ARM IPO vs META IPO (Anatomy of a Great Trade)

[] [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] SEPT 22, 2023 [] [] SCOTT WELSH’S ANATOMY OF A GREAT TRADE ARM’s IPO Disappoints. But That’s Not How We Play IPOs. The IPO market has been in the news lately as ARM has captivated the trading world. It’s hugely popular and carries a big valuation. So everyone’s watching. How has it done? Not good. [] A bunch of excitement followed by a big letdown. Which is typical when IPOs first come out. Which is why we don’t trade IPOs this way. We wait many months until the 12-month simple moving average (SMA) finally shows up on our chart. Then we wait for two consecutive closes above the SMA. Then we get out when price crosses back down below the SMA. Does this work? Here’s how it worked on META, then known as Facebook: [] First, there was excitement. (We weren’t involved.) Then price fell off a cliff. (We didn’t care.) Then everyone forgot about it. (We didn’t.) Then it took off after the SMA showed up and there were two consecutive closes above it. (We would’ve entered in August 2013 at $37.30 and would have ridden it until January 2017, where we would’ve exited at $116.) By waiting, we could have missed all the initial angst and still had a 200% winning trade. The IPO market will pick up again once the Bear Market finally and truly turns into a Bull Market. But there’s no need to rush into anything. We can catch big moves on new companies. If we take a long-term perspective. Happy trading, Scott P.S. As a reminder, these historical lookbacks are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The charts above use monthly candles and a 12 month simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on [this Ask The Pros episode]( starting at timestamp 20:45. Additionally, the teal lines on the chart show the profitable runs. [] [] MICAH LAMAR From Rivals to Titans: The Dramatic Shift in the Apple-Microsoft Dynamic Few rivalries in the world of business have been as iconic and enduring as that of Apple and Microsoft. Their story, filled with drama, competition, and innovation, has been beautifully captured in the 1999 made-for-cable movie "Pirates of Silicon Valley." This film offers a unique lens into the early days of these tech giants, highlighting the ups and downs of their relationship and the pivotal moments that defined the tech industry. A Humbling Moment for Apple "Pirates of Silicon Valley" paints a vivid picture of the intense competition between Steve Jobs' Apple and Bill Gates' Microsoft during the late 20th century. One of the most poignant moments in the film is when Apple, once the beacon of innovation with its Macintosh computer, finds itself in a vulnerable position. Facing financial difficulties and a declining market share, Apple is forced to bend a knee to its chief rival, Microsoft. In a scene that's both dramatic and telling, Steve Jobs confronts Bill Gates, accusing him of stealing the Mac's graphical interface for Windows. Gates retorts, "Steve, you don't get it. We have no other choice." The power dynamics are clear: Apple, once the leader, is now reliant on an investment from Microsoft to stay afloat. The Tables Turn While the movie encapsulates a period when Microsoft had the upper hand, the tech landscape was destined to shift dramatically in the years that followed. After the Microsoft investment, Apple, under the renewed leadership of Steve Jobs, embarked on a series of innovations that would not only revive the company but propel it to unprecedented heights. The introduction of products like the iPod, iPhone, and iPad revolutionized industries and consumer behavior. By the time the iPhone became a global phenomenon, Apple's trajectory was unstoppable. In an ironic twist of fate, by the 2010s, Apple's iPhone division alone was generating more revenue than all of Microsoft. The underdog had not only caught up but had surpassed its rival in a domain they once dominated. A Lesson in Resilience and Vision The story of these two legendary tech giants, as depicted in "Pirates of Silicon Valley," is more than just a tale of corporate rivalry. It's a testament to the power of vision, resilience, and adaptability. Apple's journey from near-bankruptcy to becoming the world's most valuable company is a reminder that with the right leadership and innovation, companies can rewrite their destinies. In the ever-evolving world of technology, today's leader can be tomorrow's beggar, and vice versa. As the dynamics between Apple and Microsoft have shown, success is not just about having a great product; it's about continuously adapting, innovating, and staying ahead of the curve. If there's one thing to take away from Apple's meteoric rise, it's that smart investments in forward-thinking companies can yield incredible returns. For those looking to tap into the potential of the next big tech breakthrough, my Perfect Income Trade strategy offers a unique approach to trading AAPL, the world's most valuable stock. If you missed out on catching the wave during Apple’s meteoric rise from struggling has-been to world’s most valuable company… I have great news for you. I’ve spent over a decade studying Apple stock. And I’ve paired two of my most intriguing findings to create a completely new way to trade AAPL. It lets me multiply the trade opportunities available from harnessing Apple’s “profit cycles”, giving me an opportunity to ride as many as 30 trades every single year. It’s something you have to see to believe. I recently went live with a small group of Apple fanatics to show them this strategy… And the reaction was nothing less than extraordinary. So much so that my publisher has put together an encore event so I can share it with a larger group. But if you want to join me, I urge you to [click here to reserve your spot now](. Interest is high and spots are limited. I can’t wait to share this with you! — Micah Lamar [] [] [] ___________________________________________________ [] [] SEPT 22, 2023 [] [] SCOTT WELSH’S ANATOMY OF A GREAT TRADE ARM’s IPO Disappoints. But That’s Not How We Play IPOs. The IPO market has been in the news lately as ARM has captivated the trading world. It’s hugely popular and carries a big valuation. So everyone’s watching. How has it done? Not good. [] A bunch of excitement followed by a big letdown. Which is typical when IPOs first come out. Which is why we don’t trade IPOs this way. We wait many months until the 12-month simple moving average (SMA) finally shows up on our chart. Then we wait for two consecutive closes above the SMA. Then we get out when price crosses back down below the SMA. Does this work? Here’s how it worked on META, then known as Facebook: [] First, there was excitement. (We weren’t involved.) Then price fell off a cliff. (We didn’t care.) Then everyone forgot about it. (We didn’t.) Then it took off after the SMA showed up and there were two consecutive closes above it. (We would’ve entered in August 2013 at $37.30 and would have ridden it until January 2017, where we would’ve exited at $116.) By waiting, we could have missed all the initial angst and still had a 200% winning trade. The IPO market will pick up again once the Bear Market finally and truly turns into a Bull Market. But there’s no need to rush into anything. We can catch big moves on new companies. If we take a long-term perspective. Happy trading, Scott P.S. As a reminder, these historical lookbacks are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The charts above use monthly candles and a 12 month simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on [this Ask The Pros episode]( starting at timestamp 20:45. Additionally, the teal lines on the chart show the profitable runs. [] [] MICAH LAMAR From Rivals to Titans: The Dramatic Shift in the Apple-Microsoft Dynamic Few rivalries in the world of business have been as iconic and enduring as that of Apple and Microsoft. Their story, filled with drama, competition, and innovation, has been beautifully captured in the 1999 made-for-cable movie "Pirates of Silicon Valley." This film offers a unique lens into the early days of these tech giants, highlighting the ups and downs of their relationship and the pivotal moments that defined the tech industry. A Humbling Moment for Apple "Pirates of Silicon Valley" paints a vivid picture of the intense competition between Steve Jobs' Apple and Bill Gates' Microsoft during the late 20th century. One of the most poignant moments in the film is when Apple, once the beacon of innovation with its Macintosh computer, finds itself in a vulnerable position. Facing financial difficulties and a declining market share, Apple is forced to bend a knee to its chief rival, Microsoft. In a scene that's both dramatic and telling, Steve Jobs confronts Bill Gates, accusing him of stealing the Mac's graphical interface for Windows. Gates retorts, "Steve, you don't get it. We have no other choice." The power dynamics are clear: Apple, once the leader, is now reliant on an investment from Microsoft to stay afloat. The Tables Turn While the movie encapsulates a period when Microsoft had the upper hand, the tech landscape was destined to shift dramatically in the years that followed. After the Microsoft investment, Apple, under the renewed leadership of Steve Jobs, embarked on a series of innovations that would not only revive the company but propel it to unprecedented heights. The introduction of products like the iPod, iPhone, and iPad revolutionized industries and consumer behavior. By the time the iPhone became a global phenomenon, Apple's trajectory was unstoppable. In an ironic twist of fate, by the 2010s, Apple's iPhone division alone was generating more revenue than all of Microsoft. The underdog had not only caught up but had surpassed its rival in a domain they once dominated. A Lesson in Resilience and Vision The story of these two legendary tech giants, as depicted in "Pirates of Silicon Valley," is more than just a tale of corporate rivalry. It's a testament to the power of vision, resilience, and adaptability. Apple's journey from near-bankruptcy to becoming the world's most valuable company is a reminder that with the right leadership and innovation, companies can rewrite their destinies. In the ever-evolving world of technology, today's leader can be tomorrow's beggar, and vice versa. As the dynamics between Apple and Microsoft have shown, success is not just about having a great product; it's about continuously adapting, innovating, and staying ahead of the curve. If there's one thing to take away from Apple's meteoric rise, it's that smart investments in forward-thinking companies can yield incredible returns. For those looking to tap into the potential of the next big tech breakthrough, my Perfect Income Trade strategy offers a unique approach to trading AAPL, the world's most valuable stock. If you missed out on catching the wave during Apple’s meteoric rise from struggling has-been to world’s most valuable company… I have great news for you. I’ve spent over a decade studying Apple stock. And I’ve paired two of my most intriguing findings to create a completely new way to trade AAPL. It lets me multiply the trade opportunities available from harnessing Apple’s “profit cycles”, giving me an opportunity to ride as many as 30 trades every single year. It’s something you have to see to believe. I recently went live with a small group of Apple fanatics to show them this strategy… And the reaction was nothing less than extraordinary. So much so that my publisher has put together an encore event so I can share it with a larger group. But if you want to join me, I urge you to [click here to reserve your spot now](. Interest is high and spots are limited. I can’t wait to share this with you! — Micah Lamar [] [] [] ___________________________________________________ [] [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](