The Year in Politics, with George Soros, Slavoj Žižek, Nina L. Khrushcheva, and more

A look back at the political issues, risks, and challenges that defined the last 12 months. The Sunday Newsletter [View this message in a web browser]( [PS on Sunday]( DECEMBER 24, 2023 This week, Project Syndicate highlights the political issues, risks, and challenges that defined the last 12 months – and the commentaries that helped readers make sense of them. The Israel-Hamas War, and the dire humanitarian crisis it has created in Gaza, has brought the Israeli-Palestinian conflict back to the forefront of foreign-policy discussions, with commentators like Slavoj Žižek, Abdullah Gül, and Anne-Marie Slaughter offering critical perspectives. Meanwhile, the Ukraine War has continued to rage, with no end in sight – a situation that has been examined by the likes of Nina L. Khrushcheva, Yuliya Tymoshenko, and Rana Mitter. While hot wars undermine security across the Middle East and Europe, the risk that the “new cold war” between the United States and China could turn hot has been top of mind for commentators like Nouriel Roubini, Stephen S. Roach, and Ian Buruma. The situation is all the more worrying, point out Yuen Yuen Ang, Orville Schell, and Qian Liu, because of developments within China, especially its deteriorating demographic outlook and its authoritarian shift under President Xi Jinping. These trends have contributed to a foreign-policy reshuffling in Asia, as Brahma Chellaney, Mohammed Soliman, and Yoon Young-kwan explain, and raised questions – addressed by Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Yi Fuxian, and others – about whether India could become the next Asian superpower. Around the world, threats to liberal democracy, open societies, and the rule of law have raised alarm bells for Jan-Werner Mueller, George Soros, and Kelly Born. As Eric Posner, Antara Haldar, and others note, such threats may well be particularly acute in a deeply polarized US, especially as Donald Trump prepares to challenge Biden in the 2024 presidential election. But democratic deterioration is just one dimension of the “polycrisis” that the world now faces – a crisis that also encompasses not only proliferating conflicts and the rapid development of artificial intelligence, but also climate change. While Emmanuel Macron, Joe Biden, and other world leaders lay out a vision of a just green transition, Mariana Mazzucato and Damon Silvers highlight the critical importance of worker empowerment. Ultimately, however, progress in tackling global challenges like climate change will be impossible without broad-based cooperation. But with the world order in flux, Richard Haass, Ana Palacio, Ngaire Woods, and others explain, this is easier said than done. [PS Holiday Sale: Take $50 off all new subscriptions]( The Israel-Hamas War [The False Choice Between Palestinian and Jewish Liberation]( [Shlomo Ben-Ami]( rejects the facile moralism of those who view the ongoing war through the narrow lens of decolonization. [The Real Dividing Line in Israel-Palestine]( [Slavoj Žižek]( argues that the solution to a conflict dominated by fundamentalists depends on combining two extremes. PS Big Question --------------------------------------------------------------- [Will the Israel-Hamas War Spread?]( [Comfort Ero]( [Negar Mortazavi]( [Djavad Salehi-Isfahani]( and [Sinan Ülgen]( assess the likely behavior of regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey. [The Two State, Two Economy Solution]( [Raja Khalidi]( says that the prerequisite for a lasting political solution in Israel-Palestine hasn't changed in 35 years. [If Europe Could Do It, So Can the Middle East]( [Anne-Marie Slaughter]( shares three lessons from the post-World War II experience of peacemaking between ancient enemies. [The Rules-Based International Order Is Collapsing in Gaza]( [Abdullah Gül]( highlights the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the broader danger of allowing it to continue. The Ukraine War [Putin’s History Lessons]( [Nina L. Khrushcheva]( sees parallels between the Kremlin’s revanchist agenda and Soviet attempts to rewrite the past. [Stealing Russia]( [Anders Åslund]( shows how the war is redistributing massive wealth and resources to President Vladimir Putin and his cronies. PS Longer Reads --------------------------------------------------------------- [Putin’s Dogs of War]( [Dina Khapaeva]( dissects what the growing prominence of the Wagner Group’s mercenaries says about Vladimir Putin’s regime. [What Ukraine Brings to NATO]( [Yuliya Tymoshenko]( explains why the country, once it has defeated Russia, would be an invaluable asset to the alliance. [The Myth of Global Grain Shortages]( [Jayati Ghosh]( argues that efforts to support Ukrainian wheat exports primarily serve the interests of agribusiness giants. [The Return of the Warlords]( [Rana Mitter]( explains why Chinese leaders are paying particularly close attention to the turmoil in Russia. The New Cold War [America and China Are on a Collision Course]( [Nouriel Roubini]( juxtaposes recent developments and current trends with diplomatic happy talk about a “thaw” in tensions. [China’s Precarious Balancing Act]( [Yu Jie]( questions how long Chinese leaders can maintain close ties with Russia without alienating Europe. [Is China Back?]