Commercial Real Estate: A Looming Bust or an Accelerated Trend?

[] How decades-old trends and the pandemic are reshaping commercial real estate [] [] [] [] For a while now, my fellow trader, Jeffry Turnmire, has been warning of a looming commercial real estate bust, mostly due to changing work habits which have left banks with outstanding loans on buildings that can’t be filled now. So when I read an article on office vacancies having recently broken the 20% mark for the first time ever, it got my attention. Talk of the office and its pandemic-powered apocalypse might have died down, but the sector’s troubles haven’t. If anything, four years after the pandemic’s onset, office vacancies are growing. I don’t follow real estate all that closely, but to me, this doesn't sound like a recent problem. If you look at most of the vacancies, they are in the old buildings built back in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s. You could even argue that it extends to buildings built in the 90’s. Back then, they were building office buildings with big offices, and banks and S&L’s (Savings & Loan associations) were financing buildings like crazy. But companies were discovering they didn’t need that much space, so they started building smaller, more modern offices. This trend has been developing for decades, and the pandemic just accelerated it significantly, but it's been ongoing for quite some time. The rising vacancy rates aren’t just a product of the pandemic but a continuation of a trend that’s been unfolding over several decades. The shift towards more efficient and smaller office spaces began long before COVID-19 and has been driven by evolving business needs and advancements in technology. The pandemic acted as a catalyst, accelerating the existing trend as remote work became possible for a large segment of the workforce and therefore became more widely accepted. Older office buildings, which used to be a sign of corporate success, are now pretty much outdated and can't meet the needs of modern businesses and employees who prefer flexible work setups. Plus, the cost of maintaining and repurposing these old buildings has become a big problem for property owners and banks. The building boom from way back has left us with way more office space then we need right now. To wrap things up, while the pandemic has certainly added to the current commercial real estate issues, it’s important to see the long-term trends. Recognizing these patterns can help us make smarter decisions as traders and investors, especially when it comes to predicting how these changes might affect the overall economy. [] — Geof Smith P.S. This year has been a doozy for stock splits with huge names like NVDA, WMT… and now AVGO about to split… But if you’re planning to trade this split, [Jack Carter has a message you need to hear before you do anything!]( [] [] For a while now, my fellow trader, Jeffry Turnmire, has been warning of a looming commercial real estate bust, mostly due to changing work habits which have left banks with outstanding loans on buildings that can’t be filled now. So when I read an article on office vacancies having recently broken the 20% mark for the first time ever, it got my attention. Talk of the office and its pandemic-powered apocalypse might have died down, but the sector’s troubles haven’t. If anything, four years after the pandemic’s onset, office vacancies are growing. I don’t follow real estate all that closely, but to me, this doesn't sound like a recent problem. If you look at most of the vacancies, they are in the old buildings built back in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’s. You could even argue that it extends to buildings built in the 90’s. Back then, they were building office buildings with big offices, and banks and S&L’s (Savings & Loan associations) were financing buildings like crazy. But companies were discovering they didn’t need that much space, so they started building smaller, more modern offices. This trend has been developing for decades, and the pandemic just accelerated it significantly, but it's been ongoing for quite some time. The rising vacancy rates aren’t just a product of the pandemic but a continuation of a trend that’s been unfolding over several decades. The shift towards more efficient and smaller office spaces began long before COVID-19 and has been driven by evolving business needs and advancements in technology. The pandemic acted as a catalyst, accelerating the existing trend as remote work became possible for a large segment of the workforce and therefore became more widely accepted. Older office buildings, which used to be a sign of corporate success, are now pretty much outdated and can't meet the needs of modern businesses and employees who prefer flexible work setups. Plus, the cost of maintaining and repurposing these old buildings has become a big problem for property owners and banks. The building boom from way back has left us with way more office space then we need right now. To wrap things up, while the pandemic has certainly added to the current commercial real estate issues, it’s important to see the long-term trends. Recognizing these patterns can help us make smarter decisions as traders and investors, especially when it comes to predicting how these changes might affect the overall economy. [] — Geof Smith P.S. This year has been a doozy for stock splits with huge names like NVDA, WMT… and now AVGO about to split… But if you’re planning to trade this split, [Jack Carter has a message you need to hear before you do anything!]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](