Waiting on The Fed (and other things)

[] it’s a busy week for economic news [] [] [] [] Just two days ago, I suggested that we needed to hold our breath and wait for a series of crucial economic reports — CPI, PPI, oil, bonds and the much-anticipated Fed decision on interest rates. Now that the dust has settled, let's dive into what we've seen and what it might mean for the next stage of the market. Fed’s Reaction and Interest Rates Yesterday, the Fed's reaction was a bit cryptic. They didn’t explicitly say it, but the signals are clear: rates are likely to remain steady for the rest of the year, or there might even be another hike, but definitely not a cut. This has been well-received by the bond market, as evidenced by the latest 30-year bond auction coming in below the last auction, indicating declining interest rates. Inflation Reality Check With the CPI report coming in lower, many are quick to cheer that inflation is slowing down. But let's be clear — inflation is still climbing, just at a slower pace. We saw a 3.4% increase over last year, marginally down from 3.5%. So, while it's not accelerating as quickly, it's still rising. This subtle difference is why we saw the market initially spike on the news, only to pull back shortly after. Market Performance In terms of market performance, the Dow has shown continued weakness, being the only index that dipped below its pre-CPI and Fed announcement levels. On the other hand, the tech sector is buzzing again, spurred by the latest AI developments from AAPL. This has kept the Nasdaq and other tech-heavy indices relatively stable. Gold and the Dollar Gold saw a pullback as the dollar gained some ground, but I remain optimistic about its trajectory. The World Gold Council reported positive inflows into global gold ETFs for the first time in a while, indicating a renewed demand. This could signal a potential rise in gold prices moving forward. Putting It All Together So, what’s the takeaway here? The market is still navigating through a complex landscape of mixed signals. While inflation isn’t accelerating as quickly, it's still rising, and the Fed seems poised to keep interest rates steady or even consider a hike — even if they haven’t explicitly said it. The tech sector remains a hot spot, and there's cautious optimism around gold. As always, stay tuned and trade smart. I’ll keep an eye on these trends and how they evolve in the coming weeks. — Geof Smith P.S. Did you miss Stephen and Nate’s trading challenge? [See what they’ve cooked up here](. [] [] Just two days ago, I suggested that we needed to hold our breath and wait for a series of crucial economic reports — CPI, PPI, oil, bonds and the much-anticipated Fed decision on interest rates. Now that the dust has settled, let's dive into what we've seen and what it might mean for the next stage of the market. Fed’s Reaction and Interest Rates Yesterday, the Fed's reaction was a bit cryptic. They didn’t explicitly say it, but the signals are clear: rates are likely to remain steady for the rest of the year, or there might even be another hike, but definitely not a cut. This has been well-received by the bond market, as evidenced by the latest 30-year bond auction coming in below the last auction, indicating declining interest rates. Inflation Reality Check With the CPI report coming in lower, many are quick to cheer that inflation is slowing down. But let's be clear — inflation is still climbing, just at a slower pace. We saw a 3.4% increase over last year, marginally down from 3.5%. So, while it's not accelerating as quickly, it's still rising. This subtle difference is why we saw the market initially spike on the news, only to pull back shortly after. Market Performance In terms of market performance, the Dow has shown continued weakness, being the only index that dipped below its pre-CPI and Fed announcement levels. On the other hand, the tech sector is buzzing again, spurred by the latest AI developments from AAPL. This has kept the Nasdaq and other tech-heavy indices relatively stable. Gold and the Dollar Gold saw a pullback as the dollar gained some ground, but I remain optimistic about its trajectory. The World Gold Council reported positive inflows into global gold ETFs for the first time in a while, indicating a renewed demand. This could signal a potential rise in gold prices moving forward. Putting It All Together So, what’s the takeaway here? The market is still navigating through a complex landscape of mixed signals. While inflation isn’t accelerating as quickly, it's still rising, and the Fed seems poised to keep interest rates steady or even consider a hike — even if they haven’t explicitly said it. The tech sector remains a hot spot, and there's cautious optimism around gold. As always, stay tuned and trade smart. I’ll keep an eye on these trends and how they evolve in the coming weeks. — Geof Smith P.S. Did you miss Stephen and Nate’s trading challenge? [See what they’ve cooked up here](. [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](