Housing Prices Tumble

[] (housing is down, but not out) [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] MARCH 28, 2024 [] [] PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK Housing Prices Tumble: Crash or Correction? Homebuyers hoping for a significant price drop might be disappointed. Over the past 18 months, housing prices have indeed experienced a sharp decline – nearly 15%. This drop is even steeper than what we saw during the peak of the 2007/2008 housing crisis, where prices ultimately fell by 19%. The key difference lies in the speed of the decline. Back then, it took a full two years for prices to reach that bottom. In this case, the nearly 15% drop has occurred in a much shorter timeframe — just 18 months. It’s particularly evident when you look at the steep slope of the decline in this chart: With such a big, fast decline, we thought to ourselves: Are we witnessing another housing crash? We reached out to our resident market expert, Geof Smith, to get his insights. "Is housing crashing? No," says Geof. He goes on to tell us that currently, there's a critical factor missing from the equation we saw in 2008: a lack of supply. Back then, there was an overabundance of homes on the market, leading to a freefall in prices. Today, the housing market faces a persistent shortage of available properties. Geof went on to highlight another key factor: immigration. "The US government has welcomed a significant number of immigrants in recent years – roughly 12 million since the pandemic began. These individuals need housing, and that demand will continue to support housing prices, rents, and the construction of new homes." But still, we had to press him about the current drop we’ve seen. What’s up with that? Geof pointed to a common complaint among homebuyers: affordability. The median price for a home right now sits around $385,000, which can be pretty expensive for a median household income of $74,000. “So it might help drive housing prices a little lower but after housing has gone up 80% in the last 4 years, a 30% would be nothing.” The takeaway? While housing prices have experienced a notable decline, a full-blown crash seems unlikely due to the current supply shortage and ongoing housing demand. Yet, affordability remains a significant challenge, potentially leading to a further, more measured price adjustment in the future. How To Play It Geof went the extra mile and gave us a free trade idea, including exact options criteria. You can grab it — absolutely FREE — inside Geof’s Telegram channel. [Click here to join](. — The Prosperity Pub Team [] [] Small Options Target Big Opportunities! Trading a small account? Blast off your portfolio with low-cost options as low as 25¢! Tom Busby has discovered a way to find some of the cheapest options in the market — yet some have returned 2x to 3x in seemingly no time! [Discover Tom’s brand new strategy right here!]( [] [] SCOTT WELSH’S TICKER TALES Time For Banks? (XP) Since early 2023, there has been a lot of hand-wringing about banks. Why so jittery? The fear of bank failures. We saw it in Silicon Valley Bank last year and we’ve had another recent scare with NYCB this year. NYCB hinted at trouble and its stock gapped down huge. It’s since received a bailout, but tension is still in the air. But at the same time, banks are deeply discounted and appear ready to explode. In short, if a bank isn’t going under, it could be ready for a big move up. XP is in that crowd. Here’s the chart: [] XP has been gathering up energy as it’s gone sideways in a tight channel. A break above $27.02 could unleash a coiled spring upward. We’ll keep an eye on it. Happy trading, — Scott Welsh P.S. As a reminder, these plays are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The charts above use weekly candles and a 30 week simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on [this Ask The Pros episode]( starting at timestamp 20:45. [] [] [] [] MARCH 28, 2024 [] [] PROSPERITY PUB MARKET TALK Housing Prices Tumble: Crash or Correction? Homebuyers hoping for a significant price drop might be disappointed. Over the past 18 months, housing prices have indeed experienced a sharp decline – nearly 15%. This drop is even steeper than what we saw during the peak of the 2007/2008 housing crisis, where prices ultimately fell by 19%. The key difference lies in the speed of the decline. Back then, it took a full two years for prices to reach that bottom. In this case, the nearly 15% drop has occurred in a much shorter timeframe — just 18 months. It’s particularly evident when you look at the steep slope of the decline in this chart: With such a big, fast decline, we thought to ourselves: Are we witnessing another housing crash? We reached out to our resident market expert, Geof Smith, to get his insights. "Is housing crashing? No," says Geof. He goes on to tell us that currently, there's a critical factor missing from the equation we saw in 2008: a lack of supply. Back then, there was an overabundance of homes on the market, leading to a freefall in prices. Today, the housing market faces a persistent shortage of available properties. Geof went on to highlight another key factor: immigration. "The US government has welcomed a significant number of immigrants in recent years – roughly 12 million since the pandemic began. These individuals need housing, and that demand will continue to support housing prices, rents, and the construction of new homes." But still, we had to press him about the current drop we’ve seen. What’s up with that? Geof pointed to a common complaint among homebuyers: affordability. The median price for a home right now sits around $385,000, which can be pretty expensive for a median household income of $74,000. “So it might help drive housing prices a little lower but after housing has gone up 80% in the last 4 years, a 30% would be nothing.” The takeaway? While housing prices have experienced a notable decline, a full-blown crash seems unlikely due to the current supply shortage and ongoing housing demand. Yet, affordability remains a significant challenge, potentially leading to a further, more measured price adjustment in the future. How To Play It Geof went the extra mile and gave us a free trade idea, including exact options criteria. You can grab it — absolutely FREE — inside Geof’s Telegram channel. [Click here to join](. — The Prosperity Pub Team [] [] Small Options Target Big Opportunities! Trading a small account? Blast off your portfolio with low-cost options as low as 25¢! Tom Busby has discovered a way to find some of the cheapest options in the market — yet some have returned 2x to 3x in seemingly no time! [Discover Tom’s brand new strategy right here!]( [] [] SCOTT WELSH’S TICKER TALES Time For Banks? (XP) Since early 2023, there has been a lot of hand-wringing about banks. Why so jittery? The fear of bank failures. We saw it in Silicon Valley Bank last year and we’ve had another recent scare with NYCB this year. NYCB hinted at trouble and its stock gapped down huge. It’s since received a bailout, but tension is still in the air. But at the same time, banks are deeply discounted and appear ready to explode. In short, if a bank isn’t going under, it could be ready for a big move up. XP is in that crowd. Here’s the chart: [] XP has been gathering up energy as it’s gone sideways in a tight channel. A break above $27.02 could unleash a coiled spring upward. We’ll keep an eye on it. Happy trading, — Scott Welsh P.S. As a reminder, these plays are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The charts above use weekly candles and a 30 week simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on [this Ask The Pros episode]( starting at timestamp 20:45. [] [] [] [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub]( [] ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Prosperity Pub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Prosperity Pub are for your informational purposes only. Neither Prosperity Pub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Prosperity Pub is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit [( for our full Terms and Conditions. [Unsubscribe]( This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States [Prosperity Pub](