Black Friday Watchlist and Trading Tips

[RagingBull Elite]( Dear undefined— Jeff Bishop here, It’s Black Friday, and things are going to look a little different for shoppers today— retailers are extending their deals out across the holidays, so we won't see long lines and stampedes at stores like BestBuy as people fight for the best TV. RagingBull too has a sweet Black Friday deal up and running! With today’s special offer, you can [get Jason Bond’s Rooster Report service for a shockingly low price!]( That said, there are a couple market themes that have been very consistent in the past — low trading volume and an emphasis on retail stocks. According to Dow Jones Market Data, average trading volume has been 2.5B on the Friday after Thanksgiving, whereas average daily trading volume so far in 2020 has been 8.8B. Retail has historically been the best sector from the week before Thanksgiving through the week after. S&P 500 retail stocks made an average 5% return between 2007 and 2017, whereas the S&P as a whole was 3% during that period. But, as with all things that happened in 2020, this year’s Black Friday might have a few tricks up its sleeve... In anticipation of family reunions and tender turkey, it’s easy to let go of the fact we still are in one of the worst years in modern history. A lot of people remain unemployed or furloughed and who knows how many more will join this unfortunate list, shall the second wave keep on… The consumers simply don’t have the extra money to throw around— and those who do will likely prefer to sit on more of it in the face of uncertainty. Here’s what the iconic Gap (GPS), had to say late Tuesday, as it reported a miss on EPS: “The widely-noted recent rise in COVID-19 cases remains a concern, which may impact store traffic.” The company also refused to provide a full year outlook “recognizing the continued high level of uncertainty in the marketplace”. One of premier retailers is so uncertain about the next 3 month that it wouldn’t even provide a ballpark figure estimate. We hope for the best and will surely keep an eye out on names like BestBuy (BBY), Macy’s (M), Target (TGT), Lululemon (LULU). But, we think there are a few unconventional picks that are more worthy of our holiday time and energy: Shutterstock (SSTK): - The content platform is the best friend of every online marketer. As even more of this year’s ads and sales will be online, SSTK stands in a rare category that might benefit from the environment. - Not only that, but the stock itself has been consolidating cleanly at all-time highs. Good online sales numbers might be just what it needs to push higher. - The key level is $70— any sustained move higher is very bullish for the stock. Shopify (SHOP): - Much like Shutterstock, Shopify is yet another online solution provider for the sellers looking to make a buck on Black Friday. - The stock is consolidating close to the highs but has so far failed to push higher. If holiday sales figures are impressive, this will mean a boost for the SHOP. - $1000 is the key level to watch— we’re bullish above it. Airline Stocks: - This will sound counterintuitive, but we do think there might be a surprise element in airlines, prompting solid short-term action. - Just this past Sunday, the TSA registered the single greatest number of daily screenings since the pandemic began— 1,047,934 passed the security checkpoints. - Many airlines stocks remain severely beaten down and any unexpected good news can serve as a great short term catalyst. - Shall any good TSA number come out, it’ll be a great idea to look for intraday dips on any of the following names: American Airlines (AAL): United Airlines (UAL): Spirit Airlines (SAVE): Jason Bond will have his eyes on these stocks today. [Grab Jason’s special Black Friday offer]( and learn how he’s trading his very next high-conviction pick dropping any moment now. 2020 might disappoint those looking to capitalize on retailers, but we’re confident the other holiday theme will stick. Trading volume will be lower in the market today, and it’s something to pay attention to for a couple key reasons. Low volume means there are less buyers and sellers for your shares. It can be harder to get in and out of positions as there is less money circulating around. To compensate for that, one thing that we can implement today is focus on names doing above average volume. A sustainable directional move is more likely in a name trading good volume. A simple Finviz scan for high trading volume can help us find these. Alternatively, if we can [identify where institutional trading is](, it can be much easier to find stocks that can hand us large percentage gains. It doesn’t mean that we can’t deliberately seek out stock with low trading volume though. There are advantages to trading those just as there are disadvantages, but we have to be clear on what they are before we get involved in any position. The disadvantage of trading low volume stocks is this: If you are looking to sell, for example, there will be less traders in the market available to buy back your position. This increases the likelihood of getting stuck in a trade and not being able to get out at the price you want. The advantage of trading low volume stocks, provided that you exercise proper risk management and diligently researched your stock pick, is that you could be ahead of the curve and identify a multibagger, every trader's best case outcome. All in all, volume matters. It’s an essential factor we have to consider when trading, and we’ll be considering it carefully in our trades today. 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