🌎 The Fed waits and watches

Plus: The economy’s weird signals. Was this newsletter forwarded to you? [Sign up here](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Femails%2Fdaily-brief%2F/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/QJvYzJQ2fSkQIYYqDJMcPTLD9ki1wo2DoOhXv8ae-Js=325) [Quartz](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Femails%2Fdaily-brief%2F1850982943%2Fthe-fed-waits-and-watches%2F/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/U8bhRVPoVF3LoldTvBrBtjlIiX_vUu2fknDS61YiY4s=325) November 2, 2023 [View in browser](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Femails%2Fdaily-brief%2F1850982943%2Fthe-fed-waits-and-watches%2F/2/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/_FMc5bNsiiQps47ervAY0qqm59hiyodFalebJd41Hm4=325) Sponsored By %2F%2Fqz.com%2Femails%2Fdaily-brief%2F1850982943%2Fthe-fed-waits-and-watches%2F/3/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/_D_kjVLf5qLJCxdydk8W2d6ffQ7gwl8-vkjii8C8lyY=325 Photo: Reuters (Kevin Lamarque) Good morning, Quartz readers! Here’s what you need to know The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady. It wasn’t unexpected, but that doesn’t mean it didn’t [annoy a lot of people](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Fthe-fed-holds-steady-in-an-unprecedented-economy-1850977241%2F%3Futm_source=email%26utm_medium=Quartz_Daily_Brief_US%26utm_content=1850982943/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/RGwJ2ZfykRwQ34QelrUXVTYWR-nSUTiE5VmiprgD_gQ=325) (more on that below). Most of Toyota’s US factory workers got 9% raises. The UAW strike in Detroit is [making waves](%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Fbusiness%2Fautos%2Ftoyota-gives-most-of-its-u-s-auto-factory-workers-9-pay-bump-following-uaw-gains-in-detroit-123664ff/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/MEBBg14vhZ_imH5MTdxWI2MTxYmjgtQXn6BolqttQis=325). Danish energy developer Ørsted pulled out of two wind power projects off the coast of New Jersey. The move disappointed the White House, [not to mention shareholders](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Fdanish-energy-developer-orsted-delivered-a-setback-to-b-1850979774%2F%3Futm_source=email%26utm_medium=Quartz_Daily_Brief_US%26utm_content=1850982943/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/GnJa1xpdGbtRwYlgOHowBvv6xHF-XlOOZv4da8G8YoA=325), who knocked more than 25% off the value of the company’s stock. Closing statements began in the criminal fraud trial of Sam Bankman-Fried. The disgraced FTX founder’s lawyer said he’d been unfairly turned into a “villain;” prosecutors said he [lied about things big and small](%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2023-11-01%2Fsbf-lied-about-big-things-and-little-things-prosecutor-says/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/rmvQ7yMmIzLuINU_CP7KFyp_bT8Hsy3WcgV6TMwIBek=325). Sponsor content by BofA Securities [BofA Securities]( See market signals in a sea of data. Each week, our Global Research Unlocked™️ podcast helps you chart the right path. Nuanced insights from industry-leading analysts help you achieve industry-leading results. [advertisement][advertisement][advertisement] [Listen now.]( The Fed holds steady as the economy gets weird around it The Federal Reserve decided to hold its key interest rate between a range of 5.25% and 5.5% yesterday, and investors watched to see whether chair Jay Powell would hint at what will happen at the next meeting, in December. It will come down to what the data implies, he insisted—two more inflation readings and two more labor market readings. Thus far, those implications are stumping a lot of economists. Much-mocked recession predictions from economists like Harvard’s Larry Summers relied on historical data. For example, in 11 historical instances where average wage inflation was 5% and the unemployment rate was below 5%, a recession occurred within two years. Tim Fernholz looks at the mixed signals, and the [impacts of the Fed’s interest rate increases](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Fthe-fed-holds-steady-in-an-unprecedented-economy-1850977241%2F%3Futm_source=email%26utm_medium=Quartz_Daily_Brief_US%26utm_content=1850982943/2/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/hOI8fNz_ZHY6DVEKQpRNWEHHeB4lWi29PThr-zIUj08=325) to date. BYD is coming for Tesla Last year, Chinese EV champion BYD dethroned Tesla as the world’s biggest seller of electric vehicles, counting both full-electric and plug-in hybrid cars. Now, the two companies are neck and neck for the number of fully electric cars sold—but sales volume isn’t the only metric