The Party’s Over for the U.S. Dollar

[] [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] APR 4 2023 The Party’s Over for the U.S. Dollar [] [] DON YOCHAM 3 Pillars of Exorbitant Privilege France and China have agreed to pay for LNG in yuan. Brazil and China have agreed to settle trade in yuan and reals. Russia and India will settle trade in rupees. And even the original gangster of petro-dollar trade, Saudi Arabia, has abandoned dollar-only payments for oil. The world is aligning away from U.S. dollar dominance and towards something much different. And because of the realignment, the lifestyle Americans enjoyed at the expense of the rest of the world is no longer possible. A French Guy Said So That lifestyle began with the [Bretton Woods Agreement]( established in 1944. This system pegged the U.S. dollar to gold at a fixed exchange rate – and pegged other currencies to the dollar. The privileged position that emerged helped the U.S. dominate the international monetary system. Soon, our greenbacks became the preferred currency for international transactions. Countries held large amounts of U.S. dollars in their central bank reserves, extending that privilege further by making the U.S. dollar the de facto reserve currency of the world. In the 60s, French Minister of Finance Valéry Giscard made note of that advantage by stating: “The United States has an exorbitant privilege to turn its dollar into a worldwide currency with no restriction. That’s something that no other country can do. But it’s something that is in the process of ending.” Giscard was wrong on that last point. The subsequent petro-dollar agreements extended that American privilege a few more decades. In the early 1970s, the U.S. government negotiated with Saudi Arabia and other major oil-producing countries to price oil in U.S. dollars. This forced countries around the world to hold U.S. dollars to purchase oil. And greater demand for the dollar gave the U.S. significant leverage in global financial markets. But Giscard was right to label that privilege “exorbitant.” And a 1, and a 2, and a 3… Privilege #1: The U.S. could borrow in its own currency and run persistent trade deficits. Other countries, meanwhile, had to accumulate U.S. dollar reserves to ensure they could pay for imports and service foreign debt. When they didn’t, their currencies and economies tended to implode. Privilege #2: The U.S. could also export inflation. As the U.S. Federal Reserve increased the money supply, the resulting inflation forced countries to buy more U.S. dollars to maintain their currency pegs and purchase oil. So many dollars floating outside American borders helped spread inflation outside those borders as well This spared the American consumer from the full consequences of U.S. inflationary policy. Privilege #3: The U.S. could engage in economic warfare at low cost. Since all trade was conducted in dollars, the U.S. could easily cut off access to the U.S. financial system and freeze assets held in dollars. So, when anyone challenged that privilege, the U.S. could use that privilege to defend it with economic sanctions. These sanctions came at almost little to no cost to Americans. Combined, these “Pillars of Privilege” defined the American lifestyle for seven decades. But Americans can no longer spread the cost of deficit spending, currency debasement, and force outside of U.S. borders. Because these pillars, like everything else, have given way to entropy. I’ll tell you more about that tomorrow. Take What the Markets Give You. [] P.S. No “Roundtable” tomorrow, but we’ll begin again April 12 at a new time: 11am ET. My guests that week will be Garrett {NAME} and Jack Carter – always crowd favorites, so make a note to [join us here]( then. [] [] JEFFRY TURNMIRE I’m Sharing My Private Trade Tracker [>> Go Here to Get Your Copy <<]( [] [] SCOTT WELSH Housing is Hot (PHM) For a few years now, housing has been hard to figure out. It kind of makes sense that houses would have some interest during the pandemic, but holy mackerel, prices went ballistic. Typical houses in the suburbs became tulips during the Tulip Bubble. It was crazy. And then mortgage rates started to rise. Surely, that would kill the housing market. Time to get Short! Nope. While the housing sector did fall during the Bear Market like everything else, there’s been a massive resurgence. Wait, did mortgages drop? Not really. Then why are they soaring? Because inflation is slightly getting better? It doesn’t really make sense. But homebuilders are flying. Take Pulte Group ([PHM]( for example: [] As you can see, PHM has been soaring in 2023. Now it’s poised to make a new high (it’s already bullishly above the long-term moving average). A break above $60.90 could lead to a nice run. Housing is hot again. It’s one of the best-moving sectors in the world. And PHM could continue that trend. Happy trading, Scott [] [] JEFFRY TURNMIRE’S 30 MINUTES OF AWESOME 🎥 Why Big Tech Still Has Room to Run… and More Have you been feeling left out of the Big Tech rally? During today’s “30 Minutes of Awesome,” I’ll talk about why I think this may only be the first part of the move – and why Big Tech can squeeze higher. Plus, have you noticed that oil quit dropping after a year of volatile decline? There are signs that oil is rounding the bottom – I’ll touch on that, too. Plus… I plan to go over YOUR requested tickers for at least 30 Minutes! And That's why we call it what we do! It all starts at 5pm ET. [Go right here to join me!]