[The beef 675]
[I'm an image]
âShort the VIX.â - Jason, on what he learned in 2019
[Read The Beef Online - Click Here](
Hey there carnivores,
Markets rose on Tuesday and were closed yesterday to celebrate New Yearâs Day (read: nurse hangover).
And today weâre looking back at 2019.
Keep raging,
Jeff & Jason
[Image]
[I'm an image]
Back on my bullsh*t
During the year of our lord 2019, stock indices across the globe had some of their best performances of the decade. Major indices in the US, Brazil, and Germany all increased by more than 20% in the year of the pig.
Markets letting their freak flag fly came as a bit of a surprise to investors. If you recall this time last year, the global economy was slowing, stocks ([never forget](12/24/18), bonds, and commodities were plummeting, the trade war had investors weak in the knees and worries about WTF Jerry Interest Rates and the Fed would do in the new year had marketsâ panties in a bunch.
Yet, like a stage-five clinger who just went off their meds, [markets persisted](. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow rose 29%, 35%, and 22%, respectively on the year.
Ready to crash?
âWhat could possibly go wrong?â - investors, probably
Despite the surge in 2019, investors are expecting markets to continue growing next year. Central bank policies have eased, the US economy proved to be more resilient than expected, and the official signing of a "phase one" trade deal between the US and China is coming at the beginning of January.
Still, potential headwinds remain. There is always a chance that the trade deal could blow up (spoiler: this will almost certainly happen), Brexit remains a royal pain in our asses, and the US election could throw markets for a loop.
The bottom line...
The '00s called and they want their stocks back.
The two stocks [that contributed the most]( to 2019âs total stock return were the same two stocks that contributed the most to the full decadeâs total stock return. Meet Apple and Microsoft.
Apple and Microsoft contributed 8.19% and 6.59% to the S&P 500âs total return in 2019 and 5.77% and 2.68% over the decade.
[I'm an image]
Do you read at an eighth-grade level?
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[I'm an image]
âï¸ On the dotted line. Donny Politics plans to [sign]( the US-China phase one trade deal on January 15th at the White House. Heâll be joined by âhigh levelâ Chinese officials but not by President Xi. You might remember that the two superpowers recently agreed that China would buy more agricultural goods from the US in return for the US' pledge to not move forward with new tariffs on $156B worth of Chinese goods and slash tariffs in half on $120B worth of goods. There is no word on what phase two of the trade deal will look like or when those talks will begin. El Pres did indicate, however, that he plans to travel to Beijing to discuss trade sometime in the future. Which sounds a lot like when you tell a former colleague that you âdefinitely want to catch up for coffee.â
âï¸ Stunt on 'em. The United States uses blacklist. Itâs super in-effective! Despite heavy criticism from POTUS and US sanctions, Huawei, the largest telecom manufacturer in the world, [announced]( that it will record $122B in annual revenue. This after indicating earlier this year that âsurvivalâ was the companyâs biggest priority. Survive and advance, indeed. Itâs worth noting that the Chinese company did miss full year expectations of $125B.
âï¸ Ten-spot. While the rest of the world is just trying to figure out if itâs ok for Drake to be [texting]( Billie Eilish, Tencent is busy [snatching up]( a 10% stake in Universal Music Group from Vivendi for $3.36B. The deal, which will give Tencent an option to buy an additional 10% of Universal, values the company at more than $30B. Tencent which recently held an IPO for its music biz in the US is looking to cash in on a growing music catalog during a time when streaming makes ownership of music incredibly lucrative. Just ask Scooter Braun.
âï¸ Vape God. Itâs a big day for that guy who never left your hometown and sells weed down at the local vape emporium. The FDA will [ban]( all e-cig pod flavors except for tobacco and menthol. The ban will exclude tank vaping systems that guys named Kyle refer to as ârigs.â These open systems are the types found most often in vape shops (and meth labs) which allow hobbyists to mix their own nicotine liquid, which has been attributed to some of the 2.5k vape-related incidents. The preferred e-cigs of teens tend to be prefilled cartridges such as those made by Juul etc. Seeing the writing on the wall, Juul had already self-imposed a ban on flavored pods in November.
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