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Posted on Sunday, December 1st, 2019 By Kyle Dennis on Raging Bull
Forex and currency trading is extremely risky ⦠and if you donât know what youâre doing, you could be in a world of pain. Thatâs why I stick to easy strategies in stocks and options.
Take the Swiss Franc in 2015 when the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly unpegged the franc per euro. That led to the bludgeoning of FXCM (a forex broker), as shares plummeted 88% one day after the âblack swanâ event.
Recently, we saw similar action with the Turkish Lira.
In 2018, we saw the Lira whiplash traders⦠and in 2019, we saw the unstable currency weaken significantly against the U.S. dollar due to political tensions.
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Banks like BNP Paribas and Barclays lost millions⦠and Citigroup Inc. (CITI) stared in the face of a $180M loss on a loan to a trader who took a bevy of âwrong-sidedâ bets linked to the Lira.
I donât know what the âsmart moneyâ was thinking with this bet⦠but my guess is they were playing for a bounce and thought they would get paid⦠little did they know, the markets could remain irrational for extended periods of time.
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One junior trader learned it the hard way.
Bloomberg dropped an expose on Morgan Stanley just the other day, noting âThe firm is investigating suspected mismarking of securities to conceal losses of as much as $140 million in a portfolio handled day-to-day by London-based Scott Eisner, a 2014 Yale University graduate and associate at the firmâ¦â
There were multiple traders in question when it came to the concealed losses. Thiago Melzer was in charge of running the foreign exchange and emerging markets Americas desk, while Mitchell Nadel ran macro trading in the Americas (this included interest rates and currency bets).
The 27-year old Eisner managed orders for various currencies⦠and of course, he knew what was going on with Morgan Stanleyâs profit and loss (PnL) â knowing he would either get fired or be moved to a lesser role if he owned up to the losses.
So what did these fat cats do?
They used currency options and decided to âmismarkâ their PnL because they knew if they placed a certain value on the currency bets⦠it didnât really reflect the true worth.
Get this⦠in the third quarter, Morgan Stanley actually âbookedâ some of the losses, yet it showed more than a 20% rise in fixed-income trading revenue (part of it was offset by a drop in Foreign Exchange).
Little did the bulge bracket know, there was a group of traders who were using funky âaccountingâ to conceal their losses. The kicker: these traders were either suspended or fired, they got off pretty much scot-free.
The traders probably didnât expect to sit in such massive losses⦠and thatâs the problem with trading currencies â you never really know when things will revert to the norm.
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