( See you there, Jeffry [] [] [] APR 4 2023 The Party’s Over for the U.S. Dollar [] [] DON YOCHAM 3 Pillars of Exorbitant Privilege France and China have agreed to pay for LNG in yuan. Brazil and China have agreed to settle trade in yuan and reals. Russia and India will settle trade in rupees. And even the original gangster of petro-dollar trade, Saudi Arabia, has abandoned dollar-only payments for oil. The world is aligning away from U.S. dollar dominance and towards something much different. And because of the realignment, the lifestyle Americans enjoyed at the expense of the rest of the world is no longer possible. A French Guy Said So That lifestyle began with the [Bretton Woods Agreement]( established in 1944. This system pegged the U.S. dollar to gold at a fixed exchange rate – and pegged other currencies to the dollar. The privileged position that emerged helped the U.S. dominate the international monetary system. Soon, our greenbacks became the preferred currency for international transactions. Countries held large amounts of U.S. dollars in their central bank reserves, extending that privilege further by making the U.S. dollar the de facto reserve currency of the world. In the 60s, French Minister of Finance Valéry Giscard made note of that advantage by stating: “The United States has an exorbitant privilege to turn its dollar into a worldwide currency with no restriction. That’s something that no other country can do. But it’s something that is in the process of ending.” Giscard was wrong on that last point. The subsequent petro-dollar agreements extended that American privilege a few more decades. In the early 1970s, the U.S. government negotiated with Saudi Arabia and other major oil-producing countries to price oil in U.S. dollars. This forced countries around the world to hold U.S. dollars to purchase oil. And greater demand for the dollar gave the U.S. significant leverage in global financial markets. But Giscard was right to label that privilege “exorbitant.” And a 1, and a 2, and a 3… Privilege #1: The U.S. could borrow in its own currency and run persistent trade deficits. Other countries, meanwhile, had to accumulate U.S. dollar reserves to ensure they could pay for imports and service foreign debt. When they didn’t, their currencies and economies tended to implode. Privilege #2: The U.S. could also export inflation. As the U.S. Federal Reserve increased the money supply, the resulting inflation forced countries to buy more U.S. dollars to maintain their currency pegs and purchase oil. So many dollars floating outside American borders helped spread inflation outside those borders as well This spared the American consumer from the full consequences of U.S. inflationary policy. Privilege #3: The U.S. could engage in economic warfare at low cost. Since all trade was conducted in dollars, the U.S. could easily cut off access to the U.S. financial system and freeze assets held in dollars. So, when anyone challenged that privilege, the U.S. could use that privilege to defend it with economic sanctions. These sanctions came at almost little to no cost to Americans. Combined, these “Pillars of Privilege” defined the American lifestyle for seven decades. But Americans can no longer spread the cost of deficit spending, currency debasement, and force outside of U.S. borders. Because these pillars, like everything else, have given way to entropy. I’ll tell you more about that tomorrow. Take What the Markets Give You. [] P.S. No “Roundtable” tomorrow, but we’ll begin again April 12 at a new time: 11am ET. My guests that week will be Garrett {NAME} and Jack Carter – always crowd favorites, so make a note to [join us here]( then. [] [] JEFFRY TURNMIRE I’m Sharing My Private Trade Tracker [>> Go Here to Get Your Copy <<]( [] [] SCOTT WELSH Housing is Hot (PHM) For a few years now, housing has been hard to figure out. It kind of makes sense that houses would have some interest during the pandemic, but holy mackerel, prices went ballistic. Typical houses in the suburbs became tulips during the Tulip Bubble. It was crazy. And then mortgage rates started to rise. Surely, that would kill the housing market. Time to get Short! Nope. While the housing sector did fall during the Bear Market like everything else, there’s been a massive resurgence. Wait, did mortgages drop? Not really. Then why are they soaring? Because inflation is slightly getting better? It doesn’t really make sense. But homebuilders are flying. Take Pulte Group ([PHM]( for example: [] As you can see, PHM has been soaring in 2023. Now it’s poised to make a new high (it’s already bullishly above the long-term moving average). A break above $60.90 could lead to a nice run. Housing is hot again. It’s one of the best-moving sectors in the world. And PHM could continue that trend. Happy trading, Scott [] [] JEFFRY TURNMIRE’S 30 MINUTES OF AWESOME 🎥 Why Big Tech Still Has Room to Run… and More Have you been feeling left out of the Big Tech rally? During today’s “30 Minutes of Awesome,” I’ll talk about why I think this may only be the first part of the move – and why Big Tech can squeeze higher. Plus, have you noticed that oil quit dropping after a year of volatile decline? There are signs that oil is rounding the bottom – I’ll touch on that, too. Plus… I plan to go over YOUR requested tickers for at least 30 Minutes! And That's why we call it what we do! It all starts at 5pm ET. [Go right here to join me!]( See you there, Jeffry [] [] [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 495 Town Plaza | Ponte Vedra | FL | 32081 [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 495 Town Plaza | Ponte Vedra | FL | 32081 [Prosperity Pub](