours](. - PTON lost $1.25 per share vs. expectations of $1.07 on revenue of $805.2M vs. estimates of $810.7M. - The company also cut its forecasts, which analysts always react calmly and rationally to. - Peloton is down 43% YTD, and tomorrow looks to continue that trend. Maybe the company will cut prices on its exercise bikes so I can buy one for my girlfriend and she can finally smile at me. Gotta give Credit Suisse where Credit is due Embattled Swiss bank Credit Suisse (CS) reported its earnings Thursday and announced that it will be exiting its prime brokerage business. This will allow the bank to focus on its core business segments, which include private banking, wealth management, and [defrauding investors about]( *checks notes* tuna fishing. - In dropping their prime brokerage business, the company is severing ties with hedge funds, thus aiming to prevent future scandals and regulatory penalties like [the implosion of Archegos Capital Management.]( - Q3 net income fell 21% from the year prior thanks in large part [to the 564M in litigation costs it paid out]( for the Mozambique and Greensill Capital shenanigans. Revenue of 5.4B Swiss francs was higher than Q3 2020's 5.2B. - Q3 net income of 434M Swiss francs beat estimates of 333.8M Swiss francs, but unfortunately there's no way to translate that into real currency. - Shares of CS closed the day down [4.7% at $10.28.]( Well that did not go well Penn National Gaming (PENN) [had themselves a Thursday](, falling 21% after reporting Q3 earnings and missing big on profit expectations. It also didn't help that [allegations of sexual misconduct]( were published against Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy. For those not in the know, PENN purchased a large stake in Barstool last February, [valuing the brand at roughly $450M](. - Profit for the quarter was down 40% from a year earlier, which the company blamed Hurricane Ida and ongoing 'rona challenges. - EPS were $0.52 compared to estimates of $0.85, while $1.51B in revenue matched expectations. - The decline knocked $2.5B of Penn National's market cap, so maybe for once the house doesn't always win? 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