[The beef 675]
[I'm an image]
âVolatility is the only certainty these days.â - Jason
Hey there carnivores,
Markets were up on Tuesday thanks to rebounding retail sales and discussions surrounding a $1T stimulus package.
Today weâre talking about retail sales' big comeback.
Keep raging,
Jeff & Jason
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[I'm an image]
Re-tale of two markets
The Department of Commerce reported that retail sales [rose 17.7%]( in May (the largest jump on record), absolutely destroying the consensus estimate of 8%. Must have been the same economists who botched Mayâs unemployment "estimate"â¦
May's figures were largely driven by consumer's return to clothing stores (+188%) and furniture retailers (+89%). And the huge beat looks even better when you consider the 14.4% drop in retail sales during April.
Pre-market, the Dow was up as much as 900 points following the news... because the only thing investors like more than a beat on estimates is an [8:30 res at Dorsia](.
So, whereâs the bubbly?
In the words of Lee Corso, â[not so fast my friend.](â
The markets ambitious start was interrupted by Jay Powell. Yesterday, the Fed giveth, and today, it taketh away.
J-Poww warned Congress [in his semiannual testimony]( that there is still âsignificant uncertaintyâ as it relates to economic recovery⦠in case his decision to buy individual corporate bonds wasnât proof enough that weâre still pretty f*cked. Specifically, he called out risks for small businesses and outlined a slow economic recovery.
But that wasnât the only bad news. Word from Beijing is that it is raising its Covid-19 response level, closing schools in the capital [as it deals with another outbreak]( of the not-quite-as-novel-anymore coronavirus. Itâs unclear to what extent the virus is spreading throughout the country... because, ya know, it's China.
That news caused the Dow to drop mid-day before closing up 526 points. So, just to recap... after starting out nearly 1k points into positive territory, the Dow was up just 130 points before closing at plus-526. Simply put, the markets were more unpredictable than Elon's twitter fingers today.
The bottom line...
But it looks like Davey Day Trader isn't the only one profiting off of the market's volatility. Those who saw the volatility (and 'rona boi) coming and jumped on the "long VIX" bandwagon are being rewarded for their call that sh*t was about to hit the fan.
In fact, one hedge fund, Formidable Fund has been [handsomely rewarded for its long VIX position.]( It took a risk before the rest of the world took coronavirus seriously and is up 39% this year. How do you like them apples, [Dalio](?
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An Unfair Advantage?
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[I'm an image]
âï¸ Deep cuts only. Hilton [will be cutting]( 2.1k corporate employees, which amounts to 22% of its global corporate workforce. ICYMI, nobody is traveling or staying at hotels because of COVID-19.
In addition to headcount reductions, hours will be reduced, furloughs will be extended for three months, and corporate pay cuts will continue. But it was all worth it, as shares were up 1.02% on the day.
âï¸ Something smells fishy. Bumble Beeâs former CEO Chris Lischewski [has received a prison sentence]( of forty months and a $100k fine for his role in a price-fixing scheme during his time with the company. He was found guilty in December for conspiring to manipulate canned tuna prices.
Bumble Bee admitted to and pleaded guilty to conspiring with Starkist and Chicken of the Sea between 2011 and 2013. This follows the sentencing and decision last month to charge four former executives in the poultry industry as part of a similar price-fixing scandal.
âï¸ Red Robin-hood. Robinhood stole from the rich and gave to the poor... but it seems like Red Robin is going all-in on robbing idiots.
The struggling burger chain (maybe bottomless fries wasn't the best idea after all) [is going to market]( to sell up to $40M of shares in an effort to raise cash. This comes less than one month after Red Robin said it has doubts about its survival and ability to raise enough equity to keep its lender waiver, which is a document that essentially gives [RR more flexibility]( around the use of its credit facility with Wells Fargo.
The company has since pivoted from those claims, announcing on June 10th that it is confident it can secure funding to pay down its loan. Hertz couldn't have done it any better.
âï¸ Thatâs Gucci. Gucciâs holding company, Kering SA, [has named three fresh faces]( to its board of directors. Emma Watson, a star of the 'Harry Potter' franchise, will join Tidjane Thiam, the former CEO of Credit Suisse, and Jean Liu, president of Chinaâs Uber - Didi Chuxing as the freshmen in the boardroom.
[Fun reminder](, Tidjane Thiam âstepped downâ from his position at Credit Suisse after it came out that his COO ordered a private investigation of two former executives, who jumped ship to work elsewhere. Iqbal Khan, who joined UBS, was even chased through the streets of Zurich. Good times over in Switzerland.
Oh, and you might remember Emma Watson for her heroism at the Battle of Hogwarts.
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