The Fed’s Pause and Pivot Fading Fast

[] [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] MAY 18 2023 The Fed’s Pause and Pivot Fading Fast [] [] DON YOCHAM Pushing Back the Pause Ever since the banking crisis started throwing off sparks in March, Fed Fund futures have priced in a Federal Reserve pausing hikes in June and July, then beginning to ease in September. And given that Fed action has been the only real catalyst kicking stock markets around for well over a year, I’ve been expecting sideways action through summer, with 4,200 as an upper limit on the S&P. At least until the fall. [] But the markets now see something new. Perhaps it’s the strong retail sales environment. Or maybe the markets fear persistent inflation in Europe will continue to pressure prices here. Could be that the markets expect congress to act on the debt ceiling quickly. Whatever the reason, Fed Funds futures are placing increasing weight on the likelihood of continued rate hikes. [] These two charts compare the probabilities for the June and July Fed meetings. The column to the right of both charts indicate a 25 basis point hike. A week ago, the likelihood of a hike was negligible. That’s no longer the case. And the odds of a cut by September are fading fast too with hike odds creeping higher. [] What’s truly notable in this shift is that the expectation is now for a more hawkish Fed while ever since last summer the market has faded the Fed’s hawkish statements. Personally, I think recession fears are fading too. And once the summer has passed, the rally in stocks will begin. [] Take What the Markets Give You. [] [] SCOTT WELSH Entertain Us Are you not entertained?? Maximus asked us that back in 2000, and for a while, we weren’t. As inflation started going through the roof and the Bear Market hit in 2022, the Entertainment/Leisure Related stocks took a beating: [] Fifteen bucks a month or more seemed trivial and expensive. And people stopped paying to see the latest hot shows. But then things started to turn. Yes, inflation is still high but it’s lessening. People are starting to feel positive again. And traders are hoping Washington raises the debt ceiling and the Bull Market finally begins again. Take a look now at the right side of the Netflix, Inc. ([NFLX]( chart: [] It’s undoubtedly bullish. And NFLX is exploding today. A break above $379.45 could lead to another huge Netflix run. Especially in a bullish overall market. Happy trading, Scott [] [] LANCE IPPOLITO This Guy is the Real Deal Seriously, you gotta check this out. I just sat down with a guy unlike any trader I’ve ever worked with. It’s not just because he’s an urban farmer and engineer on the side… And it’s not just because of his unique facial hair… This guy is the real deal when it comes to exploiting strange options anomalies. As you know, that’s kind of my bread and butter. So I was immediately interested… But when I heard about his 60-Minute Trade? The strategy he’s used to target 50% or more in 60 minutes or less? Well, I’ll admit, I was skeptical at first, but then I saw his track record… With top wins like 25% in 3 minutes… 52.56% in just 27 minutes… and even 108.33% in 34 minutes! All with 60% wins and an average win of 77%! And then I saw that he puts his own money on the line for every single trade… that’s when I knew I had to sit down with him. So now, you can catch the replay of our conversation. You don’t want to miss it. [>> Access the full recording here]( You’ll see how Jeffry built this strategy, why he has so much confidence in it, and how it’s possible to target 50% or more in 60 minutes or less as soon as tomorrow’s opening bell. Lance The profits and performance shown are not typical, we make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. From 1/3/2022 through 3/27/2023 the average return is 16% per trade (winners and losers) with a win rate of 61%. The average winner is 79.8% over a 54 minute holding time. The annualized rate of return is 383%. [] [] [] MAY 18 2023 The Fed’s Pause and Pivot Fading Fast [] [] DON YOCHAM Pushing Back the Pause Ever since the banking crisis started throwing off sparks in March, Fed Fund futures have priced in a Federal Reserve pausing hikes in June and July, then beginning to ease in September. And given that Fed action has been the only real catalyst kicking stock markets around for well over a year, I’ve been expecting sideways action through summer, with 4,200 as an upper limit on the S&P. At least until the fall. [] But the markets now see something new. Perhaps it’s the strong retail sales environment. Or maybe the markets fear persistent inflation in Europe will continue to pressure prices here. Could be that the markets expect congress to act on the debt ceiling quickly. Whatever the reason, Fed Funds futures are placing increasing weight on the likelihood of continued rate hikes. [] These two charts compare the probabilities for the June and July Fed meetings. The column to the right of both charts indicate a 25 basis point hike. A week ago, the likelihood of a hike was negligible. That’s no longer the case. And the odds of a cut by September are fading fast too with hike odds creeping higher. [] What’s truly notable in this shift is that the expectation is now for a more hawkish Fed while ever since last summer the market has faded the Fed’s hawkish statements. Personally, I think recession fears are fading too. And once the summer has passed, the rally in stocks will begin. [] Take What the Markets Give You. [] [] SCOTT WELSH Entertain Us Are you not entertained?? Maximus asked us that back in 2000, and for a while, we weren’t. As inflation started going through the roof and the Bear Market hit in 2022, the Entertainment/Leisure Related stocks took a beating: [] Fifteen bucks a month or more seemed trivial and expensive. And people stopped paying to see the latest hot shows. But then things started to turn. Yes, inflation is still high but it’s lessening. People are starting to feel positive again. And traders are hoping Washington raises the debt ceiling and the Bull Market finally begins again. Take a look now at the right side of the Netflix, Inc. ([NFLX]( chart: [] It’s undoubtedly bullish. And NFLX is exploding today. A break above $379.45 could lead to another huge Netflix run. Especially in a bullish overall market. Happy trading, Scott [] [] LANCE IPPOLITO This Guy is the Real Deal Seriously, you gotta check this out. I just sat down with a guy unlike any trader I’ve ever worked with. It’s not just because he’s an urban farmer and engineer on the side… And it’s not just because of his unique facial hair… This guy is the real deal when it comes to exploiting strange options anomalies. As you know, that’s kind of my bread and butter. So I was immediately interested… But when I heard about his 60-Minute Trade? The strategy he’s used to target 50% or more in 60 minutes or less? Well, I’ll admit, I was skeptical at first, but then I saw his track record… With top wins like 25% in 3 minutes… 52.56% in just 27 minutes… and even 108.33% in 34 minutes! All with 60% wins and an average win of 77%! And then I saw that he puts his own money on the line for every single trade… that’s when I knew I had to sit down with him. So now, you can catch the replay of our conversation. You don’t want to miss it. [>> Access the full recording here]( You’ll see how Jeffry built this strategy, why he has so much confidence in it, and how it’s possible to target 50% or more in 60 minutes or less as soon as tomorrow’s opening bell. Lance The profits and performance shown are not typical, we make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. From 1/3/2022 through 3/27/2023 the average return is 16% per trade (winners and losers) with a win rate of 61%. The average winner is 79.8% over a 54 minute holding time. The annualized rate of return is 383%. [] [] [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 495 Town Plaza | Ponte Vedra | FL | 32081 [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 495 Town Plaza | Ponte Vedra | FL | 32081 [Prosperity Pub](