Chris Patten on Rishi Sunak, Taiwan, Chinese diplomacy, and more

Patten anticipates more policy mistakes from Xi Jinping, highlights two delusions that have distorted Western policymaking on China, and more. The PS Say More Newsletter | [View this message in a web browser]( [PS Say More]( This week in Say More, PS talks with Chris Patten, Chancellor of the University of Oxford, the last British governor of Hong Kong, and the author of [The Hong Kong Diaries](. To read the full interview – in which Patten assesses the challenges British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces, anticipates more policy mistakes from Chinese President Xi Jinping, highlights two delusions that have distorted Western policymaking on China, and more – [click here](. Chris Patten Says More... Syndicate: Last October, you [warned]( that a “post-peak China led by an all-powerful ruler will almost certainly aggravate global uncertainty and instability.” Recent developments – from the chaotic exit from zero-COVID to the flight of a Chinese surveillance balloon across the United States – seem to support this assessment. Are such episodes likely to raise alarm bells for Communist Party of China leaders – whose “growing nervousness” about the Party’s hold on power is what enabled Xi Jinping’s rise in the first place – or galvanize support for him? Is it already too late for the CPC on turn on Xi? Chris Patten: China will struggle to recapture the GDP growth of the past – even the recent past – owing to economic imbalances, demographic challenges, and Xi’s apparent preference for the continued dominance of state-owned enterprises, rather than the innovative and growth-driving private sector. In a totalitarian system like China’s surveillance state... [Continue reading]( [PS. Subscribe to PS Digital now.]( By the Way... PS: In May 1997, you wrote that the Chinese communists “always act solely in what they believe to be their own best interests, and regard any agreement as a stage in a relationship, not as an immutable conclusion to a negotiation.” Yet “the mush school of diplomacy will be listened to,” so China would “continue to get away with bad behavior” and “therefore go on behaving badly.” Does the recent shift in the West’s approach to China and other authoritarian countries represent a correction in this regard? CP: Two delusions have distorted and enfeebled policymaking on Communist China. The first is that economic and technical change would inevitably produce political change. A few years after China joined the World Trade Organization, then-British Prime Minister [Tony Blair]( spoke of an “[unstoppable momentum]( toward democracy in China. Alas, this turned out not to be the case at all. The second delusion is that China will honor... [Continue reading]( [PS Say More: Sergei Guriev on Putin, Populism, Chinese Repression, and more]( [Sergei Guriev on Putin, Populism, Chinese Repression, and more]( Sergei Guriev assesses the strength of the Russian president’s grip on power, predicts that Xi Jinping’s embrace of personalist rule will lead to policy missteps, urges the West to pursue a strategy of “adversarial engagement” toward modern dictators, and more Guriev is Provost and Professor of Economics at Sciences Po and co-author (with Daniel Treisman) of [Spin Dictators: The Changing Face of Tyranny in the 21st Century](. [Read now]( [PS. Sign up for our Behind the Headlines newsletter to get cutting-edge analysis of the most important new stories.]( [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [LinkedIn]( Project Syndicate publishes and provides, on a not-for-profit basis, original commentary by the world's leading thinkers to more than 500 media outlets in over 150 countries. Receipt of this newsletter does not guarantee rights to re-publish any of its content. This newsletter is a service of [Project Syndicate](. [Change your newsletter preferences](. Follow us on [Facebook]( [Twitter]( and [YouTube](. © Project Syndicate, all rights reserved. [Unsubscribe from all newsletters](.