When The Curtain Falls Before It Rises

[] is the crash canceled? [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] MARCH 01, 2024 [] [] PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK When The Curtain Falls Before It Rises We’ve been hearing increasing warnings about a market top, but despite several key events, the market keeps trudging higher. Is the crash canceled? Since October 27th, the market's journey has been nothing short of a roller coaster. With the unexpected turnaround late in October, it felt like the market caught a second wind. For those of us watching from the sidelines, NVDA's performance was like a beacon, signaling a resurgence in investor confidence. And post-earnings, NVDA didn't just meet expectations — it soared, reigniting the market's momentum. Meanwhile, the buzz around the SMCI "bubble" had us bracing for impact. Yet, even after a sharp 30% sell-off, SMCI clawed its way back, underscoring the resilience and unpredictable nature of the market. Here's where it gets interesting. Despite the occasional bearish whisper, major indices like the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq have blown through all-time highs. And the S5FI — the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average — a metric that has slid steadily lower since January 1st, has even started to look like its recovering. It all begs the question: what's next for the market? Truth be told, the market's future is as clear as mud. Predictions are all over the map, and for every theory pointing one way, there's another forecasting the opposite. Could the market still have fuel in the tank for another rally? Or are we on the cusp of a slow descent… Maybe a breather before another surge? Only time will tell. But despite the uncertainty in the market, the moral of the story is clear: Navigate the market's uncertainty with caution. Avoid getting caught in the hype, but also, don't let fear sideline you. — The Prosperity Pub Team [] [] 3 Simple Trades For Stability & Growth Can you really invest effectively with just three trades a month? One expert isn’t just saying “YES!”… He — and his followers — have already been doing it! [Discover how to elevate your portfolio!]( [] [] SCOTT WELSH’S ANATOMY OF A GREAT TRADE Anatomy of a Great Trade: IOVA Back in October 2023, IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics) was down in the dumps. That’s what biotech stocks do sometimes. And its “fair value” was far above price at $18. The stock at that time was at $3.70. But who would buy a falling knife in a downtrend? Especially when it’s a biotech stock. So we could have waited. Recently, in January, IOVA came up on an “undervalued” scan. At that moment, the price was around $8. (We could have made a killing buying back in October.) But “fair value”/the 800 simple moving average was still far above, up at the $16 level. See the chart here: [] And what do you know? IOVA has suddenly returned to “fair value”, as biotechs do sometimes. It made 100% in a month. Deep Value can sometimes pay off huge. Happy trading, Scott P.S. As a reminder, these historical lookbacks are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The charts above use monthly candles and a 12 month simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on [this Ask The Pros episode]( starting at timestamp 20:45. Additionally, the teal lines on the chart show the profitable runs. [] [] [] [] MARCH 01, 2024 [] [] PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK When The Curtain Falls Before It Rises We’ve been hearing increasing warnings about a market top, but despite several key events, the market keeps trudging higher. Is the crash canceled? Since October 27th, the market's journey has been nothing short of a roller coaster. With the unexpected turnaround late in October, it felt like the market caught a second wind. For those of us watching from the sidelines, NVDA's performance was like a beacon, signaling a resurgence in investor confidence. And post-earnings, NVDA didn't just meet expectations — it soared, reigniting the market's momentum. Meanwhile, the buzz around the SMCI "bubble" had us bracing for impact. Yet, even after a sharp 30% sell-off, SMCI clawed its way back, underscoring the resilience and unpredictable nature of the market. Here's where it gets interesting. Despite the occasional bearish whisper, major indices like the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq have blown through all-time highs. And the S5FI — the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average — a metric that has slid steadily lower since January 1st, has even started to look like its recovering. It all begs the question: what's next for the market? Truth be told, the market's future is as clear as mud. Predictions are all over the map, and for every theory pointing one way, there's another forecasting the opposite. Could the market still have fuel in the tank for another rally? Or are we on the cusp of a slow descent… Maybe a breather before another surge? Only time will tell. But despite the uncertainty in the market, the moral of the story is clear: Navigate the market's uncertainty with caution. Avoid getting caught in the hype, but also, don't let fear sideline you. — The Prosperity Pub Team [] [] 3 Simple Trades For Stability & Growth Can you really invest effectively with just three trades a month? One expert isn’t just saying “YES!”… He — and his followers — have already been doing it! [Discover how to elevate your portfolio!]( [] [] SCOTT WELSH’S ANATOMY OF A GREAT TRADE Anatomy of a Great Trade: IOVA Back in October 2023, IOVA (Iovance Biotherapeutics) was down in the dumps. That’s what biotech stocks do sometimes. And its “fair value” was far above price at $18. The stock at that time was at $3.70. But who would buy a falling knife in a downtrend? Especially when it’s a biotech stock. So we could have waited. Recently, in January, IOVA came up on an “undervalued” scan. At that moment, the price was around $8. (We could have made a killing buying back in October.) But “fair value”/the 800 simple moving average was still far above, up at the $16 level. See the chart here: [] And what do you know? IOVA has suddenly returned to “fair value”, as biotechs do sometimes. It made 100% in a month. Deep Value can sometimes pay off huge. Happy trading, Scott P.S. As a reminder, these historical lookbacks are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The charts above use monthly candles and a 12 month simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on [this Ask The Pros episode]( starting at timestamp 20:45. Additionally, the teal lines on the chart show the profitable runs. [] [] [] [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](