What's Next for the S&P? The Fed's Jackson Hole Meeting

[] where the rich and powerful frolic as they make decisions that will move markets [] [] [] [] Since the S&P Futures (/ES) bottomed out two Mondays ago on August 8th, they've sailed higher pretty much unopposed. I've previously given you key levels to keep an eye on, and so far, the /ES futures have passed all the tests for bullish momentum. There was a brief hesitation at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, where the market experienced some brief rejection for about two days, but after breaking through that, we've had nothing but green candle days. Now, with a daily close above the 0.786 level under our belt, everyone’s asking, “What’s next?” For me, the next big catalyst event will be the Fed's annual Jackson Hole meeting, which runs from this Thursday through Saturday. Wait, What Meeting? You might have heard that the Fed is off living the high life and vacationing in August. And thats somewhat true. This meeting in Jackson Hole isn’t the regular FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting that we’re used to having most months, where the Fed announces what they're doing with interest rates. This will be the Fed's once-per-year Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where the bigwigs from the Fed will rub elbows with policymakers, academics, and economists from around the world. But don’t worry, there’s also going to be plenty of time for our favorite bankers and politicians to go fly fishing and horseback riding. I know you wouldn’t want them to overwork themselves. Unlike the 8-per-year FOMC meetings that we’re used to, Jackson Hole is an unofficial Fed meeting. But just because it's unofficial doesn't mean it won't carry any weight. You can bet your bottom dollar that all eyes will be on Powell's speech this Friday at 10 AM Eastern. Why Should You Care? Despite the fact that Jackson Hole is an “unofficial” meeting, markets will be on edge, listening for any hint about what the Fed's thinking and whether we can expect any rate cut at the September meeting, which is scheduled for September 17-18. If Powell confirms a rate cut for September, it would be the first rate cut since March 2020, right at the start of the pandemic. Back then, the Fed quickly slashed rates by 1.5% — from 1.75% to 0.25% — in two back-to-back moves in early March 2020. But remember, that’s the same Fed that spent the next two years in denial about the quick acceleration of inflation, dismissing it as "transitory." They then embarked on the quickest rate hike campaign in history, taking the base rate from 0.25% to the current 5.5% in 11 rate hikes, the last of which happened in July 2023. So, what happens next? Powell's words on Friday could give us a clue, but as always, it’s the market’s reaction to those words that we should be looking out for. Stay sharp and keep an eye on the market’s reaction Friday after the 10am Eastern announcement. — Geof Smith P.S. 57x better performance than the S&P in the past 3 months? [You’ve got to see it to believe it.]( [] [] Since the S&P Futures (/ES) bottomed out two Mondays ago on August 8th, they've sailed higher pretty much unopposed. I've previously given you key levels to keep an eye on, and so far, the /ES futures have passed all the tests for bullish momentum. There was a brief hesitation at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, where the market experienced some brief rejection for about two days, but after breaking through that, we've had nothing but green candle days. Now, with a daily close above the 0.786 level under our belt, everyone’s asking, “What’s next?” For me, the next big catalyst event will be the Fed's annual Jackson Hole meeting, which runs from this Thursday through Saturday. Wait, What Meeting? You might have heard that the Fed is off living the high life and vacationing in August. And thats somewhat true. This meeting in Jackson Hole isn’t the regular FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting that we’re used to having most months, where the Fed announces what they're doing with interest rates. This will be the Fed's once-per-year Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where the bigwigs from the Fed will rub elbows with policymakers, academics, and economists from around the world. But don’t worry, there’s also going to be plenty of time for our favorite bankers and politicians to go fly fishing and horseback riding. I know you wouldn’t want them to overwork themselves. Unlike the 8-per-year FOMC meetings that we’re used to, Jackson Hole is an unofficial Fed meeting. But just because it's unofficial doesn't mean it won't carry any weight. You can bet your bottom dollar that all eyes will be on Powell's speech this Friday at 10 AM Eastern. Why Should You Care? Despite the fact that Jackson Hole is an “unofficial” meeting, markets will be on edge, listening for any hint about what the Fed's thinking and whether we can expect any rate cut at the September meeting, which is scheduled for September 17-18. If Powell confirms a rate cut for September, it would be the first rate cut since March 2020, right at the start of the pandemic. Back then, the Fed quickly slashed rates by 1.5% — from 1.75% to 0.25% — in two back-to-back moves in early March 2020. But remember, that’s the same Fed that spent the next two years in denial about the quick acceleration of inflation, dismissing it as "transitory." They then embarked on the quickest rate hike campaign in history, taking the base rate from 0.25% to the current 5.5% in 11 rate hikes, the last of which happened in July 2023. So, what happens next? Powell's words on Friday could give us a clue, but as always, it’s the market’s reaction to those words that we should be looking out for. Stay sharp and keep an eye on the market’s reaction Friday after the 10am Eastern announcement. — Geof Smith P.S. 57x better performance than the S&P in the past 3 months? [You’ve got to see it to believe it.]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](