Goldilocks Rates and the Three Bears

[] [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] MAY 15 2023 Goldilocks Rates and the Three Bears [] [] [] DON YOCHAM Real Fed Funds Between the most aggressive rate hike campaign in history and an easing pace of inflation, it looks the Fed Funds rate is finally in neutral territory. [] Like Goldilocks’ porridge, when you subtract inflation of 4.96% (the latest year-over-year increase for the PCE deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) from the Fed Funds rate, the Federal Open Market Committee seems to have landed at not too hot and not too cold. And while the Fed takes a wait-and-see approach, the question becomes how soon before fighting recession becomes the priority. Job Openings have tumbled… [] The housing continues to contract with construction down… [] Fewer new homes being constructed… [] And plans for new homes on the decline… [] Bank sector credit tightening is also taking a bite. Consumer credit has turned lower… [] And industrial loans have turned lower, as well… [] For the better part of 2 years, retail sales have remained relatively stable having plateaued at COVID stimulus highs… [] We’ll get an updated read on this stat tomorrow, with the median forecast expecting Retail Sales to increase by 0.8% during April. But with the debt ceiling breach now moved up to June 1, the Fed might not have the luxury of waiting. Take What the Markets Give You. [] [] JEFFRY TURNMIRE’S MORNING MONSTER 🎥 Will the Sideways Never End? The markets have been chopping in a narrow, sideways range for weeks on end. And if you move the lens back a little further, you’ll see that the S&P 500 is trading at the same level it traded 2 years ago. On tomorrow’s “[Morning Monster]( I’ll cover what could push us out of the range. Plus, I’ll see what stocks look set to pop or drop on the day. We’ll be rolling at 9:15am ET. Make sure you join me [right here](. Jeffry [] [] TOM BUSBY How to Use Trends in Volatile Markets Trading with the trend… In a bull market, it can be your shortcut to making lots of money really fast… But most people think it isn’t even possible in a volatile market. That’s simply not true. See, while trading trends can be trickier in a bear market, they can still be a trader’s best friend when it comes to bolstering one key strategy. And I’m about to give you the strategy, PLUS three stocks you should be looking to use these techniques on right away. [Join me right here](. [] [] GUY COHEN Tepid Trading Post Earnings The major indices are all pretty much where they were 12 months ago, and with this earnings season limping into its last few days, the most likely outcome for the summer is more tepid performance. The Markets Last week I said that choppy conditions were likely to continue through earnings, and that was a good call. I also mentioned that the bearish setups generally looked tidier than the bullish ones, and this week, we can see that there are actually more bearish setups than bullish. Market Outlook Again, with some notable exceptions, earnings have been pretty dull and I expect they will continue in that vein. Moribund earnings seasons are typically followed by moribund conditions. The Main Indices The S&P is moving sideways but it’s not looking particularly ‘compelling’. The Invesco QQQ Trust ([QQQ]( looks, if anything, a bit overbought. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF ([IWM]( looks like the path of least resistance is down. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust ([DIA]( looks wobbly as it bounces just on top of its 50-dma. Until next Monday, Guy [] [] [] MAY 15 2023 Goldilocks Rates and the Three Bears [] [] [] DON YOCHAM Real Fed Funds Between the most aggressive rate hike campaign in history and an easing pace of inflation, it looks the Fed Funds rate is finally in neutral territory. [] Like Goldilocks’ porridge, when you subtract inflation of 4.96% (the latest year-over-year increase for the PCE deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) from the Fed Funds rate, the Federal Open Market Committee seems to have landed at not too hot and not too cold. And while the Fed takes a wait-and-see approach, the question becomes how soon before fighting recession becomes the priority. Job Openings have tumbled… [] The housing continues to contract with construction down… [] Fewer new homes being constructed… [] And plans for new homes on the decline… [] Bank sector credit tightening is also taking a bite. Consumer credit has turned lower… [] And industrial loans have turned lower, as well… [] For the better part of 2 years, retail sales have remained relatively stable having plateaued at COVID stimulus highs… [] We’ll get an updated read on this stat tomorrow, with the median forecast expecting Retail Sales to increase by 0.8% during April. But with the debt ceiling breach now moved up to June 1, the Fed might not have the luxury of waiting. Take What the Markets Give You. [] [] JEFFRY TURNMIRE’S MORNING MONSTER 🎥 Will the Sideways Never End? The markets have been chopping in a narrow, sideways range for weeks on end. And if you move the lens back a little further, you’ll see that the S&P 500 is trading at the same level it traded 2 years ago. On tomorrow’s “[Morning Monster]( I’ll cover what could push us out of the range. Plus, I’ll see what stocks look set to pop or drop on the day. We’ll be rolling at 9:15am ET. Make sure you join me [right here](. Jeffry [] [] TOM BUSBY How to Use Trends in Volatile Markets Trading with the trend… In a bull market, it can be your shortcut to making lots of money really fast… But most people think it isn’t even possible in a volatile market. That’s simply not true. See, while trading trends can be trickier in a bear market, they can still be a trader’s best friend when it comes to bolstering one key strategy. And I’m about to give you the strategy, PLUS three stocks you should be looking to use these techniques on right away. [Join me right here](. [] [] GUY COHEN Tepid Trading Post Earnings The major indices are all pretty much where they were 12 months ago, and with this earnings season limping into its last few days, the most likely outcome for the summer is more tepid performance. The Markets Last week I said that choppy conditions were likely to continue through earnings, and that was a good call. I also mentioned that the bearish setups generally looked tidier than the bullish ones, and this week, we can see that there are actually more bearish setups than bullish. Market Outlook Again, with some notable exceptions, earnings have been pretty dull and I expect they will continue in that vein. Moribund earnings seasons are typically followed by moribund conditions. The Main Indices The S&P is moving sideways but it’s not looking particularly ‘compelling’. The Invesco QQQ Trust ([QQQ]( looks, if anything, a bit overbought. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF ([IWM]( looks like the path of least resistance is down. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust ([DIA]( looks wobbly as it bounces just on top of its 50-dma. Until next Monday, Guy [] [] [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 495 Town Plaza | Ponte Vedra | FL | 32081 [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 495 Town Plaza | Ponte Vedra | FL | 32081 [Prosperity Pub](