The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in a decade on Wednesday. With US growth solid, the move has invited speculation: Might the Fed be appeasing Donald Trump, who routinely blasts the central bank for too-tight rates?
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The Federal Reserve [cut rates]( for the first time in a decade on Wednesday. With US growth solid, the move has invited speculation: Might the Fed be appeasing Donald Trump, who routinely blasts the central bank for too-tight rates?
Itâs an ominous possibility. One of the most sacred tenets of economics is âcentral bank independenceââthe immunity of monetary policy to politics. And with good reason; state pressure has ignited past inflationary episodes (most notoriously [during Richard Nixonâs 1972 reelection campaign](.
Regardless of its causes, 1970s-style inflation would indeed be frightening. Also scary, though, is the prospect that freakishly low inflation might not budgeâa sign that what ails the US economy is beyond the Fedâs powers to heal.
Usually, low inflation signals that people are buying less than the economy can produceâcausing rising unemployment and slumping output. Cutting rates encourages borrowing, funding new spending that reverses things. Eventually, businesses and workers are so flush, they start demanding more than the economy can produce. Prices climb. To curb inflation, the central bank hikes rates back to where they had been.
That was the business cycle of the 1950s through the 1970s. No longer.
Despite a decade of ultra-low rates and unconventional monetary policies, inflation refuses to budgeâhinting at an economy operating at less-than-full capacity. So the Fed kept rates low (though in fairness, it tightened more than other central banks). That helped the economyâbut also fueled a corporate debt binge. Credit now rivals earnings as a critical growth engineâfor example, between 2015 and 2017, as much as [40% of business investment]( (pdf) came from companies financed by junk bonds. That leaves the real economy increasingly hooked on Fed liquidity.
This brings us to the Fedâs big dilemma. Weak global growth and Trumpâs trade warring threaten to drag down growth. Preventing mass corporate default requires loose money. Given those conditions, Wednesdayâs cut might indeed keep things stableâand maybe even revive inflation. Then again, the economy is already clogged with debt. That makes it harder for cheaper credit to pump up demand and, therefore, prices. And, of course, adds to the costs that eventually must be paid to unclog it. âGwynn Guilford
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Our best wishes for a relaxing but thought-filled weekend. Please send any news, comments, AV scenarios, and all-purpose cleaning tablets to hi@qz.com. Join the next chapter of Quartz by [downloading our app]( and [becoming a member](. Todayâs Weekend Brief was edited by Steve Mollman and Kira Bindrim.
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