The Time I Moved the Market

[] (and the lesson it taught me) [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] JULY 19, 2024 [] [] PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK The Time I Moved the Market (and what it taught me) The way the market’s been handing traders their heads this week had me thinking about back in 2000, during the Bush/Gore election cliffhanger. Anyone remember the “hanging chad” situation and the famous photos of this bleary-eyed gentleman closely examining ballots? [] Anyway, back during that whole debacle I was trading the S&P and the QQQ. And the market went up and down every time a hanging chad was found or a ballot was disqualified. It was about as volatile as things could get. I actually had one day where I lost over $23,000 in a single day. And when I walked over to Tom Busby’s office to tell him my bad news, he just smiled and said, “Well, I just lost $50,000. Let’s go play golf!” Now, I don’t really play golf, but at the time I was willing to do anything to get my mind off the losses. In any case, we hit the ball for a while and when I got home that evening, I said to my wife, “Give me a stock to buy. Whatever comes to mind.” She just slid a catalog at me across the table and said, “They have really good clothes!” As I scanned the front page of the J. Jill catalog, my eyes came to rest on the tagline at the bottom which read “Clothes for the affluent woman.” I had to look over and ask my wife, “Are we affluent?” She just replied with, “Well… I just bought some of their clothes and they’re really nice.” So the next day when I got back into the office, I looked up the company and found out that it was a public stock under the ticker JILL — and lucky me, it was only trading at $9.80 a share. I thought, “Eh, what the heck. I’ll just buy 1000 shares.” So I put in my order and walked away… come back a little while later and the stock is trading at $12.50. Holy Moses! The thing went up almost $3 a share in an hour. I’m up almost $3,000, right? Think again… Turns out that I put in a market order. And while I didn’t know it at the time, JILL was a thinly-traded stock. So it was my order and my order alone that ran that stock all the way up from $9.80 to $12.50. See, with a market order, you get filled at the best (lowest) price first. But once those sellers have all sold to you, you get filled at the next highest price. That repeats over and over again, with the price going up each time you buy from all the available sellers at a particular price. Because most stocks trade hundreds of thousands or millions of shares per day, there’s usually plenty of sellers for small-time traders like you or I to buy from at the current price. As a result, it’s usually only Wall Street “whales” with massive, multi-million dollar orders that end up moving the market. But on this particular stock, I was the “whale.” See, I didn’t know it at the time, but the average daily volume on JILL at the time was just 30,000 shares. So when I placed my buy order for 1000 shares at “market price”, I ended up running the price all the way up to $12.50 — a nearly 30% rise — in just minutes. When I realized what happened, my eyes went wide and my heart sank. And that’s today’s lesson. It cost me a bundle, but I’m sharing today free of charge: You have to look at the average daily volume of a stock before you place an order — especially when you’re placing a market order. Thankfully, the story has a happy ending. I set several GTC (good-till-cancelled) sell orders for 100 shares every $2 all the way up to $22 and eventually got out of the stock at a profit. Now, don’t go looking up JILL stock to see how my expensive mistake looked on a chart. Thankfully that mistake is in the dustbin of history. See, J. Jill was taken private by Talbots in 2006, erasing any and all trading history. In 2017, the company went public again, but none of that previous history shows up on charts. The furthest back you can go is March of 2017. In any case, it was an important lesson for me — and as you can see, one of those stories I’ll never forget. Always check the average daily volume before placing a market order.… or any order for that matter. It’s a simple step that can save you from making an expensive mistake — because they don’t always have a happy ending like this one. — Geof Smith [] [] This strategy only needs TINY moves in a stock… And it’s off to the races, targeting massive double and triple digit wins! Nate Tucci has perfected the art leveraging massive wins from tiny moves in a stock — sometimes a little as 1% or less! And his track record speaks for itself, averaging 237% gains on his winners with a 54% win rate If you’re looking to buy-and-hold, here’s a way to do it. Just wait for the stock you like to be deeply on sale. (Perhaps you’ve heard that before from someone in Omaha.) But it can be a pain to look through financial records. Which ones actually matter? (It depends). Which ones aren’t made up? (We’ll never know.) Because it’s too much work to find out, experts just gave up and told us we can’t time the market. Not so fast. Let’s say you like organic food. It’s the wave of the future–or at least it’s a wave that will be supported into the future by a loyal group of healthy people. In that case, you might like Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM). It’s a place to go to get good, healthy food. And back in 2020, it fell like everything else. Here’s the chart: [] In March 2020, it was down around $14. But more importantly, it was down below the lower Band of the 800 period Bollinger Band™. That definitely qualifies as “on sale”. So, how did we do if we bought our favorite company when it was below “fair value” and below the lower Band? [] SFM is now trading at $82.71. That’s a compounded annual growth rate of about 55% per year. Buying a good company at a great price apparently still works. Happy