Sell In May and Go Away? (not quite)

[] summer always has a chance of being slow [] [] [] [] I’m back — and talk about timing the market! Looks like I picked the exact right time to take my vacation. When I left on July 16th, the S&P was hitting all-time highs, the Dow would hit its all-time high two days later, and the Nasdaq was still hovering near the all-time high it hit back on July 10th. But in the 10 or so days I've been gone, the S&P slid as much as 5%, the Dow sank almost 4%, and the Nasdaq — powerhouse that it has been most of the year — narrowly avoided official "bear territory," dipping just below 10%. Thankfully, all three indexes already seem to have started their bounce back up. So what gives with the markets? And how did I time my trip so perfectly? Well, part of it is luck, the other part is knowing the markets. Below is a chart of the seasonality of the S&P 500, using the stock ticker SPY which is an ETF that tracks the S&P 500. The red line in the chart below shows the past 20 years, and the green line shows the past 7 years. [] You can see the S&P historically tends to be weak at the end of July. It doesn’t happen every year, but it’s very common. If you look at the past 18 years, the S&P is up 9 and down 9 in July, so it’s quite literally a 50/50 shot that we would have had the dip we just experienced. Right now, the S&P opened the month at 5534, and we’re trading at 5505, so it’s down a little and won’t take much to get it positive again. Many traders use July to buy stocks in anticipation of the end of the year, but this is an election year, so things can get squirrely. This week will be interesting — we have the Fed meeting on Wednesday, Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, and the big tech earnings from MSFT, META, AMZN, AAPL, and INTC throughout the week. So, the week could be volatile, to put it mildly. You’ve probably heard the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.” There’s always a little dip in May, but as I’ve shown you with the above chart, the real downturn usually happens from July into August. September is historically the worst-performing month in the market during the year, but October can scare folks. So, what's happening right now? The S&P, the Dow, and the Nasdaq are experiencing what we call a seasonal dip. This is normal and happens almost every year around this time. Understanding these patterns helps us to navigate the markets better. While the recent market slide might seem alarming, it’s actually part of a broader seasonal pattern that savvy traders watch for. So, don’t panic — use this time to evaluate opportunities and get ready for the end-of-year rally. — Geof Smith [] [] I’m back — and talk about timing the market! Looks like I picked the exact right time to take my vacation. When I left on July 16th, the S&P was hitting all-time highs, the Dow would hit its all-time high two days later, and the Nasdaq was still hovering near the all-time high it hit back on July 10th. But in the 10 or so days I've been gone, the S&P slid as much as 5%, the Dow sank almost 4%, and the Nasdaq — powerhouse that it has been most of the year — narrowly avoided official "bear territory," dipping just below 10%. Thankfully, all three indexes already seem to have started their bounce back up. So what gives with the markets? And how did I time my trip so perfectly? Well, part of it is luck, the other part is knowing the markets. Below is a chart of the seasonality of the S&P 500, using the stock ticker SPY which is an ETF that tracks the S&P 500. The red line in the chart below shows the past 20 years, and the green line shows the past 7 years. [] You can see the S&P historically tends to be weak at the end of July. It doesn’t happen every year, but it’s very common. If you look at the past 18 years, the S&P is up 9 and down 9 in July, so it’s quite literally a 50/50 shot that we would have had the dip we just experienced. Right now, the S&P opened the month at 5534, and we’re trading at 5505, so it’s down a little and won’t take much to get it positive again. Many traders use July to buy stocks in anticipation of the end of the year, but this is an election year, so things can get squirrely. This week will be interesting — we have the Fed meeting on Wednesday, Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, and the big tech earnings from MSFT, META, AMZN, AAPL, and INTC throughout the week. So, the week could be volatile, to put it mildly. You’ve probably heard the old saying, “Sell in May and go away.” There’s always a little dip in May, but as I’ve shown you with the above chart, the real downturn usually happens from July into August. September is historically the worst-performing month in the market during the year, but October can scare folks. So, what's happening right now? The S&P, the Dow, and the Nasdaq are experiencing what we call a seasonal dip. This is normal and happens almost every year around this time. Understanding these patterns helps us to navigate the markets better. While the recent market slide might seem alarming, it’s actually part of a broader seasonal pattern that savvy traders watch for. So, don’t panic — use this time to evaluate opportunities and get ready for the end-of-year rally. — Geof Smith [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](