that has Tesla watching its back. %2F%2Fqz.com%2Femails%2Fdaily-brief%2F1850982943%2Fthe-fed-waits-and-watches%2F/4/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/BW_8zAy0c1iYtrHtFRIfg_t7NEuz9Q5wctZ42lKcrHE=325 Graphic: (Mary Hui) In terms of how much profit each company is making per car, BYD is gradually eating into Tesla’s lead. BYD has been fattening profit margins at the same time as Tesla’s profit per car is slipping, though it’s still making more money per car than any of its global competitors. [But for how long?](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Fchinas-ev-giant-byd-is-slowly-closing-its-profit-gap-wi-1850979109%2F%3Futm_source=email%26utm_medium=Quartz_Daily_Brief_US%26utm_content=1850982943/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/X7AaUcjmy9d0n_m1KV4zWTbbayHf9z6y6TINTVk7XbQ=325) Does anyone not like Biden’s new AI guidelines? US president Joe Biden announced a [sweeping new executive order](%2F%2Fwww.whitehouse.gov%2Fbriefing-room%2Fstatements-releases%2F2023%2F10%2F30%2Ffact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence%2F/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/FROO19m6qW0e8As8grcoHdLw7DFzCi5GaVfodcSRF0E=325) on Monday, establishing rules and guidelines around AI research, development, and use for government agencies and tech companies alike. For the most part, the guidelines are well-received—both industry players and American consumers feel that AI needs a firm hands on the tiller. 💑 An AI Policy Institute survey found that 68% of Americans approve of the initiative 🕴️ Tech executives are speaking out in favor, particularly the guidelines’ emphasis on testing and evaluation 🧑‍🏫 Even those who [have been skeptical](%2F%2Fwww.bostonglobe.com%2F2023%2F09%2F15%2Fopinion%2Fcongress-artificial-intelligence-regulation%2F/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/h0xeZ3psEseQrwaKwZDshXaz2EpGlfmA2nOQ25ML6No=325) about the effectiveness of AI regulation are pleased with the order. “I was delighted that they didn’t do wrong; their approach is good,” W. Russell Neuman, a professor of media technology at New York University, told Quartz. Grete Suarez talked to Neuman, and [rounded up some other opinions](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Fdoes-anyone-not-like-bidens-new-guidelines-on-ai-1850974346%2F%3Futm_source=email%26utm_medium=Quartz_Daily_Brief_US%26utm_content=1850982943/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/pRgpepJp3v2Lyr_-EZ8FR7Gyq0N5hVBtKLU-N7rqtfE=325) about the White House’s attempt to get ahead of the latest technology. 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Each week, our Global Research Unlocked™️ podcast helps you chart the right path. Nuanced insights from industry-leading analysts help you achieve industry-leading results. [advertisement][advertisement][advertisement] [Listen now.]( Surprising discoveries The Collins Dictionary 2023 word of the year is… Hint: It’s [a two-letter abbreviation](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Fcollins-dictionary-word-the-year-2023-ai-1850979344%2F%3Futm_source=email%26utm_medium=Quartz_Daily_Brief_US%26utm_content=1850982943/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/3auD7YOfZKgKTQOhzx9O6kEjX54Ui5Ham4iKDRKaFOg=325) for a tech term nobody can stop talking about, including us. Only 50 countries have drinkable tap water. And even that number is [up for debate](%2F%2Fbigthink.com%2Fstrange-maps%2Fdrink-tap-water-50-countries%2F/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/4pJvH8uoi3-Fy1O6pTNKM1yIIJFEoSe0Lv7DeF2KVJw=325). If you stick to the hero’s journey, you’ll find more meaning in life. It’s [not just a literary trope](%2F%2Fwww.scientificamerican.com%2Farticle%2Fto-lead-a-meaningful-life-become-your-own-hero%2F/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/eoTsvhSEysbyAhEba6K16UTmTX9yKTBSb4APmSlc1fQ=325)! Taylor Swift is important to the US GDP. The very fact that a business publication like ours mentions her so often should be a big clue—our latest Quartz Weekly Obsession is on [the Taylor Swift economy](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Femails%2Fquartz-obsession%2F1850978192%2Fthe-taylor-swift-economy-red-hot/2/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/oXCHvJ-sGbkMIkSHFKt5ZgguCC0M0bPyM2rqbBQZYvM=325), and it’s time you red it. [Subscribe today](%2F%2Fqz.com%2Femails%2Fquartz-obsession/1/0100018b8f7b1783-b5633a9b-717d-45a0-97b2-c18f712c86c5-000000/eaSUyJ0O5Ykc-bG6DkzfXnbjA5HU24JacDMYJbVGgV0=325) to get the Obsession free in your inbox every Wednesday. 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