[The beef 675]
[I'm an image]
âWTF just happened?â Jason, watching the Fed lower interest rates
Hey there carnivores,
Markets dropped big again, even after the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points.
Today weâre talking about why the rate cuts didnât go as planned.
Keep raging,
Jeff & Jason
[Image]
[I'm an image]
What the Fed?!
âDonât worry, weâll just drop rates and this whole thing will go away.â - Jay Powell on Monday night, presumably
In a classic heel-turn, [the likes of Hulk Hogan going to the NWO](, the Fed used an emergency rate cut yesterday, dropping the benchmark rate to between 1% to 1.25%. The real kicker? Stocks still tanked, giving back more than half of gains from Monday. This is why we canât have nice things.
Over-rated
As fears over the coronavirus have ravaged markets these past few weeks, Fed Chairman Jay Powell has been vocal, announcing just last week that the Fed would âact as appropriateâ to help the global economy. And here we are. The voting members of the Fed unanimously [approved the rate cut]( on Monday night, via teleconference, of course.
This was the first time an âemergencyâ rate cut has been handed down since the financial crisis in 2008. Not a great thing to be associated with. Initial reactions were great, as the Dow shot up 300 points before plummeting quicker than the average human life expectancy, finishing down 700. Naturally, POTUS wanted the Fed to drop rates even further... because lower rates can stop the coronavirus from spreading, as we all know.
One manâs trash...
... will get you a better yield than a 10-year US Treasury note at this point. The 10-year yield dropped below 1% for the first time *checks notes* ever [once the Fed rate cut was announced](. Since investors are scared of equities at the moment, money is pouring into "safe investments" like bonds. When people want bonds, the price goes up and the yield goes down. Congratulations, you just passed Econ 101.
Global markets also continued their free fall today, and the talking heads at the G7 summit didnât give much insight as to what the hell they plan to do about it, other than âuse policy tools to curb an economic slowdown.â That, of course, meaning âbrace for impact.â
The bottom line...
The funny thing about rate cuts is that they have proven to work when there is an actual economic crisis happening. Tech bubble crisis? Boom, rate cut. Mortgage crisis? Boom, rate cut. Trade War? Boom, rate cut. But coronavirus? Not so fast J-Pow.
Powell acknowledged that while the cut had absolutely no impact on controlling and curing the infectious disease spreading throughout the globe, it could help ease the global downturn by providing cheaper access to funds⦠that apparently nobody wants to spend.
It seems like companies are obliged to take losses now and use coronavirus as a way to explain the broader sell-off. But where tech and mortgage rates were an obvious bubble, the historic bull market over the past 11 years [doesnât have a clear one](. The scary part is that the rate cut was our Ace in the hole, and now weâre still in a free fall.
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[I'm an image]
âï¸See you in court. The SEC is suing two Israeli citizens, which it accuses of using tips on planned mergers to make more than [$4M]( in profits. The Israelis were fingered by Marc Demane Debih, a Geneva-based trader and the man (allegedly) at the center of the trading ring that nabbed him more than $70B.
Demane Debih pleaded guilty to 38 insider trading charges, and agreed in October to work with US authorities to help with their case. Snitches get stitches, Marc. Come on, we all know that. Demane Debih says he got his tips from Benjamin Taylor, a former Moelis banker, and Darina Windsor, a Centerview employee. Donât worry, they both were arrested.
âï¸Supply and demand, and price gouging. Online retailers have had to batten down the hatches as the coronavirus storm continues to brew. People afraid of the virus (read: anyone with an internet connection) have rushed to buy face masks, hand sanitizer, and hazmat suits despite CDC recommendations not to do so. What do they know? As a result, coronavirus truthers have turned to third party online retailers on Amazon, eBay, and Walmart to find goods sold out in physical stores.
Those third-party sellers are well trained in capitalism, and have been up charging products for [as much as 582%](. As a result, the online marketplaces have been scrambling to shut down parties selling products with misleading claims about the virus, or overcharging to products that would otherwise be VERY affordable. The standard surgical mask sells for cents on the dollar, but you canât put a price on a false sense of security.
âï¸Shifting inventory. Nordstrom is [reshuffling its leadership]( after a weak Q4. The high falutin department store will be consolidating its co-presidency into a single CEO, with Pete Nordstrom dropping into a president/Chief Brand Officer role, while brother Erik will be sole CEO. The firm will also reduce its number of board members from 11 to 10.
Itâs not just a weak Q4 that caused the re-shuffle, but it certainly didnât help, considering Nordstrom shares have fallen more than 28% over the last 12 years. Nordstrom delivered a $1.42 earnings per share, compared to an expected $1.47, while revenue also missed, coming in at $4.54B against $4.56B expected. Just a few pennies off, cut them some slack. Shares were down 7.5% on the news.
âï¸Left hanging. Robinhood has had a rough start to its week. The free trading app [was down]( for a second straight day thanks to the massive trading volume in the stock markets. While it was back online by 1 PM Eastern, markets were already way ahead of it, going crazy after the aforementioned rate cut by the Fed. Free trading... you get what you pay for, donât you?
Most recently, Robinhood was valued at $7.6B, but you can bet the number of spurned traders leaving after Monday/Tuesdayâs debacle will certainly pare that down a bit. Robinhood blamed the outage on âinfrastructure that allows our systems to communicate with each other.â Even if Robinhood was up and running, you still have to call a real broker to play the VIX.
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