trading, — Scott Welsh [] [] [] [] JULY 19, 2024 [] [] PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK The Time I Moved the Market (and what it taught me) The way the market’s been handing traders their heads this week had me thinking about back in 2000, during the Bush/Gore election cliffhanger. Anyone remember the “hanging chad” situation and the famous photos of this bleary-eyed gentleman closely examining ballots? [] Anyway, back during that whole debacle I was trading the S&P and the QQQ. And the market went up and down every time a hanging chad was found or a ballot was disqualified. It was about as volatile as things could get. I actually had one day where I lost over $23,000 in a single day. And when I walked over to Tom Busby’s office to tell him my bad news, he just smiled and said, “Well, I just lost $50,000. Let’s go play golf!” Now, I don’t really play golf, but at the time I was willing to do anything to get my mind off the losses. In any case, we hit the ball for a while and when I got home that evening, I said to my wife, “Give me a stock to buy. Whatever comes to mind.” She just slid a catalog at me across the table and said, “They have really good clothes!” As I scanned the front page of the J. Jill catalog, my eyes came to rest on the tagline at the bottom which read “Clothes for the affluent woman.” I had to look over and ask my wife, “Are we affluent?” She just replied with, “Well… I just bought some of their clothes and they’re really nice.” So the next day when I got back into the office, I looked up the company and found out that it was a public stock under the ticker JILL — and lucky me, it was only trading at $9.80 a share. I thought, “Eh, what the heck. I’ll just buy 1000 shares.” So I put in my order and walked away… come back a little while later and the stock is trading at $12.50. Holy Moses! The thing went up almost $3 a share in an hour. I’m up almost $3,000, right? Think again… Turns out that I put in a market order. And while I didn’t know it at the time, JILL was a thinly-traded stock. So it was my order and my order alone that ran that stock all the way up from $9.80 to $12.50. See, with a market order, you get filled at the best (lowest) price first. But once those sellers have all sold to you, you get filled at the next highest price. That repeats over and over again, with the price going up each time you buy from all the available sellers at a particular price. Because most stocks trade hundreds of thousands or millions of shares per day, there’s usually plenty of sellers for small-time traders like you or I to buy from at the current price. As a result, it’s usually only Wall Street “whales” with massive, multi-million dollar orders that end up moving the market. But on this particular stock, I was the “whale.” See, I didn’t know it at the time, but the average daily volume on JILL at the time was just 30,000 shares. So when I placed my buy order for 1000 shares at “market price”, I ended up running the price all the way up to $12.50 — a nearly 30% rise — in just minutes. When I realized what happened, my eyes went wide and my heart sank. And that’s today’s lesson. It cost me a bundle, but I’m sharing today free of charge: You have to look at the average daily volume of a stock before you place an order — especially when you’re placing a market order. Thankfully, the story has a happy ending. I set several GTC (good-till-cancelled) sell orders for 100 shares every $2 all the way up to $22 and eventually got out of the stock at a profit. Now, don’t go looking up JILL stock to see how my expensive mistake looked on a chart. Thankfully that mistake is in the dustbin of history. See, J. Jill was taken private by Talbots in 2006, erasing any and all trading history. In 2017, the company went public again, but none of that previous history shows up on charts. The furthest back you can go is March of 2017. In any case, it was an important lesson for me — and as you can see, one of those stories I’ll never forget. Always check the average daily volume before placing a market order.… or any order for that matter. It’s a simple step that can save you from making an expensive mistake — because they don’t always have a happy ending like this one. — Geof Smith [] [] This strategy only needs TINY moves in a stock… And it’s off to the races, targeting massive double and triple digit wins! Nate Tucci has perfected the art leveraging massive wins from tiny moves in a stock — sometimes a little as 1% or less! And his track record speaks for itself, averaging 237% gains on his winners with a 54% win rate If you’re looking to buy-and-hold, here’s a way to do it. Just wait for the stock you like to be deeply on sale. (Perhaps you’ve heard that before from someone in Omaha.) But it can be a pain to look through financial records. Which ones actually matter? (It depends). Which ones aren’t made up? (We’ll never know.) Because it’s too much work to find out, experts just gave up and told us we can’t time the market. Not so fast. Let’s say you like organic food. It’s the wave of the future–or at least it’s a wave that will be supported into the future by a loyal group of healthy people. In that case, you might like Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM). It’s a place to go to get good, healthy food. And back in 2020, it fell like everything else. Here’s the chart: [] In March 2020, it was down around $14. But more importantly, it was down below the lower Band of the 800 period Bollinger Band™. That definitely qualifies as “on sale”. So, how did we do if we bought our favorite company when it was below “fair value” and below the lower Band? [] SFM is now trading at $82.71. That’s a compounded annual growth rate of about 55% per year. Buying a good company at a great price apparently still works. Happy trading, — Scott Welsh [] [] [] [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](