( [Yuen Yuen Ang]( thinks the success of post-COVID economic reopening will prove short-lived without political reforms. PS Insider Interview --------------------------------------------------------------- [Xi Jinping’s Chinese Tragedy]( [Orville Schell]( is interviewed by [Irena Grudzińska Gross]( about the country's increasingly worrisome trajectory, both at home and abroad. [American Tactics vs. Chinese Strategy]( [Stephen S. Roach]( warns that short-termism will never be enough to offset the long-term benefits of strategic thinking. [Is Taiwan Worth Defending?]( [Ian Buruma]( calls on Western governments to commit to protecting the island against Chinese aggression. [What Explains China’s Fertility Drought?]( [Qian Liu]( thinks the country’s leaders have overlooked a major factor in its mounting demographic crisis. The New Asian Order [The Sino-Indian Rivalry Is Reshaping Asia]( [Brahma Chellaney]( explains why China committed a grave error by making a permanent enemy of its largest neighbor. [A New Asian Order Is Emerging]( [Mohammed Soliman]( traces the region’s growing integration to the vision of Abe Shinzō, the late Japanese prime minister. [How China Lost Asia]( [Yoon Young-kwan]( says that the Philippines is only the latest country to seek stronger security ties with the US. PS Big Question --------------------------------------------------------------- [Could the “Chinese Century” Belong to India?]( [Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg]( [Yi Fuxian]( and more predict whether India’s rising star will soon outshine China’s. [India Should Quit the BRICS]( [Arvind Subramanian]( and [Josh Felman]( argue that the economic and political reasons for leaving the group have become overwhelming. [India’s Democracy in Detention]( [Shashi Tharoor]( fears for the country's future after Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi's removal from parliament. [Unmasking India’s Crony Capitalist Oligarchy]( [Pranab Bardhan]( explains how the allegations against billionaire Gautam Adani embody the flaws in India’s political economy. The Erosion of Democracy [Can Democracy Survive the Polycrisis?]( [George Soros]( calls attention to the growing challenges posed by AI, climate change, and the war in Ukraine. PS Longer Reads --------------------------------------------------------------- [Mainstreaming the Far Right]( [Jan-Werner Mueller]( debunks the conventional wisdom about a bottom-up “populist wave” sweeping Western democracies. [Making or Breaking Democracy]( [Michael Ignatieff]( worries that America’s internal divisions will weaken global stability in the runup to the November election. [The Trump Indictment and America’s Political Order]( [Eric Posner]( considers the deeper structural causes and likely consequences of prosecuting a former president. PS Big Question --------------------------------------------------------------- [Could Trump Be a Dictator?]( [Sergei Guriev]( [Aziz Huq]( [Nicholas Reed Langen]( and [Michael Lind]( consider whether US checks and balances can thwart Donald Trump’s authoritarian ambitions. [Ron DeSantis’s Intellectual Apartheid]( [Antara Haldar]( considers what is at stake in the American right’s new education-focused culture war. [Will Generative AI Make or Break Democracy?]( [Kelly Born]( advocates careful regulation of how new tools are applied to electoral politics and information ecosystems. The Climate Challenge [A Green Transition That Leaves No One Behind]( [Emmanuel Macron]( [Mia Amor Mottley]( [Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva]( [William Ruto]( [Joseph Biden, Jr.]( and more set out a vision of global collective action based on solidarity with the world’s poor. [Good Governance Is a Bad Idea]( [Katharina Pistor]( thinks the obsession with technocratic goal-setting and box-ticking has become a dangerous distraction. PS Longer Reads --------------------------------------------------------------- [The First Polycrisis]( [Harold James]( considers important parallels between the world today and the European revolutions of 1848. [Auto Strikes and Climate Change]( [Mariana Mazzucato]( and [Damon Silvers]( explain why the transition to a net-zero economy cannot happen without worker empowerment. [Flipping the Environmental Narrative]( [Christiana Figueres]( explains the importance of bringing the right perspective to bear on recent progress and outstanding challenges. The Future of the Global Order [American Exceptionalism in 2024]( [Joseph S. Nye, Jr.]( identifies three strands of the concept and their implications for US foreign policy after next year’s election. [The New World Disorder]( [Richard Haass]( highlights the growing threat to international stability and calls for effective cooperation. [Rule-Making in a Divided World]( [Ana Palacio]( views this month’s G20 summit as a harbinger of a more fractured international order. PS Quarterly --------------------------------------------------------------- [Pulling Nuclear Powers Back from the Brink]( [Gro Harlem Brundtland]( warns that Russia’s aggression and US-China tensions could result in a new, more complex arms race. [The Myth of Western Decline]( [Chris Patten]( argues that Chinese leaders’ characterization of liberal democracy as decadent betrays their fear of it. [Multilateralism Is Still Better]( [Anne O. Krueger]( thinks the Biden administration is making a big mistake by pursuing economic security through self-sufficiency. [Cooperation or Crisis]( [Ngaire Woods]( reflects on the challenges and upheavals that facilitated the establishment of today’s global order. Project Syndicate publishes and provides, on a not-for-profit basis, original commentary by the world's leading thinkers to more than 500 media outlets in over 150 countries. This newsletter is a service of [project-syndicate.org](. © Project Syndicate, all rights reserved. [Unsubscribe from this list](